In the eighties, most of the sales representatives from drug companies were not graduates – most of them who serviced my clinic studied till either Form 5 or Form 6.

Then in the early nineties, the profile of sleas representaives, especially those from multinationals, changed. Majority of them were graduates, many of them local graduates from Science stream but a few were even from business stream.

Then came the 1997 financial crisis.  I remember that I was very surprised to read a card from a sales representative that stated his qualification as law graduate. On enquiring, he answered that there was simply too many law graduates, and many of them who had no  strings/conncetions had difficulty to do chambering with established law firms, and unfortunately he was one of them, and so while hunting for a place to do his chambering ( some sort of housemanship), he decided to work as a sales representative.

I remember at that time, I told the young man that the country was still short of doctors, and that docotrs would have no probelm finding a place to do housemanship in Malaysia. That was not many years ago.

Now, Malaysia is churning out doctors by the thousands. Not  joking, literaly by the thosands. I have lost count how many medical schools are there. At least ten or more, someone told me . 

With the country mass producing thousands of doctors each year, it will come a time when the Health service simply cannot accomodate all of them to do housemanship.

There will be a glut of doctors in the foreseeable future.. AUstralia, with about the same population, has fewer medical schools than Malaysia. But even so, they have a health care system which is way ahead of us..

To have a glut of doctors does not mean that healthcare standard will automatically goes up. On the contrary, a glut of doctors will mean fierce competition and undercuttings..

Even at the moment, private hospitals which have mushroomed all over the places.. We are beginning to have  too many specialists , especially those in secondary care, like general surgeons and physicians.. Those in the tertiary care are not facing much problem now, but if there is a glut of doctors, they too will ultimately be affected.

Private hospitals are finding it difficult to compete. Many of them are now resorting to setting up primary care clinics (like GPs clinics except they are run by salaried doctors from these private hospitals) in many places. The primary function of these primary care clinics is not to treat , but to source patients for these private hsopitals. 

SInce many of the private hospitals are now listed entities, they are now answerable not just the patients, but to the shareholders as well. As a listed entity, the shareholders are not interested to see how many patients are cured , they are more concered with yearly growth of profits, meaning that these hospitals will have to show higher profits year on year. ( Iave repeatedly voiced out that hospitals shuld be not allowed to list, but who will bother to listen to a small voice?)

This year-on-year profit growth will have to come from either one of the 3 methods:

1. Increased number of inpatients .. But with private hospitals mushrooming faster than the growth of the number of people who can afford private healthcare, this is not happening. Hence, the setting up of primary care clinics to source for patients… With increased competition, the doctors that are employed to run these primary care clinics will be hardpressed to refer cases to the ‘mother’ hospitals, and many cases that can actually be treated without hospitalisation will be refered for hospitalisation. In other words, there are  over- referrals.. The unsuspecting patients are the ones that are being squeezed dried by this cut throat competiton, which will be more and more intense.( As an example, a simple cyst removal which cost less than a hundred if done in a clinic will cause the same patient many hundreds if done in a hospital clinic.)

2. Since the number of patients are not increasing much, to get a higher growth and higher revenue means that the hospitals  have to raise their charges year on year. That is why health care is so much more expensive compared to before.

3. Cost cutting resulting in lowering of overhead. SO far this has not been happening, but with a glut of doctors and specialists, do not discount this possibility. With cost cutting, patients will not be getting value for money..

The government should realise that the days when there will be a glut of doctors are not far away. Instead of mass production of doctors, what should be emphasised should be the standard of these healthcare personnels .Those passing out from Universities must be able to diagnose common diseases. But from what we have seen, the standard of local housemen seems to have dropped , so much so that the government has no choice but to increase housemanship from one year to 2 years.

Doctors are tasked with saving lives. We need competent doctors. We do not need to mass produce doctors because we want to change the social fabric of the nation. We have to be colour blind when we choose to educate our doctors. Medical students should be chosen from those with compassion, with an aptitude for doctoring , and not by imposing certain quotas and trying to fill the quotas with second rated materials. Not all stones can be turned into jade..

I think now that we have enough number of doctors , we should emphasize on quality instead. 

We should not be in the business of producing doctors just for the sake of producing them, otherwise there will bound to be adverse consequences later on. Mind you, that day is pretty near..

 

WHO defines ‘health’ as “a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity”.

This means that even if a person if free from some physical diseases, he can still be unhealthy if his or her mental state is not at ease and in a state of well being.

An overworked person who is in mental exhaustion therefore cannot be qualified as healthy. Similarly, a person who is under mental duress, like in the case of a person under detention ( or just as a witness to a case) who is subjected  to prolonged hours of interrogation without rest,  should be  considered unhealthy.

It is against basic human right to question a person who is unhealthy.

In the field of occupational safety, a overworked person often is the cause of accidents because an overworked mind often cannot think properly and thus can cause important judgmental errors leading to accidents.

Similarly, a person deprived of sleep and proper rest cannot be depended on to think rationally and often judgmental errors and erratic recalls may result.

Sleep deprivation , as in the case of round the clock interrogation,  is a form of mental torture that can cause a disruption of mental well beings leading to confusion and disorientation.

Taking a statement from a confused and mentally tired person is  not only unfair but also  a grave miscarriage of justice if a person is coerced into saying something untrue under such a state of duress.

Hence,  a person under interrogation must be given enough rest to ensure that he or she has a clear understanding of the questions and that he or she would be able to think clearly to answer the questions.

Which is  why in most developed countries, there are certain procedures for interrogation and prolonged questioning that may case mental duress is not allowed . There are strict guidelines  since this is considered a matter of basic human rights.

Considering all these, I think the  recent High Court judgment that questioning of witnesses should be confined to office hours should be lauded and all enforcement agencies should adhere to the spirit of this judgment .

To solve a case, there is no substitute to pain staking but thorough investigations, including using modern technology, and not by taking the easy way out and try to force a suspect or witness to say something that under normal circumstances  he or she would not have done so.

This post is written for the sake of the political novice who has just joined politics and may not know certain hidden meanings of phrases commonly used by top politicians. Please bookmark this page as it will be updated as and when new material surfaces. 

Hopefully with this guide, we shall groom a group of future politicians who will be  as savvy as the present batch and hopefully they will continue the great tradition of Malaysian politicians ..

 This is one of the few areas where Malaysia can probably be in the top five of the world and the top ranking should make all of us proud..

WHEN

•  you want to chop someone — reshuffle
•  you are forced to patch up with your enemy — unity plan.
• Patch up with an enemy with great influence – Greater Unity plan.
• talking about your enemy — he is still my friend
•  you want to stab him at the back — he is still my friend but principle more important than friendship
• you want to stay on despite vote of no confidence — still have unfinished work to do for community and country
•  you renegade your earlier promise – circumstances have changed
• you want to call an EGM to challenge the top — democracy at work
• you want to stop the top  from calling an emergency since u have the support of the CC –  following the provision of the party Constitution
• you want to reappoint an old and veteran member – we need experience
• you want to promote a young supporter — party renewal process by  injecting new blood
• getting your own son appointed as CC — meritocracy at work
• your enemy appointing his son to the CC — nepotism
• you want a position — not fighting for position (position is not important) but fighting for principle
•  you want to stop someone taking your position — “just say aloud you want my position lah,  i will let you have it.”
•  you overstay your welcome — community needs me
•  a policy is announced — (even when you have not read about it) this is a people friendly policy
• the same policy is being withdrawn — the government has people’s interest at heart.
• to bodek you superior – he is a conscientious fellow
• when you change side and want to abandon the same superior — he has no conscience
• you wish to travel overseas on public money — to-learn-first-hand study tour for the benefit of the rakyat
• you jump from one party to another — abandon the dark forces and join hands with the good
• your enemy jumps from one party to another – he is a ‘frog’
• lost in a party election – some dark forces sabotage me
• win in a party election – democracy at work. or The better person wins
• all seem lost and party positions are being withdrawn by top leader — cry aloud and use lots of tissues in front of the press

Since 2006 , I have been harping about Malaysia losing the competitive edge and would soon be marginalised by others. Countries such as Taiwan, SOuth Korea have leaped past us, and while we are dawdling in the middle income band since the Asian Financial crisis.

Not only FDI has dwindled, private investments by Malaysians have been decreasing. IN the mean time, a lot of businessmen have invested overseas, and many professionals have migrated to other countries. Many of those educated overseas, including many Malay Scholars, have not returned even after completing their education overseas.

We have languished in the middle income group as we have not been able to be innovative and move up the technological ladder. Malaysians are contented with making money by using cheap labour from neighbouring countries.

It is like running a 400 metre race. Malaysia led the first 100 metres, but was levelled at the 200 hundred mark, and by the 300 hundred, most have gone past us, and before we reached the finishing line, we faltered and ran out of steam and dropped on the asphalt without finishing the race.

Many people have refuted my harping on this marginalisation, and some have labelled me as overtly pessimistic.

The recent report from World Bank on Malaysia confirms what I have been saying all along and in a way, I feel vindicated (but deep in my heart, I would rather be wrong than being vindicated since as a loyal Malaysian, i would like my country to be in the fore front of the world, be a world beater in our economy as well as other fields). There is nothing joyous about being proven right on my observations that the country is no longer competitive. It would be a herculean task to reverse from this slum, and it needs a steely determination to change course and be able to move on again.

I will paraphrase one paragraph of the report here:

 The overriding medium-term challenge is for the Malaysian economy to join the select group of high-income countries. Malaysia has experienced solid growth over the last decades, but has relied on an economic model predominantly based on capital accumulation, although private investment rates never recovered from their 20 percentage point fall after the Asian 1997/98 crisis and are now among the lowest in the region. For Malaysia to climb the next step up the income ladder, it needs to focus on improving the investment climate to raise investment rates and focus on productivity growth. Against this backdrop, the authorities are developing a ‘New Economic Model,’ which will be squarely centered on boosting productivity. Promising reforms have already been announced in the areas of services and foreign direct investment, which will help revitalize private investment.

 

For the whole executive summary, please read here. The full report can be viewed here.(82 pages)

 

Further readings:

Can we become a high income country?

Can Malaysia become a high income country? A macro view of jobs and labour

 

I asked a friend whether he has heard of Namibia. He answered:  an African nation in the southern part of Africa. I asked him what he knows about Namibia, and he answered that he did not know much except that might be a country that is backward, corrupt and with a not so good standard of living.

His answers represent the perception of  a lot of Malaysia about African nations in general.

Most of us would not want to visit that country as a tourist destination.

BUt that is the problems with we Malaysians. We thought we are the centre of the world and we thought that Malaysia is the best place in the world.

Let me tell you this. Malaysia and Namibia actually share the same spot in the corruption perception table 2009. Both countries are ranked 56, together with countries like Samoa and Latvia..These few countries share the same points, obtaining 4.5 out of 10 . It is equivalent to a person sitting for exam and obtaining only 45%, a mark which during our time is considered failure (60 is the passing mark).  Last year, we were placed 47 with a score of 5.1.

The top 5 countries d their scores are:

1. New Zealand   9.4

2. Denmark           9.3

3.  Singapore        9.2

      Sweden             9.2

5. Switzerland      9.0

Hong Kong is ranked NO. 12, and Taiwan is NO. 37. These 2 places were once among the  the most corrupted in the world, but has since moved on to the top ranks  of the least corrupted nations.

SO the myth that Asians are corrupted does not hold water. If Singapore, which has similar culture as Malaysia, can be one of the least corrupted countries, then we must ask ours selves, what went wrong ?

I have written many posts on the evils of corruptions, and lest I be labelled as ‘harping on issues’, i will not repeat all those again.

I think it is suffice for me to  mention that corruption is the mother of all evils, and no nation which is deemed corrupt can rise to the rank of developed countries. Selective prosecution of those deemed corrupted will not change the corrupt culture and as long as the corrupt culture is in place, Malaysia can say bye bye to our dream of becoming a first world country.

For the full table, please click here.

P.S. I was just thinking, at the rate we are sliding down the corruption slide, 9 positions in a year, very soon we will reach the bottom (last position is 180), something our football team has the ‘foresight’ of achieving long time back.

Just 3 months ago, I wrote that BN is likely to lose the Federal government come next election, if the sentiments present then are carried forward to the next election, unless PR does something to shoot themselves in the foot.

PR did just that. The infighting- intra and inter component parties in PR – has been played up by the mainstream media, and people who have voted PR are starting to doubt whether PR could provide a stable government if they come into power.

Even RPK has voiced out and warned PR that people’s support should not be taken for granted. If people got fed up, and many are starting to have this fed up feeling, then PR would not only unable to win the next election, but would face the prospect of implosion..

Yesterday, Malaysiakini in an article quoted this:

Barisan Nasional would fare better than the last general election if the 13th general election is held today, according to Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian.

He said BN may also regain its two-thirds in the 222-seat lower house of Parliament, with rival block Pakatan Rakyat winning about 50 to 60 seats………….

He said Indians approval rating for BN had leapt from poor 35 to 45 percent during March last year to about 55 percent today.

Approval rating for the BN among Malays, said Ibrahim had also shot up from 53 percent on polling day in March 2008 to 57 percent now.

However, he said the Chinese community approval rating to BN had remained unchanged at 35 to 40 percent for the past 20 months.

While I agree that there is some swing of  support back to BN, when I talked to my friends and some of my patients,  and that BN’s fortune is on the rise again after they hit the lowest point after the power grab in Perak early this year, I think the situation is still very fluid, and much will depend on how PR’s people conduct themselves in the next 2 years. If they continue to shoot their own feet, or the feet of their friends, what is predicted by Merdeka Centre might just take place.

I personally feel that the battle will be decided by the new voters. Look at the following figure which was drawn by myself  using data from the internet

 

There will be an increase of 2 million new voters eligible to votes come 13th GE.

How they vote will really decide who is going to occupy Putrajaya after the next election.

Whoever wins the hearts of this group will be certain of winning the popular votes..

By the way, at the Federal level, there will not be any new delineation of seats, since to do so would require 2/3 support from the MPs..

Top 15 International Patent Filings by Country (2005)

The previous article from The Economist has shown glaringly Malaysia’s position on innovative entrepreneurship, or rahter the lask of it.

I would like to post a list  here (from one of the commentators in the enomist article) that shows how far behind we are in innovation or invention:

From an international trade perspective, patent applications are one statistical measure of a nation’s capacity to generate new ideas with potential for global success.

1. United States (46,115 international patent filings)
2. Japan (24,829)
3. Germany (16,002)
4. France (5,736)
5. United Kingdom (5,103)
6. South Korea (4,686)
7. Netherlands (4,530)
8. Switzerland (3,264)
9. Sweden (2,858)
10. China (2,501)
11. Italy (2,351)
12. Canada (2,322)
13. Australia (1,999)
14. Finland (1,890)
15. Israel (1,456)

International filings from northeast Asian countries showed robust growth in 2005. Global filings from Japan increased 22.5%, while applications from South Korea and China improved 31.7% and 46.6% respectively. The average annual increase for all countries in 2005 was 10.7%. Canada’s filings rose 10.3% while America’s increase was 6.4%

Top Resident Patent Application Filings (2004) – per million population

1. Japan (2,884 resident patent filings)
2. South Korea (2,189)
3. United States (645)
4. Germany (587)
5. Australia (479)
6. New Zealand (402)
7. Finland (385)
8. Denmark (347)
9. Norway (335)
10. United Kingdom (320)
11. Sweden (308)
12. Austria (275)
13. France (236)
14. Israel (227)
15. Switzerland (217)

These statistics show that many small industrialized countries such as Australia, New Zealand, Finland and Denmark have above average rates for filing patents. The world average was 148 patents per million inhabitants in 2004. According to this measure, Canada’s score of 125 was below average.

Top Resident Patent Application Filings (2004) – per billion $ of GDP

1. South Korea (116.2 resident patent filings)
2. Japan (107.3)
3. Germany (22.6)
4. New Zealand (18.7)
5. United States (17.7)
6. Russia (17.6)
7. Australia (17.2)
8. Belarus (16.9)
9. Ukraine (14.7)
10. Finland (14.0)
11. Denmark (11.8)
12. United Kingdom (11.3)
13. Sweden (11.3)
14. Israel (10.1)
15. Czech Republic (10.0)

The above numbers are in billion dollars of GDP, where GDP is measured in constant year 2000 U.S. currency at purchasing power parity.

Per dollar of GDP, Japan and South Korea file 5 times as many patent applications as do the industrialized nations of Europe and North America. Canada’s score of 4.3 is far behind the world average of 19.0.

The question is, is there a strict relationship between the number of patent applications and a nation’s population or GDP? And if so, how important are those relationships in helping a country improve its status in international trade?

Sources: World Intellectual Property Organization (www.wipo.int)

Read more: http://internationaltrade.suite101.com/article.cfm/most_inventive_countries#ixzz0WnjA19BP

Where is Malaysia?

The follwoing article is from the Economist and Malaysia is quoted as an example as a failure in innovative entrepreneurship.:

The Economist

Fish out of water

UNEMPLOYMENT is creeping ever higher. In the United States it will soon exceed 10%. In parts of Europe it is closer to 20%. Around the world young people are finding it all but impossible to get a job.

So far policymakers have focused on rescuing the economy from free fall, boosting demand, however indiscriminately, and rescuing failing companies, however expensively (AIG received $180 billion-worth of government support). But policymakers are beginning to turn their minds to the potentially more rewarding question of creating tomorrow’s jobs, rather than trying to save yesterday’s. The buzzwords in government circles are entrepreneurship, innovation and venture capital.

This makes perfect sense, in theory. Innovative start-ups are efficient engines of job creation and long-term economic growth. In America start-ups have accounted for almost all the net job creation in the past couple of decades. In the developing world, new technologies are helping to break the cycle of poverty. An extra ten mobile phones per 100 people in a typical developing country boosts GDP growth by 0.8 percentage points, according to the World Bank, by helping small entrepreneurs flourish.

Governments have also played an important role in igniting entrepreneurship. As well as creating some of the vital infrastructure of innovation by investing in higher education, they have also had a direct hand in driving entrepreneurship itself. Governments helped bring into being the venture-capital industry: witness the work of American Research and Development (ARD) after the second world war or the Yozma Fund in Israel in the 1990s. They have also supercharged high-tech clusters: Silicon Valley was created as much by the Pentagon’s demand for new kit as by freewheeling entrepreneurs. Most of the world’s other great entrepreneurial hubs, from Bangalore to Guangdong, bear the stamp of government intervention.

But replicating these successes is difficult. The road to the entrepreneurial future is littered with failed government schemes. Malaysia’s massive BioValley complex, which opened in 2005 at a cost of $150m, is now known as the “Valley of the BioGhosts”. Dubai’s entrepreneurial hub is awash in a sea of red ink. Australia has little to show for its ambitious BITS (Building on Information Technology Strengths) programme. The European Union’s European Investment Fund, which was started in 2001 with an endowment of more than €2 billion ($1.8 billion at the time), has failed in its mission to burnish the sorry record of the European venture-capital industry.

How can governments do a better job? Two well-timed new books provide some clues: “Boulevard of Broken Dreams: Why Public Efforts to Boost Entrepreneurship and Venture Capital Have Failed—and What to Do About it”, by Josh Lerner, and “Start-Up Nation: The Story of Israel’s Economic Miracle”, by Dan Senor and Saul Singer.

Mr Lerner, a professor at Harvard Business School, outlines some common failures. Too many countries are seized by ambitions that bear no relation to their particular comparative advantages. Although Malaysia had few skilled biologists, its politicians decided to build BioValley on the ruins of Entertainment Village, an attempt to create a Malaysian Hollywood that failed for lack of media nous.

Too many politicians treat entrepreneurship as yet another gravy train. Norway squandered much of its oil wealth investing in new businesses that were founded by the relatives of politicians and bureaucrats. Policymakers are also lax when it comes to designing venture funds. They try to insulate them from risk or allow public investments to crowd out private ones. The Canadian government’s experiment with venture capital failed because the Canadian Labor Fund Program had so much money that it frightened off private venture capitalists, while earning mediocre returns itself. New Zealand’s government, in contrast, did much better because it invested public money in private funds.

Mr Lerner points out that two foolish tendencies are particularly hard to resist when politicians are struggling with high unemployment. The first is the temptation to spread the wealth around to every region and interest group. France’s attempt to transform Brittany from one of its more backward regions into a hive of high-tech activity failed dismally for an obvious reason: entrepreneurial firms cluster in particular places. The second is a suspicion of foreign investors. The Japanese government lavished money on start-ups in the 1990s but was reluctant to embrace foreign venture capitalists. Japan now has one of the rich world’s weakest venture-capital markets.

The country that has led the world in promoting entrepreneurship has also done the most to plug itself into global markets. The Israeli government’s venture-capital fund, which was founded in 1992 with $100m of public money, was designed to attract foreign venture capital and, just as importantly, expertise. The government let foreigners decide what to invest in, and then stumped up a hefty share of the money required. Foreign venture capital poured into the country, high-tech companies boomed, domestic venture capitalists learned from their foreign counterparts and the government felt able to sell off the fund after just five years.

Last year Israel, a country of just over 7m people, attracted as much venture capital as France and Germany combined. Israel has more start-ups per head than any other country (a total of 3,850, or one for every 1,844 Israelis), and more companies listed on the NASDAQ exchange, a hub for fledgling technology firms, than China and India combined. It may not have the same comforting ring as “the Swedish model” or “the polder model”, but when it comes to promoting entrepreneurship, “the Israeli model” is the one to emulate.

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Some of the comments:

Politicians are strange animals. Some of them are very  flexible not unlike the bamboo tress, able to bend forward and backward depending on the directions of the winds blowing.

Politics is also the art of the possible. As CSL has so elegantly stated, the possible can be impossible and the impossible can be possible.

WHo would have thought that CSL , who was booted out of the second biggest component party is now the most powerful person , a power behind the throne as OTK has to bend to him for his support.

Who would have thought that the one now pushing the hardest for another EGM was the same one who has objected so vehemently to OTK calling for a second EGM after coming back from a short holiday,  following the loss of confidence votes in the first EGM?

This same one, LTL, has said that CC was the right forum to solve all the problems, and while what is said is still fresh in people’s minds, he executed a 180 degree turned and said that CC is not the right place to decide now and that the right forum would be a EGM.

Given the flip flop, I can’t help but wonder what would happen  if he becomes the president of the party ? If he can turn 180 degree now to suit himself, what is there to prevent him from turning 180 degree next time if he becomes the head, when his personal fortune is at stake? WHere will be the community interest and party interest?

When he can change goal posts just to suit his own interest in this party crisis, what is there to prevent him from changing the party direction when his own interest warrants the change in direction?

I have said this  just last month : Simple logic will tell us that if they can sell their principles just to move up, they can sell anything to get government positions , including the interests of the party and the community that these people represent.

I hope LTL should realise now that there is a perception in the Chinese community that he is not suitable to be a leader of a party claiming to represent the interest of the community. The perception is that he is only eager for position and power. Whether such perception is right or wrong, politics is really all about perception.

SO what he should do is perhaps to accept the olive branch extended to him by OTK, and remains as a vice-president and perhaps Minister of ‘Hell”, until the next party election in 2 years time., By then, given the short memory and selective amnesia of the party members, he may even have a comeback chance..He may even be able to challenge for a higher post.

OTK needs him now to balance CSL, who is the biggest winner despite having being caught pants down in a DVD last year.

LTL should not listen too much to the other 2 musketeers who have misled him and caused his downfall..

 

A few months ago, in the post “The worst may be over”, I have mentioned this:

Perhaps now is the time, for those who have cashed out earlier, to look at investment opportunities and invest cautiously.

In February , when Aussie dollar went below RM2.40, I did advise some of my friends to look at the opportunity, predicting that it would go up once commodities prices go up since you need Australian dollars to buy those commodities.  

If you have invested 10,000 Aussie dollar then in a foreign curency account  , you would have made a very handsome profit. Yesterday, It touched RM 2.80. You would have made a profit of Rm4000 in just 3 months on a less than Rm 24000 capital. (with some crumbs as interest, too).

There are many other investment opportunities. But be cautious. Use only spare money and make sure you have enough cash to cover any emergency use

For those who look at the money market, they would have noticed that AUstralia currency has gone up since  and has hit Rm 3.10 to one Aussie dollars now.

If you have bought 10,000 Aussie dollar at 2.40 rate ( an investment of 24,000RM), you would have earned Rm7,000 now in a few months.That will give you an earning of 29.1%, in about 7- 8 months. That is excluding the interest rate that you earn. For those who invest big time, 240,000 will bring in 70,000 and 2.4 million will bring in 700,000.

Australia is also the the first country to start raising its rate. Last month, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate to 3.25 percent from a 49-year low of 3 percent.

This is from Yahoo finance:

Australia, a G-20 member, has weathered the worst global downturn in decades better than other developed countries. It avoided slipping into recession — helped by stable banks, demand from China for iron ore and other minerals, and the government’s 42 billion Australian dollars ($37 billion) of stimulus spending.

Asia, a crucial market for Australia’s mineral exports, is rebounding from the downturn faster than the West and could face asset bubbles and a spike in inflation if governments wait too long to withdraw stimulus measures. Rising food prices are already becoming a problem in India. HBSC economists said in a report Tuesday that South Korea, Indonesia and the Philippines are also on the radar as countries particularly vulnerable to an inflation blowout.

Australia’s gross domestic product grew 0.6 percent in the second quarter, accelerating from 0.4 percent growth in the previous quarter. In September, consumer confidence surged to its highest level since July 2007. Since March, Australian shares are up 50 percent.

Australia has a lot of natural resources such as minerals, which has cushioned the economy well this time. But so has Malaysia.

Australia has gold, the price of which has gone up and up.. SO has Malaysia in the form of black gold, which has also gone up quite a bit in price.. Why they have not gone into recession while we have gone into a fairly deep recession with minus growh?

Why is their stimulus program working and ours not really felt by most of us? Our stimulus program is smaller no doubt , but so is our economy. So the question is whether  our stimulus program is targeted at the right groups and have we adopted the right strategy?

Now that the worse is over, we should seriously review whether we have adopted the right strategy and right stimulus.. It will give us invalubale lessons for future management of economy..

(For those who have not bought Aussie dollars, this may not be a good time now, as the up side of AUssie dollars is quite limited as compared to earlier this year. But do not discount Aussie dollar toovertake US dollar in par value, just as once in the 70s).

 

The following is written by our reader klm, in response to my article “Can webecome a high income country?” which can be viewed here.

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Can Malaysia  be  a high income country? A Macro view of jobs and labour .

By KLM, Economist Burok.

What is a high income country?  The World Bank definition is : Income group: Economies are divided according to 2008 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $975 or less; lower middle income, $976 – $3,855; upper middle income, $3,856 – $11,905; and high income, $11,906 or more.

How to get  there?  Go up the value chain, knowledge industry  etc. The strategy is well known and discussed.

But what does it really mean.   One way of looking it  is  to view  from  the point of jobs   and compare it to other countries. 

Comparison of Income Groups By Countries

High income countries have a labour profile of  at least  a third of more if its population in high income jobs and a third or less in low income jobs.  Singapore is the extreme end of this profile with 51% of its population in the high income occupations.  This occupation distribution changes according to the classification of the country.

Occupational Distribution By Countries

 

  (click to enlarge)

High Income : Senior officials, Professionals, Managers,  Executives & Technical workers

Medium Income : Clerical, Sales & Service Workers

Low Income : Production & Transport Operators,  Cleaners & Labourers

	Thailand	Malaysia	Taiwan	Singapore
Classification	Lower Middle Income	Upper  Middle Income	High Income	High Income
GDP/Capita(2008)	4,400 USD	8,324  USD	18,966 USD	44,113 USD

Distribution of occupations by population

Singapore
Singapore saw a rapid change in the distribution of occupations, especially in the high income jobs, with  51% of the population in the high income job category , the highest in the developed countries.  The change is fueled by migration of knowledge workers  from Malaysia and other countries.

Malaysia

The changes in the distribution of occupations in Malaysia is moving  slowly. This is an indication of the lack of structural changes in its industries reflecting in the slow demand for  knowledge workers.  This is already well known issue.  Slow demand and low pay for knowledge workers led to migration of these workers to other countries – the Malaysian brain drain problem. 

Occupation Distribution of Employed Residents 2001 to 2008

Conclusion

It is obvious that to become a high income country, the distribution of occupations   need to  evolve with  more than  a third of the population  in high income jobs.  This requires industries that use more knowledge workers and the ability to supply high quality knowledge   labour.   It was reported that Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng told Parliament recently that the state lost US$3 billion (RM10.2 billion) worth of foreign investment because it could not “commit to having 1,000 engineers”.

Recently the PM had acknowledged the fact that Malaysia had achieved success in the past by growing an industrial base and expanding its agricultural sector, he emphasised that more measures were needed to boost the economy and that the country can no longer rely on what had worked  in the past.

What  mix of high , medium and low income occupations is a question for the New Economic Model of Najib. 

……………………

An excellent article backed with facts and figures. Thanks klm.

In 1969, the then ruling party, the Alliance aka the Sailing Boat, suffered a big setback in the general election. Penang and Kelantan were won by Gerakan and PAS respectively, and there were uncertainties in Perak and Selangor.. What followed is the watershed event of May 13.

 

In June 1974, the then PM , Tun Razak, the father of present PM, went to China. That was a big news in Asia, since at that time, CHina was totally isolated, and was not even admitted to UN yet. ( The seat in UN was occupied by Republic of CHina, otherwise known as Taiwan).

 

The 1974 visit was a successful strategic move.

 

The visit then gained a lot of goodwill from the CHinese Malaysian voters, and in the 1974 GE, held in AUgust just 2 months after the CHina visit, BN won big , 135 seats out of 154, with only 19 seats going to the opposition.  The China visit played a big role in enhancing the profile of the then PM as a statesman, especially among the CHinese Malaysian voters then, many of whom originated  from CHina (like both my parents).

 

Well, seems like history is  repeating itself this time. In MArch 08, BN suffered a big set back , losing the popular votes and 5 states to the opposition. The present PM, after assuming office in April, went to visit China in JUne and hardly 4 months have passed, President Hu is now on invitation to visit our country.

Our King welcoming President Hu (pic from XinHua)

 

Will there be an election and is this invitation to visit timed to coincide with any impending election?

 

What worked well 45 years ago may not work now, as this is a totally different world altogether. Most of the CHinese Malaysians are Malaysian born ( 2nd or third or more generations). Most of us think of Malaysia first . China to us is just another country albeit one in which our (meaning Chinese Malaysian) culture originated. One example is that whenever Malaysia plays CHina in sports, we cheer Malaysian players and not the Chinese players..

 

Recently, there was an uproar in Chinese blogosphere when Minister Mentor of Singapore openly said that US’s presence is needed in Asia to counter-balance China.. Many mainland CHinese were upset. But to me, A Chinese Singaporean should always put Singapore’s interest first, just like a Chinese Malaysian should always put Malaysia first.

 

So the visit to China by our top leader  is treated by most Malaysians like a visit to any other country. NO goodwill will probably be earned by the mutual exchange of visit.. The China-born in Malaysia is now a very small minority and even they would probably not be swayed to vote for BN just because Chinese president visits Malaysia.

 

Whoever wins the hearts of the Chinese Malaysians will win their votes. The Chinese Malaysian voters are a practical lot, and most will be influenced by a good economy , the ability to ‘cari makan’ in a level playing field,  a low crime environment, a good school system for thier children  and  good governance.

 

In fact, this is what a citizen of any country look forward too. A fair treatment, a good environment to earn their livings and a place where their basic rights are protected and respected.

 

Coming back to the issue of election.

 

Personally, i do not think that there will be an election but if the opposition continues on their present path of shooting their own feet, resulting in an implosion and breaking up of the coalition, do not discount an election next year. IN any case, I think BN will go for a State election in Perak first, most probably next year, and the result there would determine whether there will be an early 13th GE or not.

 

Can Malaysia achieve  9% growth per year? Can we become a high income country by 2020?

Everything is possible in this world, but for Malaysia to achieve a consistent 9% growth, we need completely new thinking in both private and public sectors. We need innovative entrepreneurship, a good environment with minimal red tapes, meritocracy and good workers well versed in the English language.

We need to change our model from a low cost manufacturing centre where most of our industries and businesses depend on cheap foreign labour, to one that is based on knowledge and innovation.. In other words , we need a knowledge based business as well as labour community.

We need an environment that is free from rampant corruption, and a public service that is friendly to the businessesand practises good governance.. We need to have minimal interference from politicians or well connected people, and we need to do away with monopolistic control of businesses.

Knowledge based economy means a shift from the old fashion assembly of goods and products, to one that is based on research, knowledge, skill.

We need  to be able to not only assemble the products, but also to  have the knowhow to manufacture the products. Even in the profession, we need to innovate.

In a knowledge based economy, you need to have hardware such as properties, technology, equipment and financial resources.

More importantly , we need to have the soft ware — human capital . Human capital means that we must have  a workforce that has skills and correct work attitude. Skill is important and more importantly is the correct work attitude which will enable the work force to be resilient, innovative and daring to take up challenges. A workforce that not only works but also think. A workforce that can complete the assigned tasks, as well as ask why the need for such tasks.

So far, sad to say, we may have the hard ware , but we definitely do not have the software (human capital) that can propel us forwards to the forefront of Asia.. Our work force simply does not have the skills and the work attitude to produce innovation that is the key to a knowledge based society.

Our best university is not even in the top 150.. We are mass producing university graduates, but most of them are not really thinking individuals that can work as  stand-alone and produce new products or new inventions.

We have plenty of good graduates from overseas but unfortunately these innovative human resources are grabbed up by foreign countries and industries which treasure their expertise and attitude more than our own government.

 To produce innovative graduates from our own universities are easier said than done.. We simply do not  have the faculties to produce them.. When the teachers and lecturers are mediocre, you get mediocre graduates.

The quality of teachers and lecturers cannot be changed within a day or even a year or even five years. It can be achieved in a decade or 2 perhaps, only if we adopt meritocracy right from our primary schools all the way to tertiary institution now..It is like planting a tree. You need time for the tree to grow and you must provide the nutrients and correct environment for a plant to grow to a tree, and to have a tall tree,you must have all the trees competing for sunlight.

So when I look at all these hurdles, I do not think we are able to achieve the 9 % growth within these couple of years.

Having said so, we need a start somewhere, and if the government is sincere to change our economy to a high income one, we need to adopt meritocratic principles immediately , from primary all the way up …

For a start, perhaps the 2 tiered matriculation must be done away and university entrance must be based on true merits… but I am prepared to accept a reserve quota of 20% for those from poor family background and those from rural areas, irrespective of ethnic origins.– but these 20% too must achieve the minimal standards of entry.

Another important aspect is that we must have freedom of choice to enable healthy competition and meritocracy. By freedom of choice, we must  maintain the differing streams in our primary schools, so that parents can choose which is the best .. And with choice come the pressure to do well, and schools of different streams must buck up and compete for enrolments. With choice, we will have meritocracy. With meritocracy, we will have the good softwar that we are so glaringly lacking now.

We have lost so much time and now is the time to act .. Just talk alone will not convince the people that  we are serious to become a high income country..

We have been overtaken by Taiwan and South Korea, and if we do not buck up, we will soon be overtaken by Vietnam, Thailand.

If you are skeptical that this will happen,  you don’t have to look far; just look at  our football team.

 

 

Previously,  I have written some comments on credit card debts and that the issuing of credit cards have been too liberal in Malaysia.

Many people carry more than 1card, and some even have 5-6 credit cards in their wallets.

Step into any supermarket, or lately even outside GSC theatres, you will find sales personnel from banks waving applications forms at you, and ‘pestering’ you to apply for a card from their banks. In most cases, they will tell you that it is pre-approved and that you only need to give them your ic and maybe some info about our bank accounts. There is also the promise of te card being free for life and so on.

Many people, especially young men recently out in the job markets, then to spend more with credit cards, and thus build up debts which later they find difficult to service. Many of them get another card and transfer the debts to the other cards and buy time for repayment.. Credit card bankruptcy has thus been on the rise. Of course, banks are laughing to their ‘vaults’, since interest is high for credit card debts..

In the past I have voiced out that the government must have strict guidelines regarding the issuing of credit cards .. There must be a certain minimal financial qualifications– say a basic pay of certain amount or bank savings or proof of ownership of assets —  for eligibility to apply for a credit card.

It is good to have some form of stricter control towards credit card.

Having said so, I think the government has overdone things by charging a levy on every credit card. A RM50 will be levied on every principal card and RM 25 on every supplementary card from  next year.

The intention may be good but it is like an overkill, and i believe almost everyone in the job markets, as well as many retirees will be hard hit by this ruling.

In my humble view, the levy should only be slapped on cards other than the first card that a person carries. A person should be allowed to have his first card exempted from this RM50 levy, and all supplementary cards associated with the first cad should be exempted as well. For subsequent cards, the levy can be tiered, so a second card be chargedRM50 and a third card Rm100 and so on, to discourage a person from holding too many cards.

Logistically, it will not be a big problems since every financial info is no on line and banks  have been exchanging info on credit worthiness of their customers..

For a person to carry a credit card is no more luxury, as long as the person has the ability to control his spending and pay. The world is going cashless, and it is also safer to shop with a credit card than cash.

Many people also give their children supplementary cards especially if the children are overseas studying. Not for them to spend, but to act as a safety net, in case of emergency and they suddenly need to spend more than what they have in banks ( like in a medical emergency).

Most cards give the users  monthly statements which can serve as a sort of record keeping for the card holders, and it sometimes enable them to plan better on their spending.

Credit card also enables card users to pay bills online, and thus save travelling time and waiting time.. If more people use credit cards to pay bills, it can help to conserve petrol, and even help alleviate traffic congestions.

So credit cards, for those who are financially sound, are as necessary as cash..

Someone posted this question to me: What is the best way to help the hardcore poor?

DO we need to give wealth to them, say, by giving them a lot of cash?

That comes back to the basic principle which I have used umpteen times. Do we give our children fish, or do we teach our children to fish? Give them a lot of fish without teaching them how to fish will help them over the short period, but once the fish has been eaten or becomes rotten, they are back to square one.

SO the best way to help the hardcore poor is to educate them.

Education does not mean they must be clever enough to be university graduates. No. Not everyone has the aptitude to be good enough to get into universities. Of course, for those who are eligible but are unable to enter tertiary education, scholarship should and must be given, if they are from families of hardcore poor.

But for others from hardcore poor who does not have the aptitude for academic study, education can mean training in the various skills, and this type of training  can go a long way to lift them up from poverty.

Without education, they will remain as odd jobs and manual workers and their children will grow up like them and the cycle will repeat and repeat itself. The cycle needs to be broken through teaching them skills that can earn a higher income and hence towards a better future.

IN principles, teach them certain skills and then help to  start them on their career using these skills.

For example, for those who are almost illiterate, teach them how to drive and them give them individual taxi license. Then give soft loan for them to own a taxi, and then these drivers can slowly pay instalments to own their own taxis , instead of like the present moment, when they are driving for big consortium which holds all the licenses and charge an exorbitant rental rate to literally squeeze these taxi drivers dry…

Let them be their own boss, and then they use the rental money to pay instalments and be their own boss one day.

The one who are good with their hands, train them to be craftsman like carpenters , painters and builders, electricians, or plumbers.. Then provide them help  to start small businesses that  provide these services..

For the rural poor,  a new scheme that is based on the present Felda scheme can be implemented, but instead of only helping one ethnic group, this new scheme is tailored to those below poverty line irrespective of race and religions.

I think the emphasis of future budgets should be tailored  to help the hardcore poor. Get these people up from poverty to middle class, and then will have a bigger group of spenders and economy as a whole can benefit since when these people  become richer, they are going to consume more and more…

The whole mindset must be changed from giving help to a particular race to giving help according to social class.. When help is rendered according to social class,  the poor from all ethnic groups will benefits..

Then we can have true unity …

In triple jump, a jumper has to accelerate, hop, step and jump.

The step must not exceed the jump line, otherwise the jump will be considered invalid. So the athlete needs to prepare himself well, time himself well before executing this hop, step and jump sequel.

You cannot just hop and then jump without the step…

In real life, often those who are just one step behind the top leader moved too fast and like the triple jumper who did not time himself well and stepped on the jump line, these people who are in a hurry to ascend often fail to execute their moves properly and their move, like  the jump,  is considered to be ‘foul’.

Looking at history, there are plenty of examples. Even Brutus , who famously stabbed his mentor , Julius Caesar, did not get to become Caesar and had to flee Rome and became an exile…

In recent history of China, Lin Biao , who was anointed to be the successor by none other than Chairman Mao himself, had to flee and died in a plane crash in 1971, when he tried to stage a coup to overthrow Mao who got winds of LIn’s plan and moved first.

In MCA, where a political stage-play is being played out, the No 2 in the president camp ( NO. 3 in party hierarchy) moved too fast. Seeing that the president was down ( but actually not yet out) after the EGM , he moved to try to take advantage of the situation and tried to triple jump to be No.1, not through election by grassroots, but through bargaining and horse-trading within the leadership itself.  He must be cursing himself now… He failed to learn from the examples in history..

His reminds me of the story that after seeing a man fall into a well, another man who was around the well, threw a big stone into the well instead of trying to rescue the person who fell… This is supposed to be the one of the worst types of human behaviour.

Some people told me that greed for power must have blinded him, and with  a few  other jokers-schemers behind pushing him, he made the biggest mistake in his life and is now fighting for his political survival. Indeed the position of Minister of “Hell” seems to be really under a curse, and whoever sits there would not have a chance to move up…

How things have a way to work out. The No. 2 that was sacked by the presidential council is now back in his post, and the NO.1 who has been trying to kill off No. 2 is now friendly with No. 2 and actually depended on NO.2 ’s support to consolidate his own position and fend off the challenges from the very friends around him.

Politics is all about interest. Either national interest, or community interest or party interest. Talking about interest, perhaps i should tell you a true story about a great soldier, statesman and patriot.

During the Second World War, General De Gaulle, the young tank commander who made a name for himself writing about tank warfare,  fled to UK after the fall Of France  and after his boss Marshall Petain  worked out a peace plan with Hitler to form the Vichy Government ruling the Southern part of France. .He was a junior minister/officer, and as a lone voice, he established  Free France in London and became the rallying figure for those French who were opposed to Hitler and Vichy government in France.

De Gaulle used to criticise his British counterparts despite the help given to him by Britain, , and so much so that a British minister complained to him that ‘ we are your friends not your enemies”. De Gaulle famously replied ” France has no friends , we have only interest!”. That was the saying of a great man and he indeed fought only for France’ s interest.

Now that MCA is more stable, personal interest should be put aside, and let National interest take over.. By national interest, I mean the PKFZ case, which we should allow the Transport Minister to dig , dig and dig… until the whole truth is out…PAC already has mentioned a few names .. but are there any others ?   Many people outside believed so and if so, then we must leave no stones unturned..

 

As a person who calls a spade a spade, and who gives credit where credit is due, I think the PM gave a  good speech yesterday at the Gerakan National Delegates Conference.

The delivery was good, and no doubt he is a much better speaker than his predecessor. He spoke without looking at any script, well spirited,  gesticulated and articulated very well. He  was also very humourous. 

By any standard, he is a formidable speaker, and I think I am quite qualified to say that because  I was a former Toastmaster and was once the president of a Toastmaster club, and I have been invited to judge and evaluate speakers of other toastmaster clubs as well as speech competitions before.

He said it loud and clear ” I am not the prime minister for the Malays only; I am the prime minister for all Malaysians” and when he said that, he was gesticulating with a firm voice, giving an impression that he is committed and speaking from his heart..

Many of those present told me that they were impressed and felt that his message is good.

I am impressed too. But while I wanted to believe, there is this nagging feeling that this might be like another 2004 , when the then PM spoke about being a PM for all and that people should ‘work with him ‘ and not for him. The then PM won th biggest maority in 2004, only to lose the popular votes in Peninsular Malaysia 4 years later.

Is this going to be like 2004, when pure rhetoric was given but nothing concrete was seen later on?

For the sake of Malaysians and the future of Malaysia, I hope that all that was spoken will be put into action without delay, without fear or favour,  and that the government can become truly  all inclusive, with fair and equal treatment meted o to everyone irrespective of race and religion.

Talk must be walked and that too must be done without delay. And the first thing perhaps is to merge all racial parties into a single nonracial entity and racial politics should be discarded by all.

After 2004, when expectations were built to so high, disappointment set in and disenchantment  became so great that all of us wanted a change for better.

I shall wait and see whether the real changes will be implemented…..ANd i hope those power that be realised that this would be their  last chance, and if they do not keep to their word for change, they would definitely be changed..

A friend asked me: What is typical of Malaysians?

Well, being Malaysian all my life, and that is more than half a century long, I think I may be qualified to say something. Despite the differences in colour, faiths, there are many similarities among the difference groups of Malaysians.

For one thing, they like to use the word ‘lah’. So What’s wrong lah? This is the beauty of Malaysian language lah..

To know the psyche of a person, maybe the best way is to see how they drive. Psychologists will tell us that a person can be very polite when meeting people, and can be the perfect gentleman, but once inside the protective cocoon of his car,  he will show his true self and true colour..

So you can see whether a person is impatient, ‘kiahsu’, ’stressed’, mischievous’ or aggressive by noting the way the person drives. Similarly, by observing the action of majority of drivers, we can judge the collective psyche of a people.

Malaysian drivers do not stop at zebra crossing. Unlike their counterparts in the West, or even Singapore, or even Phuket of Thailand, people speed when they see you walking towards a zebra crossing. Even when you are standing at the start of the crossing, they will not stop for you. When the odd driver stops and allows you to cross, the cars behind him will be blasting their honks… this is typical of many Malaysian drivers.

these  people will probably be run over in Malaysia ( pic from eta.co.uk )

More and more commonly, at traffic lights, when the green changes to amber, cars will not slow down as they are supposed to, but instead, you can see drivers revving up their engines and speed through, even when the car is a 20 year old junk, and even when such driving will burn a big hole in their pockets as the car will consume more petrol in sudden acceleration.

Not to be outdone, there are this group of kiahsu drivers who look at others’ traffic light instead of their own set of lights. When the other set turns red,(or even amber) and before their own set turns green, they will be shooting through like a F1 car.

Just imagine, with one set of drivers shooting through the traffic light when light changes to red, and the opposing set of drivers on the go before their light changes green, what will happen? …You do not need Nostradamus to tell you…  a collision of course.

Then there are the Malaysian habits of holding steering wheel with one hand while the other more ‘important’ hand will be holding the ‘more important’ handphone to their ears and chatting…Even police summons will not dampen their habits of holding ‘important’ conversation over the phones while driving.. I have a phobia for this type of driver, and whenever I see in the rearview mirror someone holding a handphone and driving behind me, I will immediately change lane to let him pass..

Queuing cutting is the norm for most Malaysian drivers.. Nevermind by cutting queue, you are going to slow a whole lane of vehicles behind you down… Your time is apparently more precious than the sum of all the time wasted by all the other drivers behind you because of your queue cutting.

Then there is this habit of double or triple parking right in front of the place you want to go to, even though further down the road , there are plenty of empty parking spaces. You may save your few minutes walking, but you will be wasting the time of many drivers who have to slow down and squeeze through the narrow space due to your double parking. Actually,  by walking a few yards more a day, you may delay your ‘heart attack’ by a few years..But if you choose to have  a heart attack early by double or triple parkings and walking less, then perhaps this is what we called Karma?

What about launching ‘missiles’ out of the car window when driving? It can be plastic, paper bags, tissues, etc etc . The worst kind of missiles  will be that of spitting out of their windows, or throwing cigarette butts out without putting the flame out first…. There is no qualms about littering at all.  But  then these drivers may argue that even cars with Singapore plates have been noted to do so in Malaysia, even though they will never do it down in their own country.

 I have mentioned before about some drivers going against the traffic into  one way roads before (getting common nowadays) , so I am not going to repeat here.

ANd what about this? Some time in the middle of the night, you stop at a red light , but the cars behind you will sound their honks because they think your are an idiot to stop when there is no on coming traffic,  nevermind that you are just trying to be good citizen and obey the law?

Most Malaysian drivers have done this..

The driving behaviour of Malayians tell us something of us as a people.This collective psyche tells that most Malaysians would not mind breaking the laws if the ‘law’ is not looking; we are also self centred and self caring…… Any wonders why we have so much corruptions and rotten values here?

We have in fact a lot of similarities as Malaysians, and these similarities should have given us enough ground to be one people , since we are so similar in our driving behaviours , which tell us more about a people than anything else.

Why are we still harping on race, colours, and religions?

Why are we still harping on our differences despite the fact that we are so similar in our psyche as a people?

How to survive as No.2

 Today I will post part 2 of the survival guide penned by klm: (for part 1 , click here)

The No.2 position is a dangerous place. Either you are very good or you are dead. There is no two way about it.  Keep your wits with you,   keep your eyes in the front and back, top and below and follow these rules.  With some luck, you will be  fine.

1. No.2 is constantly under suspicion of being a traitor to the No. 1. 
2. No.2 must constantly plot to overthrow No. 1. You are forced to do this for your survival.  If you don’t want to plot against No.1 then you are dead meat.
3. No. 2 must always put on a cherubic face – saintly, wise and constantly singing the praise of No.1. 
4. You must be a skillful actor. If you cannot act, get out of politics.
5. Use surrogates to strike at No.1, Use only those that cannot be traced back to you. 
6. Undermine the support of No.1. Subvert his supporters to your side. There is such a thing as your enemy’s enemies are your friends
7. Have spies and other means to listen in to No. 1 to:

(a)  get early warning if and he decide to strike at you

(b)  learn of No. 1 decisions so that you can sing praise of his wise decisions even before he announced them.

1. In this age of the Internet, you and your family must appear to look whiter than white. Hide your skeletons securely and out of sight.  If you cannot hide your secrets, get out of politics.
2. Never have your tryst in the same place too often. Predictability is bad for  your health. 

10.  Never be seen as too friendly with No. 3.

11.  As No. 2 the supporters are either for you or him. Build and consolidate your support. Promise the heaven and promise the hell – richness and plunders (for your supporters)   when you win and fire and brimstone (for the other supporters) when you win.

12.  You only have one chance to strike at No.1 Chose your time and place. Patience is a virtue. When you strike, make sure there are no prisoners. If the wind is not blowing your way, then do nothing.

How to survive as No.3

Being No. 3 put you on the path to power and wealth. Play your game right and you will get there. Keep your wits, keep your eyes to the front and back, and learn well. Follow these rules and you will do well.

1. No.3 is a good position. No.2 is sandwiched between No.1 and No.3 like a bound crab. No 2. has to watch front and back.  No.3 has only to watch his back.
2. Time to whitewash your closet. Bury your and your family’s skeletons. If you cannot bury the skeletons, get out of politics. 
3. You have enough time to remove the stink from any dead body before you get to be No.1. Do not try anything until your closet is white. 
4. No. 3 must be seen as loyal, honest and trustworthy. So start acting. If you cannot act, take lessons. This is essential for your survival. 
5. Build your support from all bases. Do not be seen as a threat to anyone. 
6. Patience and caution must be your virtue. Never overplay your hand. Test the water before putting your feet in, You never know what is lurking under the water.
7. Bid your time. Get No.1 to fight with No.2. Get out of their way. There is a Swahili saying that goes: “When two elephants fight, the grass suffers; and, when the same two elephants make love, the grass also suffers.”
8. Be absolutely sure if and when you strike. You must kill 2 birds with one stone. You cannot afford to take any prisoners. But if you are not prepared for No.1 and No 2 hitting back, then back off. You have one chance and one chance only of striking. Failure is not an option if you do strike.
9. If you caught red handed, blame the committee. There is safety in numbers.

10.  If all else fail , you can jump from the 14^th floor.

Conclusion

Do not blame me if things do not work out.  It must the poor execution of the tactics.  The Strategy may be mine, but the execution is yours

Preamble

The following is not from me, but it was written by our reader, klm, and i think those who frequent this blog would have no problem recognising his genius.

He sent it to me but I thought I would share it with all of you out there, especially some of my readers are from Most Chaotic Association and this association is currently embroiled in endless fights and maneuvering :

This is the guide:  (copyrighted to Mr klm)

About the author

The author is a member of the armchair politicians,  people who talk and comment but never put into practice what they say. Nevertheless, the cockeyed view of  an armchair politician  put sense in the insane world of politics. Being out of the cauldron, armchair politicians  see things better , and every now and then drop a gem or two of wisdom on the bewildered  and frantic political scene.

With  the  cockeyed view  from the arm chair,  the author had drafted these set of survival rules ,written with cynicism, scepticism  and every ism between.  The hope of the author is that one or two  good ambitious politicians ( or is that an oxymoron) can survive and do some good.

Politics is a spectator sport, much like a football game. For those new to this sport, this can also be the jungle guide. Unlike football, there are no play rules in politics, only survival rules.

 An (ambitious)   politician is a seeker or holder of public or party office, who is more concerned about winning favor or retaining power than about maintaining principles- www.dictionary.reference.com . The Office is everything. An ambitious politician’s goal is to win the Office if not there or to defend the office if already there.  An ambitious politician is a shark amongst other sharks. Surviving political fights is of the highest priority. An ambitious politician must have  extremely strong self preservation instinct.

This survival guide is distilled from the observations made of the fights in political parties. It encompass things did or should have been done by politicians in their fights. The lessons learned formed  the golden rules that ambitious politician should not leave home without them.

The golden rules are divided in three sections appropriately named :

1. Survival rules for No.1 (of political party)
2. Survival rules for No. 2 (of political party)
3. Survival rules for No. 3 (and for other levels of political party)

Politics is not for the faint heart. If you have a misguided sense of honour, morality and loyalty and find it abhorring to follow these rules, then you are in the wrong place.

Maybe the force be with you and see you in the Office.

How to survive as No. 1.

Congratulation.  You made it to be No. 1 of the party.  Now, how long can you survive in this position.  Keep your wits with you,   keep your eyes in the front and back, top and below and follow these rules.  You will be fine.

1. The top priority of being No. 1 is to survive the battles within the party. Many of your “friends” in the party want you dead. With you gone, they will go up.
2. In politics, winning is the only thing. A wounded politician is like a wounded shark. You will get devoured by your own kind.
3. No weakness must be shown. You are in a school of sharks. . Any weakness is fatal. If you have to,  sacrifice a colleague or two  to save yourself.
4. Your colleagues are not your friend. They are a bunch of sharks. 
5. Never trust any one fully. Not even your closest confidant. Always check with other sources, anything you are told.
6. Ambitions in your colleagues are fine. But always watch for tell tale signs of ambition not in checked, especially your No 2 and No 3. etc. 
7. Be suspicious of everybody. If your No. 2 and No 3 are pals. Check them out. Be suspicious if your colleagues become friendly to each other   all of a sudden. When they are friendly to each other, something bad for you is brewing. When they are invited to high teas without you, a bomb is going to be blown under your chair. Always be alert to No.3 causing a fight between you and No.2. This is the kill 2 old birds with one stone strategy. 
8. Put someone dumb in the No. 3 position. Then set No.3 to fight with No. 2. (That is why you need a dumb person). Then you will be left in peace.
9. Because of 4,5,6 &7, always have something on your colleagues to keep them in line. Have a dossier prepared for everyone. A person without sin means either (a) person is very good at keeping secrets or (b) person is a saint. Either one means danger to you. 

10.  Always be ready to strike. But never show your hand until the moment you are ready to strike.

11.  Never let people read your real feeling. The No. 1 is expected to be a good actor. Get on with it. It comes with the job.

12.  Always give your respect and honour the other person, until the moment you strike. Respect is very important. If you must stab somebody in the back, do it with utmost respect.

13.  Have spies everywhere to listen to your subordinates and enemies plotting. Make the wall have ears. This is your early warning system. Strike at them before they strike at you

14.  Subvert the supporters of your subordinates and enemies. Secretly, get them to switch allegiance to you . Get them to spy for you. Get them to subvert these people.

15.  When you strike, strike quickly. hard and strong. Brutality prevents others from trying to unseat you.

16.  Never tolerate a rebellion. Crushed it with full might. Take no prisoners with the ring leaders. Treat their followers well and they will switch allegiance to you.

17.  If you make a statement, make sure you can deny what you said. This is called plausible deniability. If you make an agreement, make sure you can get out of the agreement.

 

(part 2 and 3 will be published later, please watch out for the instalments, and you are free to print out to use for yourself, but remember , this is copyrighted and so please do not sell th scripts as well as the ideas to others).

Recommended reading : Thiswas written by me a few yearsa go, and is very similar to the above:  ‘This is how politics is played’ . Memorise this would help anyone in parties, tongs, NGOs, and some clan associations…BTW, this has been and remains to be one of the top ten posts of this blog.

What is happening?

Not too long ago (in June 09) , we have the collapse of a stadium

I have written a post on this collapse ( “fall roof and pothole syndrome” ) and I have said this:  ’be careful when you step into a new public building, and be prepared to run the race of your life if you see any cracks appearing before you’.

Now, another disaster has happened. A suspension bridge, newly built, collapsed resulting in the death of 1 student and another 2 are still missing.

pic from nanyang

Apparently, one side of the support was pulled out together with the concrete foundation , just like a weed pulled out from a grass field. But this is no weed. This is a suspension bridge made of metal on a concrete foundation. How could this ever happen?

I have seen  bridges in China that are already many many hundreds of years old and not even made of concrete, but of stones lining against each other.

Take an example. This bridge in China is already many hundred years old. It is still as solid and as safe as before..

or this

 A wood bridge many many years old but still as solid and trustworthy as before..

The bridge builders now have access to modern technology, modern design, modern science and modern tools to make safe bridges, and yet they cannot even made a bridge that is safe for students to cross.

So something is very wrong. Very very wrong somewhere. We do not even need the AUditor General  to report . 

We can safely conclude  that there is definitely negligence  somewhere or ‘corner-cutting’ for this 1 bridge to collapse. And because of this negligence/corner-cutting , lives are lost.

Imagine, if you are the parents and friends of these parents, what would you feel? Probably blaming themselves for sending the children to the so-called 1Malaysia camp. To these children and parents  , it might as  well be a death camp..Sorry, I am using harsh words, but I am very upset to see innocent lives being lost, because of ’ tidak  apa’ attidtude or ‘greed’.

I hope that a thorough investigation can be carried out. Not only that , a new system of awarding contract and supervision must be put in place, a system that ensures that good practice are being put in place and follows strict guidelines in constructions and buildings.

Over all, we need to urgently do away with the ‘rot’ culture, and bring back some semblance of excellence fast.

 

recommended reading: Manhole syndrome

 One of the indices that compare the purchasing power of a country is the Big Mac Index, compiled every year by The Economist.

The BIg Mac index is the amount of local currency that is required to buy a big Mac in that country.

According to the index, Malaysia has one of the cheapest Big Mac. Since I do not subscribe to the Economist online, I have to post the list from Wikipedia:

Five most expensive (as of 4 February 2009)^[4]

1. Norway – USD 5.79
2. Switzerland – USD 5.60
3. Denmark – USD 5.07
4. Sweden – USD 4.58
5. Eurozone – USD 4.38

Five most affordable

1. Malaysia – USD 1.70
2. Hong Kong – USD 1.71
3. China, People’s Republic of – USD 1.83
4. Thailand – USD 1.86
5. Sri Lanka – USD 1.95

 We have one of the cheapest Big Mac, meaning that our purchasing power parity is strong. But before we start to rejoice, we need to look at another index first.

This is the alternative index, or how much time a person needs to work in order to buy a BIg Mac locally.In fact, this will give a better picture than the Big Mac index.

I will post the graph from The Economist on this: (you can also go to the Economist here)

(click to enlarge)

Malaysia is not on the graph, but I can tell you Malaysian in Kuala Lumpur needs to spend 33 minutes to buy a Big Mac locally.

Look at Shanghai. A few years ago, it took a Shanghai worker more time than a Malaysian to work to buy a big Mac there, now SHanghai has not only overtaken Kuala Lumpur, but Singapore as well.

If a worker needs less working time than a Malaysian to buy a big Mac, it means that he is much better paid, and if he works the same time as a Malaysian, he can wither buy more things than that Malaysian, or if he and the Malaysians buy the same things, he would have more savings and richer than the Malaysian.

This means that even though our Big Mac is among the cheapest, our people’s wages are  low that we have to work so much more time to buy a big Mac.. That says a lot about our standard of living as well as our standard of well being..

Newzealanders, Australians and Canadians , even thou their big Mac is so much more expensive ths in term of our curency, needs to work 14 minutes to get a BIg Mac. Meaning that they are almost 3 times better paid than us..

Let us call the time needed to work to buy one Big Mac as 1Mac, since nowadyas, everyting has a prefix 1. When can we achieve the status as the Australian to buy that 1Mac?  

 1Mac  in  1Malaysia

There is a virus going around and this virus is unique to Malaysia.

No, I am not talking about H1N1 which is a global virus.

This virus only affects those who are members inside political parties (some powerful NGOs may be susceptible too), and it becomes more virulent after 308, and infects  especially those who are YBs.

I refer to a virus which I call ‘factionalising’ virus ( … according to my dictionary, factionalising means creating factions)…. The property of this virus is to cause a fever without raising the temperature of the person infected. The fever is ‘power-craze’ fever, meaning whoever gets this virus will be power crazy and will create factions inside the party for the sake of either pulling down whoever is up there or kicking out whoever is moving up and threatening position of the affected person up there.

The dominant party has been affected and has seen one president being pushed out and another one assuming the position of the president.

The second biggest component party  is the most seriously affected, resulting in everyone trying to stab everyone else and move up..No more friendship, comradeship and…’other-ships’.

PKR is not immune either and has seen one vice president taking leave because of differences between him and another vice president who is the president’s blue eye boy.

Now, even the religious party is not immune. The spiritual leader has openly called for an EGM to axe those leaders who are affected by this virus, and who are willing to go back to BN again since that way, positions and trappings would become theirs again. The old spiritual leader has seen the virus and hence has called for a meeting to axe those who are affected.

MIC has been affected, and one of those affected refused to give way and the virus  has completely weakened them so much so that another party (MSP) might replace them in the near future. Even NGOs like the one fighting for “Makkal Sathi’ has been infected with this virus and the movement H has been splintered to so many factions.

PPP has also been infected and 2 AGMs resulted from the infection.

Gerakan so far has not been infected, but since the next party election is 2 years away, anything can happen, especially there are already some undercurrents flowing beneath the calm surface, and these currents might get stronger if infected by this virus.

The virus has made the whole political scene so much uncertain. Just 2 or 3 months ago, PR was riding so high that it was almost certain that they would win the next generation election, and the only thing that can prevent them from doing it is for them to shoot themselves in the legs. These they have done, possibly because of this virus, and resulting in  all the infightings even before they win the GE.

SO far, there is no cure for this virus and once infected, the party would be divided and split and factionalised and each faction will fight against the other  , and often the fight would be even more vicious among the so-called comrades than figthing the opponents outside.

With this virus around, nothing is predictable anymore in this country. After all, this is the land where anything is possible… That is why the nickname “Bolehland”.

Budget 2010 was unveiled yesterday.

It is a so-so budget, but it is certainly better than Budget 2009 last year.

As usual, there is something to cheer for  and there is also plenty to sigh for .

The environmentalists would be cheering.. Tax exemption will be given for building owners to spend on renovations to acquire the Green BUilding Index (GBI) certificate.

As a person who care for environment, I view this as an important step, and a symbolic step for people to realise that the world has to go green in order for our posterity to survive.  (As to what is GBI, please go to this ACEM website. —  ONe such building is the the Mesiniage building outside Subang Jaya)

Then the EFP savings plan by self employed is also a good move, even the government contribution of a maximum of RM60 maybe too little.

The RM 500 tax relief a year for broadband is also a welcome move, but more can be done to improve the quality of broadband services in the country; Malaysia was rated to be 48 out of 66 countries in a recent survey. (Read my post ‘MSC nation in the bottom third’).

The 1% income tax reduction is pittance and will be easily be offset by the credit card charges . MOst of us who pay tax will be carrying cards, since in this modern world, cashless transaction is the norm, especially with the high crime rate, who wants to carry plenty of cash out? The government instead of taxing on each credit card, should only do so on the 2nd card onwards. Supplementary cards based on the first principal card should not be taxed either. 

If the government is serious in promoting prudent spending, it should make a ruling that only those with income above RM 3000 and above be entitled to a card, instead of , now, any Tom Dick and Harry can have one.. which have led to abuse of credit and many credit card debts and bankruptcy..

For those in the  middle class group like you and me, please beware that there will be a new motor insurance scheme starting middle of next year. ALthough We do not know much about this, be assured that car insurance premium is going to go up..

The 1 billion extra given to the Police is astronomical, but even so, I am willing to give them a  chance  if they can raise their productivity and  show results. Otherwise, it will be a big waste of money.

To be fair to the police, I will not comment now, and hope that they will utilise this extra 1 billion well to bring crime down and good order back to the people.  Hopefuy , they utiltise this to train and retrain the police force to make them more professionals and efficient and people orientated, and not just spend on fanciful hardware.. (pls read my post ” a gadget is only as good as thperson using it’)

One big question,even though the PM has slashed budget deficits from 7.4% this year to 5.6% next year, how is this budget deficits funded?

I have always maintained that to have budget deficits for so many years would not be healthy, and is like taking overdraft and building up debts and letting the future generations pay for them. The only way is to reduce our operating expenses, since it is so huge compared to the development budget.

Slashing operating expenses should be done by reducing the size of civil service and making civil servants more efficient and productive. There should also efforts aimed at reduction of wastages and abuses like what was reported in Auditor General’s report.

There is indeed a huge cut in the operating expenses this year, but  with the number of civil servants remaining more or less the same, the cut will probably come from cut in subsidy in food and fuel… SO expect a higher fuel and food price next year, and a higher fuel price will hit the middle class more than the rich. Apparently a new mechanism is being worked out…

Overall, nothing exciting, but one thing can be sure: the sycophants will be singing praises in the MSM these 2 days.

See my last year posts on budget 2009:(viewpoints still valid for this year ’s budget)

worrying trends in our spendings

Dr Dr Porntip Rojanasunan (Dr PR), the pathologist from Thailand , testified at the TBH case and opined that there was a 80% chance that his death was due to homicide.

I wanted to write on her opinion, which I thought was very professional, but since there is someone- drrafick- who has written better, I would just refer you all to his blog.

I will paraphrase a few paragraphs of his writings here:

8.  The most damaging evidence came from the findings of Dr PR on the signs of strangulation around the neck. A quick review of the pathologist report (Item No 5, pg 7 and Item under heading of injuries on page 3) showed that the Malaysian Pathologist acknowledge the presence of the wound but did not account for the reason of the wound. Certainly, Dr PR has a point as she demonstrated how the wound would have come about i.e. by manual strangulation.

9.  Another interesting interpretation by Dr PR is with regards to the anal wound. Again the Malaysian Pathologist noted the presence of a penetrating wound injury measuring 2cmx6cm (Item 7 and 8, page No4) (item 7, 8 page No8 ) but did not take into account the cause of this injury when making their conclusions. Dr PR claim such a longitudinal wound must have been due to a penetrating injury rather that the fractures around the hip. This is also logical

10. From Dr PR findings, it is obvious that the Malaysian doctors actually saw what Dr PR saw but did not take into account the seriousness of the two injuries at the neck and anus. Is there a possibility that they had intentionally omitted their conclusions on these two injuries? If there is such a possibility, then why did they do it? A senior pathologist like Dr Khairul surely could not have concluded that the injury especially in the neck is due to a fall from height.

11. Based on Dr PR explanation, I believe the Malaysian doctors need to revisit their findings again and analyze it. They need to find a solid argument to counter the findings of Dr PR. I would say they are in a better position to do so because they examined the body and Dr PR did not. Finding a solid yet acceptable argument may not be easy in light of things that have happened.

12. Based on my own analysis, I concur with Dr PR that TBH was unconscious when he exited the window. I concurred with her findings that TBH sustained some injuries that is due to a fall from height. I have no access to the body and post mortem pictures but Dr PR has seen TBH post mortem pictures. In that aspect, I gave her the vote that TBH was brutalized before being thrown out of the window. My position remains the same unless the Malaysian Pathologist can provide some simple, reasonable and logical explanation with regards to the injury of the neck and anus. In the meantime, the general feeling is that the people believe that that there is an interdepartmental collaboration to COVER UP rather than to solve the crime.

For the full article – a very well written and argued one- please go to this site.