Intriguing situation

With the GE coming soon, political scenerio is now very intriguing and fluid. Do not be surprised by anything now.

Over to the side of BN, apart from the dominant party, which has still very strong support in rural areas,  many other component parties are in a shambles . Recently,  we read about the news of manyof their ‘second echelon’  members quitting the second biggest component party.  These people are not frogs; they did not quit to jump to another party. Rather, they are disillusioned with the leadership and the direction.

This feeling is in fact quite prevalent in some of the urban-based componet parties  and while the more outspoken ones will quit officially, there are many more quiet ones  becoming inactive, and just letting their membership lapse and fade away.

The question about this second biggest component party is no longer how many seats they can win, but rather will their DVD-scandalised president stand for election and if he wins by standing in a Malay majority seat, will he be appointed minister? There are rumours that he may not stand but will pull his weight to make sure his son stand in a safe seat. If that rumour is true and if BN wins, we may see a very young full  minister and by virtual of being a full minister, he can be expected to ride a helicopter to the top of this party,  with his father waiting at the top helipad, to welcome him to the dragon seat, so to speak.

In the dominant party, the question now is whether there will be a cabinet reshuffle; if so, be sure that the cowgate woman will be out of the cabinet, possibly as a trade off for some form of immunity. And if there is a cabinet reshuffle,  many people think that the GE may only be called at  the end of this year.  But do not be surprised that it can be anytime now, even with a reshuffle, if opportunity arises to the advantage of the incumbent.

Over to the other side, the question is whether AI will go to jail. If the answer is affirmative , then the next question is who will be the PM in the event PR wins the next GE.

That person will have to be acceptable not only to all the three PR component parties, but also to the voters, especially the urbanites who form  the strongest support base  for PR. In the reality of politics of Malaysia at this moment, that person has to be a Malay.

Only 2 persons can fit that bill– the wife of AI, and KU Li.  Which one will that be?  Will it  hinge on whether that person is willing to give way for AI to become PM later, if he wins in a higher court.

Can the situation in Thailand happen here, where a proxy contested, won and was made the  head of government? Well,   I will not discount any eventuality.

Anything can happen now, even the most unexpected!

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12 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. Phua Kai Lit
    Jan 06, 2012 @ 13:04:01

    Interim PM if Pakatan Rakyat wins the next GE while Anwar Ibrahim is
    in jail?

    Let’s see ….. list of possible candidates

    1. Tuan Guru Nik Aziz
    2. Wan Azizah
    2. Nurul Izzah (why not? young, progressive and dynamic). The Yingluck of Malaysia
    3. Lim Guan Eng (Gasp!! A Chinese !! why not, proven track record as Chief Minister of Pulau Pinang. Time for Malaysia to grow up.
    Our neighbours such as Thailand and Philippines have had PMs and
    Presidents of Chinese descent)

    Any other suggestions from blog readers ??

  2. Phua Kai Lit
    Jan 06, 2012 @ 13:05:52

    I forgot to add Fuziah Salleh.

    Bold, feisty, a principled fighter for the people of Kuantan !

  3. Li Li Fa
    Jan 06, 2012 @ 13:19:09

    When I was small, I used to ask my Dad when The Circus would be coming to town. Living in the outskirt of town, this used to be a entertainment for the rural folks. Even the townfolks enjoyed it.

    With the GE coming round the corner, I can’t help but to relate it to the enjoyment I had experienced when I was small.

    People jumping from party to party acrobatically. With the wave of the hand, people can disappear and reappear at the snap of figures in magical moments. Even cows can jump over the moon and make a lot of money for their owners. Huge elephantine parties performing balancing acts on racial balls. Wait for the right timing when they send in the clowns, and all will be entertained, amused, and soaked in hilarity.

    Anything can happen in a circus too. When it rains, less people can come to watch the greatest show on earth. When a member of the team doesn’t show up, the show has to be replaced or cancelled. A new act will be put up instantly. Fielding the right person and event on the show is being done professionally all for the sake of the customers, who by the way, pay for their tickets.

    New actors are eager to get on stage to show their stuff, but was hindered to do so. Clowns do fight among themselves and wish each other to disappear in the next act.

    But to know when the showtime will take place, is a mystery even to the incumbents. There again, we have been assured that it is round the corner.

    So, round the corner, here they come!

  4. Phua Kai Lit
    Jan 06, 2012 @ 13:55:26

    Dear Li Li Fa

    Regimes that have little legitimacy in the eyes of their own people (and which stay in power through intimidation and bribery) can collapse very quickly. Once the people overcome their fear or apathy or the regime goes broke and is unable to
    throw money around to bribe anymore, it can vanish in the blink of an eye.
    Then you will see how quickly Communists become capitalists and authoritarians become democrats! Or shall we say, MCA types become card-carrying DAP members and UMNO guys become sworn PKR members ;-)

    Classic examples — the quick collapse of the old East European police state regimes, including the Ceaucescu husband-and-wife regime of Romania.

  5. kehoe
    Jan 07, 2012 @ 07:22:19

    3. Lim Guan Eng (Gasp!! A Chinese !! why not, proven track record as Chief Minister of Pulau Pinang. Time for Malaysia to grow up.
    Our neighbours such as Thailand and Philippines have had PMs and
    Presidents of Chinese descent)

    the difference in Malaysia and our neighbors is religions,have u heard of a muslim majorities country with a non muslim PM or President?

    believe me,its never gonna happened… period!

  6. HuaYong
    Jan 07, 2012 @ 10:42:26

    达人兄,

    当今大马有报导您会参与“国事论坛”,先说一声谢谢,期望你能保持一贯中立,当然最好是能把还在睡觉的选民唤醒。

    顺便问问老翁,记得某年在一培训班,我曾听他说华人议员举手举脚也无补于事,所以应把选票集中,今天这一时机已来临,友族同胞也举手了,他妈的他老翁还呆在马华干啥?就算把老蔡打倒,也不见得我们就不把他当狗看待,他是读圣贤书读到脑残,还是为一己之私?在华人政坛,诗杰和子根还带有一种君子气息, 希望他们能把那些“伪”去掉,别让我们这些华人子弟为他们觉得汗颜。

  7. CYC
    Jan 07, 2012 @ 13:21:50

    Hua Yong,

    What the Chinese community needs now is a politician with LKY’s intelligence yet practical enough to chart a survival strategy first. Don’t bother about those who regard themselves as elites because they are not effective to bring changes. Elites are only good at preaching but fearful to step into real war zone. LKY though I may agree with some his high handedness like imprisoned his opponents for years long but he is effective in getting results. That matters a lot when u are in dire situation.

  8. Dr Hsu
    Jan 07, 2012 @ 16:50:47

    huayong,

    yes, i am one of the speakers for the forum on ” how people can be boss”‘ . i have covered this topics many times inn this blog, n for that to happen, we must have a 2 party system.

  9. klm
    Jan 09, 2012 @ 11:44:37

    Anwar is free. This must be a frightening thought for Jibby. The court freeing Anwar is an unthinkable thought for UMNO. By charging him and having a circus in court was a mistake in the first case. Now that the unthinkable has happened, will this finish him and his party.

  10. Phua Kai Lit
    Jan 09, 2012 @ 12:33:14

    Dr M will be having more sleepless nights since
    Anwar is still free.

  11. kittykat46
    Jan 09, 2012 @ 13:40:06

    A 2 party system can only truly emerge in a country which has had at least one peaceful, democratic change of government.
    I think this morning we have a little bit more hope that such a change can take place.

  12. BeWildered
    Jan 09, 2012 @ 13:49:11

    Anwar’s enemies still win even ANWAR is acquitted.
    What acquitted ? The whole case has been a circus show from the beginning.
    The strategy is to drag ANWAR along at 40 MPH, on the ground so that he can’t even take a breadth to build his political future. Now, the circus show has run its course. The next one will start soon. Expect anything. Poison needle, even bombs are used. Appears that escalation is in the making.
    Just watch, just about when ANWAR is catching his breadth, he will be dragged down again until he gives up or he is given up.
    Look at the blue eye party, which is the weakest link in the Pakatan. Now, we see the point that his enemies still has the high ground.
    By the way, those who has no conciense does not blink the eyes when they go for the kill and they sleep well every night becuase there is nothing darker than themselves. We mortal can never appreciate the power of the dark side of the force.

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