An interesting opinion

2 days ago, had tea  with a foreign observer of Malaysian politics.

He has given a very interesting opinion.

He predicted that Bn would probably win, since for PR to win, they need an additional 30 seats. In 2008, BN won 140 and PR 82.  While they may have a net gain of a few seats in the next GE ( by winning some and losing a few of existing ones) in Peninsular Malaysia, they are expected to win no more than 10-12 seats in East Malaysia.

While this marginal win may give BN some breathing spaces ( another 4 years ), it would spell the end of the present PM, as any result worse than 308 would mean that the vulture warlords would be pouncing on him to push him out.

So, according to this foreigner, PM has actually hastened his pace of reform because of his weak position. Seeing it in this light, this person thinks that Anwar verdict will actually do some good to the PM.

According to him, PM has nothing to lose now, and that is why he is now defying the right wing of the party in pushing for abolition of ISA, peaceful assembly and certain electoral reform. He expects the pace of reform to hasten in the remaining month to the next polls.

He also opined that PM knows his days are numbered if he does not win back some of the urban votes. That is why he is all out to try to win some of this bloc of votes, since rural votes are now more or less certain.

That is why we now have Ah Jib Gor in facebook in Mandarin. Dont be surprised that he will learn how to write a few chinese words and display his calligraphic skill in the coming Chinese New Year.

He may of course play to the sentiments that many of the Chinese voters do not like the present No 2, so there may be a quiet campaign with his tacit blessing to tell the Chinese that if they do not vote BN, expect No 2 to take over in case BN wins but with a result worse than last time. This may actually motivate some of the lpeople in urban areas to vote for him.

I find this interesting and I want to share it with all of you. Looking forward to hear the opinion of my learned readers on this.

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20 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. YYW
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 12:40:04

    I hope this is true. In fact, I hope he could just toughen up and go all the way. He’s the PM anyway. Fire all those corrupted BN goons not aligned to reform (jail them, if possible), kick Muhi out, tell Old Horse to shut-it-and-shove-it.

    Oh, and lock Rosmah at home.

  2. Richard Loh
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 12:53:00

    In my view, win is certain for umno/bn, just the seat numbers unless a few unexpected things happen within umno or scandal like NFC. As I tweeted before, Najib is using the CNY and Thaipusam as his last opportunities to get votes from the non malays before GE13. After these events he will go all out to tackle the last frontier, Sabah & Sarawak.

    Yes he may gain some additional votes from the Chinese & Indians but he may lose some malay votes as well. It all depend now on how PR is going against the Najib force. On the ground his forces are working very hard to disseminate both truth and lies among the electorates, very obvious in semi rural area in Penang.

  3. Phua Kai Lit
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 13:48:01

    Best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour.
    Our PM is a survivour/survivalist politician.

    Remember how he sat on the fence until the last moment
    in the Mahathir-Razaleigh fight of yesteryear?

    Anything is possible with our 1PM !

    But again, a week is a long time in politics. And everyone – including the
    well-informed – was stunned by the results of the last GE.

    So the outcome of the next GE might be much closer than we think.

  4. Kenny
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 14:55:42

    Unfortunately ‘Ah Jib Gor’ is too weak to push through any real reforms. Just look at his pathetic Peaceful Assembly Bill – it invites more brickbats than the old Police Act. When the ISA replacement comes out it may be worse than the old one. Has he acted firmly over the NFC scandal? This PM is not a reformist, he is a pleaser. Even a decrepit outfit like Perkasa can hold him to ransom.

    I agree with the foreign observer that the election is still BN’s to lose due to the highly unlevel playing field and the rampant cheating. But getting 2/3 majority is no longer possible. Najib’s position after the G.E. is shaky so there is a theory that he may delay it to March 2013 to stretch out his term as long as possible.

    However we should not give up hope as the situation is still fluid and anything can happen. It could surprise us as much the 2008 tsunami. There was no political analyst who predicted that BN will lose its 2/3 majority in 2008. The malaysiakini editor-in-chief wrote a piece entitled “Don’t expect BN to lose big”.

    If PR cannot win they can still inflict heavy damage on BN. MCA, MIC and Gerakan will be largely wiped out. A govt made up of Umno and East Malaysian parties will not be a peaceful one as the small parties find their courage and start to crawl out from Umno’s shadow.

  5. CYC
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 15:43:04

    Jibby is not a deceiver. Those who were impressed with his deceiving show are just plain blind or naive. How could a thief accuse others of his own kind. Massive piratisation of the nation’s wealth is underway begins with Felda, Proton ….follow by KTMB …….so on. They want a good bye present that may bankrupt the country. If PR wins, there will be a stand off between the new govt and the piratised GLCs.

  6. Piqued
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 17:03:31

    Wishful thinking on your friends part.

    The sitting UMNO PM (regardless of who he may be) is surrounded by sycophants who praise him to no end, venerate his ideas (even if they are not his), denigrate his rivals and cocoon him in an atmosphere where he has no fears or peers.

    It was why the previous PM never thought he would lose his 2/3 majority or had an inkling that UMNO would swiftly and surely cast him aside and move on just as it did to Tun M the moment he resigned.

    The PM is surrounded by those who assure him that he will get back the 2/3 majority, Selangor and retain Perak.

    All he has to do is to give them some time, and lots and lots and lots of money so that they can assure him of a resounding victory.

    Just do what they say (regardless of how contradictory it may be), relax and another 5 more years is in the bag.

  7. CYC
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 17:47:55

    Sorry, Jibby is a deceiver…

  8. disgusted
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 21:32:02

    I hate to say this, but intuitively, I think BN still has the edge. I could deceive or deny my own feelings, but I won’t. I hope I am erroneously wrong but something rationalised that BN has the winning edge. I hope something drastic will change for Pakatan, for the better.

    Dr, Happy New Year and best wishes for 2012. Keep well and healthy.

  9. Wave33
    Jan 19, 2012 @ 22:52:13

    UMNO will still win the next GE. It is due to hard core poor and rural areas. Money could buy votes. The recent event of giving away RM500 for poor household is a testament on the power of money.

    Money will continue to conquer the mind and soul of the poorly educated. UMNO wants them to continue to be poor in wealth and education, so they can continue to be in power.

    The best way to counter this is for Pakatan to take in more states in Peninsular Malaysia. If Pakatan is able to take control of 5 more states, eg. Perak, Negeri Sembilan, Melaka and Trengganu. Pakatan would be heading to Putrajaya, as Sabah and Sarawak would jump ship to join Pakatan. At 308, the win of PR is not convincing enough to influence Sabah and Sarawak to jump ship. If you are a betting guy, you want to bet to win. Low risk, high gain. Winning 5 more additional states will lower the risk.

    Focusing on Sabah and Sarawak seats are a waste of time. There are too many that is poor in wealth and education. PR do not have enough money to do it.

    Focus on Peninsular and wack UMNO out.

    ABU!

  10. anomie
    Jan 20, 2012 @ 09:31:02

    Whether BN/umno win the GE13 is inmaterial.

    ‘Ah Jib Gor’ will forever known as the reluctant Gorbachev of bolihland.

    Whatever the outcome of GE13, ‘Ah Jib Gor’ is history for sure. If BN wins, but with reduced Dewan Rakyat seats, he is a goner in the eyes of the umno warlords. If PR wins, he is still a goner.

    Nothing much he can do, except quicken the dispersing of his wealth overseas now.

    Whoever wins, Malaysia will be in tremors for some time to come.

    PR’s win would inspire the extreme right-wingers of the umno to create chaos in the name of ketuanan, for AlifBaTa (Ugama, Bangsa & Tanah), There r many died-hardens who subscribed to the ideology behind this jingo. Without this battle cry, they r REALLY NOBODY.

    BN’s Pyrrhic Win will see the demised of the BN concept. The wannabe Moos will have to play tough to placate his supporters. Thus a series of forced-down-your-throat policies changes. More discontents & protests from the Rakyat, which turns more violence, resulting in a short duration govt. A version of the delayed Arab spring.

    So, the dawn of new Malaysia politics will only comes when it survives the darkest moment.

    Be prepare & don’t deviate. Its for the future of the 20+. The 30+ & above would just have to stomach this long waited pain of laboring.

    anomie.

  11. Phua Kai Lit
    Jan 20, 2012 @ 09:57:38

    “Optimism of the will, pessimism of the intellect”, as the Italian
    political thinker Antonio Gramsci so eloquently put it.

    You can’t win a political war by conceding defeat before the final battle
    has even been fought.

    Remember Lenin and the “To the Finland Station” determination of his band of Bolshevik (Communist) professional revolutionaries. They beat the much larger Mensheviks (social democrats) and seized power. Hitler and the Nazis also seized power with less than 50% support of the German people.

    Again, corrupt regimes with fast eroding legitimacy are more fragile than you think.
    Regimes that rely on intimidation and bribery can collapse very quickly.
    Intimidation does not work anymore once the people get rid of their fear and apathy. As for bribery, once there is no more money in the kitty, the only way is through the printing of money and hyperinflation.

  12. Li Li Fa
    Jan 20, 2012 @ 12:55:55

    Ah Jib Gor and his deputy Ah Moo Pak are actually witnessing the slow but sure wind of change blowing across the nation.

    Not continuing to complete the reformations and transformations prior to the 13GE will further heighten this change.

    Perhaps they are still wishing that each other’s days would be numbered by now.

    Just as their posters that stand erected at their parties HQ, standing guard to what is to come to pass. Purportedly, their posters have Chinese New Year greetings on them, but sad to say, they appear to be like Chinese tablets on ancestral altars or similar to those pictorial door guards in traditional Chinese homes.

    That is how they go all out to woo people into their fold.

  13. BeWildered
    Jan 20, 2012 @ 14:49:25

    Malaysian, open thy eyes and thy minds, the grant magic show has begun!

  14. Kenny
    Jan 20, 2012 @ 23:24:15

    The A-G has filed an appeal for Anwar’s acquittal. Big mistake. Whatever goodwill for Najib generated by the surprise acquittal has dissipated.

    This is a battle between the hardliners and moderates in Umno. The hardliners have won this round.

    The Court of Appeal is very likely to find Anwar guilty. They are very obedient judges. If the verdict is before the G.E. this may allow PR to march to Putrajaya.

    It will be more torment for Anwar’s family but it is a boon to PR. This appeal won’t do BN any good.

  15. A true Malaysian
    Jan 21, 2012 @ 09:09:48

    Ah Jib Gor is buying time, to make sure he can still be PM after 13 GE. Any results worse than tsunami 308, he will be out for good like Pak Lah.

    I expect he will be out for good after 13 GE and his Ah Jib Sou plays a part in this. Realistically, Umno / BN will still be the next government at Federal level, but more states, apart from the 5 states, will fall into Pakatan’s rule. We would see the kind of scenario where they will lose more state and parliament seats in Peninsular Malaysia, yet they can still be the Federal government due to gerrymandering by still winning in Sabah and Sarawak. It’ll be like they still administer the country in Peninsular but unwanted by the people there. It’ll be kind of weird position, and if they are not shame of this, I don’t know what is.

    We can’t expect Ah Jib Gor to go for real change as he and Ah Jib Sou are tainted, more so the warlords who are against him. All things that announced are all ‘wayang kulit’ to me.

    Their last straw is to pull back the Malay votes in Peninsular, by telling them only Umno Malays are Malays. All other Malays that want to work with the non-Malays are not Malay per se as Malays will lose their ‘supremacy’.

    We need Malays other than Umno to go all out for ABU, and I see they are in it. We see this in the youngsters like Adam. We read the comments in Ah Jib Gor FB. After all, it’s the Malays that initiated ABU and selling well amongst the non-Malays.

    13 GE will not be so soon, they need to re-arrange strategic assets into crony’s hands first, just in case the unexpected event becoming reality. The old horse has final say, not Ah Jib Gor.

  16. Dr Hsu
    Jan 21, 2012 @ 09:23:56

    The old horse has won the round. No.1 ‘s position is precaious, but the right wingers won’t push him out as yet, since to do that would bring more damage to the party. But i see his departure after the next election is imminent, unless he can position his own people as winning candidates and thus build up his power base.

    he has actually nothing to lose to push the old timers oout and put in his own people, the only thing to worry is of course leg pulling during the election and thus he may lose more seats than otherwise. Indeed, he is in a dilemma and difficult position.

  17. Li Li Fa
    Jan 21, 2012 @ 09:44:05

    The person behind the hardliners is none other than the Old Horse and Ah Moo Pak (uncle Moo) and the so-called moderates are presumably backing Ah Jib Gor, who is actually a hardliner that puts on a ‘moderate’ skin.

    Both the hardliners and the moderates do not want AI at Putrajaya. The 9th January acquittal was to make the moderates look good. Now the ball is passed onto the hardliners to take on the case and to thwart AI’s quest for the Putrajaya ‘throne’.

    Ah Jib Gor has vowed that the BN will defend their position ferociously. Remember the ‘crushed bodies’ thing? The Old Horse has even bigger plans why AI must not come to Putrajaya.

    All these infighting and tussling for power between them do not speak well for the main component of BN. Many are predicting the beginning of the end of this unchanging, jurassic- like party.

    If AI loses in the Court of Appeal, there could be a gargantuan uproar from his supporters and sympathetic groups from the country and abroad. The wind of change would blow stronger than ever. If AI wins, he will also have increasing support for the carrying out of a 2-party system, and by then the BN will have to quell their own thunderstorms.

    Will we be using An Wah Gor (Uncle Anwar in Chinese) , Kit Siang Gor (Uncle Kit Siang) or Ah Nik Gor (Uncle Nik Aziz) by then?

  18. Dr Hsu
    Jan 21, 2012 @ 10:35:54

    this Chinese New Year is one of the quietest ones, as far as I can see. there is no muh of buying, compared to previous years.

    The economy is going to be not so good, and some predicts a growth rate of only 2 .5%.

    I think the longer they hold out, the worse is for them.

  19. Kenny
    Jan 21, 2012 @ 10:43:55

    Who are BN’s support base now? The older generation rural Malays, the Dayaks in Sarawak and the naturalised Filipinos in Sabah. Notice they are people with limited access to information beyond the state controlled media. The foreigners in Sabah are of course pro-BN for being given citizenship.

    BN should be ashamed of itself for depending on semi-literate and poorly educated groups and instant citizenship foreigners to vote it back to power. Due to gerrymandering the voting power of the rural voters are a few times more than urban voters.

    The BN govt does not have the support of the urban middle class. This is why there is so much conflict between civil society and this govt which frequently insults their intelligence with simplistic explanations and stupid acts. The govt still thinks it is dealing with simple kampung folks. Their political culture is based on lies, deceit and racism.

    But time is not on the side of corrupt regimes which depend on illiteracy and lack of information to propagate its rule. The older generation thins out while the younger generation are able to break out of the trap of disinformation. The monopoly of information also gets less effective with penetration of the alternative media.

    Taiwan has achieved true democracy. It required the dominant KMT to lose power once. Similarly our 2 party system can only be established if BN loses power at least once. It will happen if not the 13th G.E. then in the not too distant future. The only way for BN to avoid being kicked out is to transition to an autocracy with fake elections.

  20. disgusted
    Jan 22, 2012 @ 00:40:54

    This New Year in terms of purchases is the second worse since the Asian currency crisis and before that in 1986. prices have rocketed to 30-50% with unscrupulous traders and businessmen pushing the prices at whims and fancies. The only consolation is the Mandarin oranges which comes in different quantity and quality sold in supermarkets. Even less selling at roadsides and the “Bak Qua” is worse with pork prices hitting the ceiling. Honestly, the enforcement is just a whitewash, lacking manpower and they couldn’t care less.

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