No sight of the end of the tunnel yet!

image imagehttps://www.facebook.com/BERSIH2.0OFFICIAL/photos

Updated:

Bersih 4.0 entered its second day today. I walked yesterday among the crowd, hot and tired, but the hope of a better governance has kept me going. ( refer to my post yesterday).

The turnout on the first day was nothing but mammoth. It was bigger than Bersih 3 which I have witnessed first hand too.

This time, I was happy and yet disappointed at the same time.

Happy to see so many youngsters, some of them so pretty and handsome and so well groomed that they would probably rather sit in an Aircond room than standing under the hot sun. Yet there are so many of them, braving the hot humid weather and the scorching sun to march for better governance. This youth would be the backbone of the nation soon, and it is good to see the political awakening in so many of them.

Disappointed that this was mainly an one ethnic show. While Bersih 1 and 2 have predominantly Malay participants, this one is mainly urban Chinese Malaysians, maybe as high as 85%.

What inference can we draw from this?

  1. The discontent and the perceived farce surrounding the billion ringgit  ‘donation’ issue and the rapid depreciation of our money are mainly felt by the urban people. Most Malays are not as much concerned about this as the Chinese Malaysians
  2. the Anwar factor is rapidly losing its relevance. Without PAS in PR, Malay support for PR is only marginal… GHB is too new and untested to draw Malay support for the opposition pact.
  3. without massive turnout of the Malays in this Bersih, those who hope to use a vote of no confidence to unseat the present PM can forget about it.  MPs in BN will not be pressured into joining the opposition camp to vote against PM, since they would not feel pressurized by the lack of Malay presence in this gathering.
  4. The component parties like MCA and Gerakan can forget about a come back in the next election. Unless  the big brother is magnanimous enough to give them some rural seats ( an impossible tasks knowing how Warlords in Big Brother operate), they can forget about doing better in the next election. If anything, urban people are more against these now. These parties’ relative silence on the donation issue shows their impotence in national politics. Their role is mainly fire fighting, but with urban populace better educated and informed now, even this fire fighting role would not get them much headway.
  5. Unless and until the opposition can galvanize more rural support, the next GE will see Big a Brother win again.

After 2008, I thought I saw a dim light at the end of the tunnel. Now I realize that the end of the tunnel was still very far away; the dim light was just an illusion, no thanks to the breakup of the opposition pact.

Time and again I have mentioned in my blog about the Taiping Rebellion of China during the Qing Dynasty. The rebel movement conquered many provinces initially and would have probably overthrown the Manchus long before Sun Yat Sun did, had it not degenerated into vicious infighting and power struggle among the top few leaders. The spoilts of war derived from the initial victories was too much for the bunch of rebel leaders, and the intoxication of power from the few provinces they conquered was too much for these leaders to handle. The Qing emperor, though inert and corrupted, was able to crush them and quell the rebellion.

History is a mirror. Those who fail to learn from history will meet the same fate as those before them.

One good thing about history. It too teaches us that a corrupt regime will not last forever. It is just a matter of time that change will come. Who would imagine Suharto and Gaddaffi fall from office? Yet, they did.

This article is also available in Malaymailonline.

I walk my talk!

My wife and I came back from US for Bersih 4.
I have always believed that Malaysia needs to change its system, not just the Head of Government. There must be a better system of check and balance, a fairer system of rural and urban seat distributions , a departure from race based politics and a fairer and more equitable society.

My children are all doctors living good lives in US and Australia. It is up to them to choose whether to come back or stay overseas. I can’t and won’t influence them.
But my wife and I are always Malaysian, we are born and bred here. We love this country.

Because of my love for my country, I walk today for the sake of the future generations of all other Malaysians. All those who do not have a choice like my children do.

By supporting Bersih, it doesn’t mean that I am pro opposition. It is two different issues. I feel that both the ruling as well as opposition has performed below par, and we may need a realignment of political forces, or a credible third force which I have advocated since my days in parti Gerakan.( for those who are new to my blog, I resigned from the party in 2011. I was a central committee member then).

The rally is still ongoing, will add my thoughts later.

Only time will tell

Many people are understandably upset. Many more are feeling despondent. Many are worried. Many are even depressed.  Of course there are some who are rejoicing, especially if you are the one getting promoted out of the blue.

I  have a sense of déjà vu. I have seen these happen before. Not once, but many times.

In October 1987, when operating Lalang was launched, and many newspapers were suspected, we all felt what we are feeling right now.

In 1988, when the then Lord President was sacked by a tribunal, the same feeling arose.

Then in 1998, during the height of the financial crisis, when our currency was sinking lower and lower, and the sudden sacking of Anwar as deputy prime minister hit like a bombshell, we again experienced this feeling of despondency and uncertainty.

Lest some of my readers may be too young at that time, let me inform you that all these occurred during Dr M’s administration. But Malaysians ‘mudah lupa’ ; after each episode, Dr M went from strength to strength, leading BN to win by more than two third of seats after each of these events.

i remember in the mid 90’s , especially around the year 1995, he was enjoying strong support of Malaysians, despite the fact that what he had done in the 80s has irreparably weakened various institution of our country. The mechanism of check and balance, so tediously laid down by our earlier leaders , was tossed to the wind. He was hailed as a great leader, and in private conversation I have with many of my businessmen friends, they told me variously that ‘ clear water has no fish’,’ the end results justify the means’ etc etc. By then the people not only forgot the harm he has done in the 80s, but they adored him as a great dictator who was able to provide stability and put money in everyone’s pockets by means of charting a steady growth rate.

Malaysians mudah lupa, yes!

Now we Malaysians are facing yet another sandiwara similarly to earlier ones. The student has learned well and using the same strong hand tactic, he is doing exactly a ‘Dr M’. He must be secretly hoping that since we Malaysians have this ‘ mudah lupa’ traits, if he can buy time, and give stability and good growth rate to the country, people will forget and forgive.  After all, most of the people are like the Joe-6-pack of America, as long as there is enough to spend for himself and his family,  other things are secondary.

One thing in his favor is the power of incumbency. As no.1, with all mechanism of check and balance weakened, and his enormous power to dispense both positions and favors, people with aspiration to climb ladders will succumb to enticement and give him full support. So will those with skeletons in the closet- there must be tons of them.

So he must be hoping that after a couple of years, people will forget.

The main difference between the situation now and the earlier crisis is that the people are much better informed nowadays, with Internet and online media taking over the role of watch dog. Furthermore, the people  are badly affected by bread and butter issues, no thanks to the inflation brought about by the untimely imposition of GST, exacerbated by  the plunging commodities’ prices and the sinking value of the ringgit.

Will Malaysians still mudah lupa?

Only time will tell.

 

this article is published in Malaymailonline.

 

 

Empire strikes back

Gain Patail replaced as attorney general shocker. This is the headline of a Malaysiakini article just published.

He is apparently being replaced  due to health reasons, even though he was quoted to say that he was not aware of it.( malaymailonline posted an article ‘ Gani says in the dark over sudden termination’ ).

I don’t know what he means by ‘ in the dark’. In the dark of being replaced or in the dark of his’ poor health’?  Anyway this is not important as either way, he is out. In politics, poor health means ‘Chap Bao Fok’ , a Cantonese phrase for packing off.

Yesterday, I mentioned whether we will have a new no 1 depends on the four Tan Sris. Now one of them is out because he is ‘sick’. Do the rest want to be ‘ sick’ too? If they don’t want to be ‘sick’, follow lah certain ‘lifestyle’.

There is a Chinese phrase of killing a chick to warn the monkeys. The chicken is ‘sick’, so if the monkeys want to be healthy, we all know what lifestyle they should adopt!

Apparently No. 2 is also being replaced. No. 1 has suddenly turned tough, no more Mr. Nice Guy. This is as I predicted in my article yesterday where I mentioned that a wounded tiger is most dangerous when cornered, and he would muster his remaining strength to fight back.

This would probably lead to some being chopped from cabinet or even party, and maybe a splinter group will come out. Do not underestimate the effect of chopping no. 2 from office and making AG sick retire due to ‘sickness’ . This will silence all dissenting voices and make members/officials both in the party and the government toe the line. Whether No. 2 can fight back will largely depend on how much grassroots support he can muster and how strong is Old Horse’s hidden hand of cards.

It will be interesting to watch whether this will lead to a realignment of  political forces, with PAS teaming up with Big brother, and splinter group heading to Pakatan.

Even as early as in 2008, when I was still in Gerakan, I have predicted that Malaysia will see a realignment of forces after the 2013 GE. Maybe I may be right after all.

 

 

 

Crossing the Rubicon

No. 2, and PM in waiting, has crossed the Rubicon  and at the same time thrown down the gauntlet.

In opening a division meeting, he was quoted to say:

“1. If not The Edge, then which source can be trusted for 1MDB reports?

2. I told Ah Jib Kor to quit 1MDB but he didn’t listen,

3. Ah Jib Kor must answer WSJ’s allegations on fund transfers.”

Malaysian politics is like wayang kulit. You don’t go on a frontal attack unless you have marshaled sufficient forces. If you don’t have enough bullets, it would be better to lie low and sit on the fence. You only start to attack when you are 99% sure of your chances. DrSubra did a good job in the other party , and now is the undeniable No. 1 in that party.

We all know that the old horse is now behind no. 2, as they share a common interest to see Ah Jib go.

The interesting thing to note now is what will the 4 Tan Sris in the special task force do? Look at the flag and see which side the wind is blowing is probably a good survival skill, and if they go with the wind, then we will probably have a new No. 1 in no time!

The writing is on the wall, and the wind is getting stronger and stronger. Karma will probably cause ‘What goes round comes around!

………………………………

On the other hand, do not underestimate the wounded tiger! A tiger is at its most dangerous when wounded and cornered. If he can muster his remaining strength and counter attack, expect another ‘ operasi rumput’.

When two elephants tigers fight, the people in between will suffer. You probably realize by now your net worth has gone down so much in a short period, no thanks to the negative perception that is partly responsible for the slide in our ringgit! We as the rakyat can only wish to have this end quickly so that the country can move on again from this impasse. Sigh!

jumping the gun

I deplore the suspension of the Edge papers by the Home Ministry.

According to Malaysian insider, a letter from the ministry stated that the publications’ coverage of 1MDB was “prejudicial or likely to be prejudicial to public order, security or likely to alarm public opinion or is likely to be prejudicial to public and national interest”.

if the Edge papers have committed acts that are against the law, those in charge of the papers should be hauled up and charged according to our law, in open court.

If there is no concrete evidence to charge them, then how can the authority says their coverage was prejudicial to public order?

Especially when the investigation into the scandal has not been completed?

Isn’t this act a case of jumping the gun? Or is this meant to silence the critics?

GST and consumer power

Updated.

Almost one month has passed since the implementation of GST, has the cost of living gone up?

GST was successfully implemented in many countries and is perceived to be a useful tax to raise revenue for the government.  Protagonists will label it as a fair tax; you pay when you spend; the more you consume, the more you pay.  But if you are one of those living and working in the cities in Malaysia and earning a salary slightly higher than the minimal wage, you probably will be the one worst hit by this so called consumption tax and you will not welcome this.

Even though essential items are exempted from this tax, working persons will have no choice but to eat at least one meal outside. And if you eat a meal outside, you will definitely feel the effects of this tax on your pocket.

So far, I have come across three categories of businesses on how they deal with GST.

1. Many merchants have put out notices that they absorb GST. One prominent example is multinational company IKEA. There are notices in Ikea stating that prices remain as before. They must have a very comfortable profit margin to be able to absorb six percent of taxation. Anyway, as consumers, most of us would be happy to patronize these.

2. Many are charging more than six percent even though  on their receipt, it is programmed to read 6 percent. One example is those curry puff chain stores.  One of them  was selling curry puff for RM 2 per piece just before CNY.  After CNY, it was raised to RM 2.20, reasons being that the impending implementation of GST has raised cost and thus a 10 percent adjustment in price.  But then, come April first, the curry puff price went up to 2.40 , an increase of another 20 cents. Six percent GST on 2.20 would be 13 cents, so why increase it by another 20 cents? Why can’t they just sell it at 2.35 or even 2.30 , since they have already increase their puff by ten percent just a couple of months earlier? On the receipt, of course, GST reads exactly six percent of a puff which are now priced higher at 2.26.

A fried YaoCharKway (fried chinese doughnut or flour sticks) in uptown used to charge 40 sen per stick (the small variety type, not the normal long one available elsewhere). Now he is charging 50 sen per stick, an hefty increase of 25%. The reason is that as a small business, he can’t charge GST but have to buy raw materials which may be subjected to GST. So he has to pass on the increase. An increase of 25% no less, even though GST is only 6%.  It doesn’t matter that not all his raw materials are subjected to GST; flour and sugar are certainly GST exempted.

One of my favorite cafe at uptown Damansara raised its white coffee from RM 3 to RM 3.30 a cup, an increase of 10  percent, starting this month.  On top of that, GST is charged on the 3.30. Which means an increase of more than 16 %  on that cup of coffee. The reason given is again increase of cost of living due to the new tax. By their logic, the six percent GST  is causing the cost of living to go up 10 percent? These merchants must be either out of their minds or they are such good predictors of future that they could predict that there is a rise of cost of living of 10% due to the six percent of GST.  More likely, they are shrewd businessmen trying to make more profits using GST as a pretext.

3. This category did not use GST as an excuse to raise their prices, yet! They charge GST as GST should be charged– prices of goods purchased plus 6 %.  They did not have to absorb any cost, but they also did not go all out to profit from the pretext of an increase in cost of living due to GST implementation. Examples are plenty: many restaurants, most hypermarkets and supermarkets.

There are many other examples of category 2 merchants. Precisely because of these unscrupulous merchants , cost of living may go up higher than what it should be purely on GST taxation per se. Precisely because of there are so many category 2 businesses,  that we should have perhaps postponed the implementation of GST until people’s mentality changes to that of first world countries, or until such time when enforcement improves and profiteering can be cut down to a minimum.

In the meantime, what can we consumers do? individual Consumers are powerless, but together we can teach these cat2 merchants a lesson. If they raise their prices in addition to charging GST, like the examples I quoted above,  we should  all stop patronizing them. If we can do that, we will be sending a strong signal to these people that profiteering will not be tolerated.

Afterall, what are they without the consumers?

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P.S. There are of course the  rare ones that have lowered their prices. These outlets are so rare that I won’t even categorise them. One of them is this :

image

 

Please note that although this outlet has reduced its prices, they are still not cheap and would still be out of reach for the ordinary wage earners. Anyway, this act of reducing price is commendable and hopefully more outlets should take after this.

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