What will happen ?

What will happen to the country? Everyone is now talking about Dr Mahathir and his latest move, quitting rom UMNO.

Dr Mahathir’s latest move will of course distract the attention from the Royal Commission report on Lingam. That maybe the triggering factor  but I do not think that that is the main reason for his latest move.

Many people are saying that by quitting, Dr M hopes that some UMNO MPs may follow and that would cause instability in BN government , with so much talks about Sabah MPs quittng and forming a new paty to join Pakatan. If a group of UMNO MPs quit, then it would be the catalyst for Sabahan MPs to leave BN and join Pakatan, and the beneficiary will be ironically be Dr M’s nemesis, Anwar.

BUt personally I do not think that any MPs from UMNO will follow Mahathir, not even his own son Mukhriz. Some of the veterans (meaning those toothless former UMNO leaders) may quit, like Sanusi.

 SO why do Mahathir still do this?

I think that he is hoping that many grassroots who are not happy about the present leadership in UMNO will quit. And if this group is sizeable enough, it may put pressure on Pak Lah to step down earlier than he has planned. Because if grassroots leave in droves, the party will be weakened, and no powerbrokers would like to see an UMNO with a weakened base. They will be forced to persuade Pak Lah to bring forward his succession plan. There might even be an EGM for UMNO delegates, if enough grassroot members leave.

But UMNO grassroot members are known to be fiercely loyal. In the past, after Onn Jaffar resigned from UMNO, UMNO did not sink. Instead Onn Jaffar became a spent force and irrelevant in Malayan politics .

I think this time the same thing will happen. SOme grassroots may leave but not enough to cause a big earthquake. Pak Lah will be weakened further but he will still hold on to power.

The danger is of course Dr Mahathir will try to fan racial sentiments again, like after 1969. He is a good orator and writer, and I am afraid his words may stir up racial sentiments again, which is bad for the country. If he does that, UMNO will be forced to become more radical, and that would put MCA. MIC, Gerakan in a spot. If things come to that, either these parties will quit BN, or if they choose to remain, many MPs from these parties may jump ship and cross over to Pakatan. That would again cause the collapse of Pak Lah’s govenrment , and a new fresh election might be called; an election, I am afraid will be fought very viciously and racial card may be used again.

Will things come to that? Let us just keep our fingers crossed.

 

 

8 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. novice101
    May 20, 2008 @ 20:20:47

    mahathir is trying to fan the issue so that he can get all the publicity. We, who are not in UMNO should not help him to fan the flame. From now on we should be more restrain in our response and reaction to what he says and does.

    Don’t help him, don’t fall into his trap. Just stand aside and watch!

    Like

  2. Jason Ang
    May 20, 2008 @ 21:54:48

    Dr M resignation will further weaken the Malaysia political stability, from the economic point of view, as a normal citizen we are worry about the current global problem like commodity price is raising , obviously the Oil is the main issue. USA have a sign of economic downturn already, this will be impact to Malaysia sooner or later. The former Deputy PM of Singapore Dr Tan had warned Singaporean to be get ready for the next economic turmoil.

    Lets look into above matter added the instability of Malaysia political issue, would Malaysia will hit by both issue ? This is the worry, if both Economical and political issue hit our beloved Malaysia, are we strong enough like 1997 to solve the above both problem.

    Today i just got some Singapore dollar from Singapore to exchange to Malaysia Ringgit, surprisingly SGD1 is equal to RM2.363. This should be the highest in this year.are this the sign of economy turmoil is coming?…………….

    Further to this , the global natural disaster in Myanmar and china also further worsen the world economy. as a IT and Businessman , i have a feeling that the economy nightmare is coming…………… be ready………

    Like

  3. veonszu
    May 21, 2008 @ 02:44:35

    What will happen next will very much depend on the next move of the three main protagonists in Malaysian Politics.

    24-hour after Dr. M decided to quit UMNO and sent UMNO, in particular and Malaysia, in general in “panicky” state, where have the three Main Protagonists in Malaysian Political Play been?

    We learnt that our PM Abdullah Badawi was busy meeting UMNO’s MP to hold them from heeding the call of Dr. M to quit the party. No news about Dr. M. But most probably he has resigned himself into his private shelf quietly observing and assessing the situation. Then, how about Anwar?

    (http://veonszu.wordpress.com)

    Like

  4. steven
    May 21, 2008 @ 08:03:26

    oppp…umnoputra playing” wayang kulit’, seem like Ligam tape investigation and possible indictment trigger this show of force by this old sleaze fox, just grab a beer and ready for a “monkey show” unfold, fellow Malaysians!!!

    Like

  5. novice101
    May 21, 2008 @ 14:03:26

    Dr. Hsu,

    Why are you running scare, mahathir may have good communicative skill but please remember he is a gang of one. Have faith in all Malaysians who are against what he is propogating. Let us all stand up and be counted. Let us counter whatever he is doing that is detrimental to the nation. Let us all speak up and speak out. But let us do it civilly, let us not drag ourselves down to the gutter level. We have the interests of the people and the nation at heart, not self interests, therefore, have faith we will be triumphant

    Believe in the universal law of cause and effect!!!

    Like

  6. Dr Hsu
    May 21, 2008 @ 14:18:28

    Ya, you are right! AWSJ posted a editorial saying that it is good news for Malaysia to finally doing away with Mahathirism and all he represents, nepotism, cronyism, hijacking of NEP, destroying institution such as judiciary, police; practising money politics leading to the rot of UMNO.

    I just hope that ordinary people wont fall into his trap of fanning race to achieve his agenda.

    Like

  7. aadya
    May 21, 2008 @ 17:18:37

    I agree that maybe Mahathir’s decision *might* scare off some investors and what not, of people expecting a political and economic turmoil. But give it a few days, and if there arent any more Umno members following Dr. M’s call to leave Umno, then that’s it. It’s buried news already, and soon enough the issue will be forgotten. It’s about time, havent Mahathir heard the statement “To retire gracefully”?

    Like

  8. novice101
    May 21, 2008 @ 18:34:57

    Calling all Malaysians, go out and make a donation to help the cyclone-ravaged people of Myanmar and the earthquake-devastated people of Sichuan.

    The accumulated good accrued will rid Malaysia of all the evil perpetrated by the evil doers. The universal law of cause and effect in action

    Like

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