Don’t blame the speculators

This is an article taken from the Economist.

 

Don’t blame the speculators

Jul 3rd 2008
From The Economist print edition

Politicians who try to make oil cheaper by restraining speculation will just make things worse

 

ALTHOUGH the price of oil continues to hit new records, it has in one respect been a quiet week on the oil markets. America’s lawmakers are celebrating Independence Day by taking a few days off. That has led to a brief interruption in the torrent of proposals aimed at curbing speculation.

Ten different bills on the subject are in the works in Congress. Before the House of Representatives shut up shop, it approved one by a vote of 402-19. America’s politicians are not the only ones to have fingered speculators for the feverish rise in the price of oil and other raw materials. Italy’s finance minister believes that there is a “magnum of speculative champagne” included in the price of each barrel. Austria wants the European Union to impose a tax on speculation. Saudi Arabia and other big oil producers routinely blame the price on frothy markets, rather than idle wells.

The accusers point to the link between the volume of transactions on the futures markets and the price of oil. Since 2004 the near tripling of trading in oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world’s biggest market for the stuff, has neatly coincided with a tripling in the price.

What is more, investing in oil has become something of a fad. Commodities traders and hedge funds with long experience have been joined by less expert sorts, including pension funds and individuals. All this, the theory runs, is contributing to a bubble in commodities. The rush of punters betting on higher prices is begetting a self-fulfilling prophecy: it is the tide of new investment, rather than inadequate supply or irrepressible demand, that is pushing the price of oil ever higher.

Follow the oil, not the futures

This reasoning holds obvious appeal for those looking for a scapegoat. But there is little evidence to support it. For one thing, the surge in investment in oil futures is not that large relative to the global trade in oil. Barclays Capital, an investment bank, calculates that “index funds”, which have especially exercised the politicians because they always bet on rising prices, account for only 12% of the outstanding contracts on NYMEX and have a value equivalent to just 2% of the world’s yearly oil consumption.

More importantly, neither index funds nor other speculators ever buy any physical oil. Instead, they buy futures and options which they settle with a cash payment when they fall due. In essence, these are bets on which way the oil price will move. Since the real currency of such contracts is cash, rather than barrels of crude, there is no limit to the number of bets that can be made. And since no oil is ever held back from the market, these bets do not affect the price of oil any more than bets on a football match affect the result.

The market for nickel provides a good illustration of this. Speculative investment in the metal has been growing steadily over the past year, yet its price has fallen by half. By the same token, the prices of several commodities that are not traded on any exchanges, such as iron ore and rice, have been rising almost as fast as that of oil.

Speculators do play an important role in setting the price of oil and other raw materials. But they do so based on their expectations of future trends in supply and demand, not on whims. If they had somehow managed to push prices to unjustified heights, then demand would contract, leaving unsold pools of oil.

The futures market does sometimes signal that prices are likely to rise, which might prompt speculators to hoard oil in anticipation. But it is not signalling that at the moment, and there is no sign of hoarding. In the absence of rising stocks, it is hard to argue that the oil markets have lost their grip on reality.

Some claim that oil producers are in effect hoarding oil below the ground. But there is also little sign of that, either among companies or countries: all big exporters bar Saudi Arabia are pumping as fast as they can.

It takes two to contango

Despite their dismal reputation, the oil speculators provide a vital service. They help airlines and other big oil consumers to hedge against rising prices, and so to reduce risk—a massive boon amid the economic turmoil. By the same token, they provide oil producers with more predictable future revenues, and so allow them to expand more confidently and borrow more cheaply. That, in turn, should help to lower the price of oil in the long run. Any attempt to curtail speculation, by contrast, is likely to make life harder for firms and oil more expensive.

 

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57 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. jeff
    Jul 05, 2008 @ 22:34:06

    Judging from the world’s oil demand n supply curve, it is obvious why crude price is ever rising, see the pace of China n India industrialization and increase of global demand of automobile in this two market, arguement of future market is behind our present price hike is far-fetch and unrealistic.

    Like

  2. monsterball
    Jul 05, 2008 @ 23:31:20

    Looks like certain government with lots of power are making life difficult for billions of humans….just for control of oil..and hoarding it…for huge profits.
    They say Hitler was a real devil.
    I say…nowadays…10 times worst than Hitler ..killing millions..without declaring a war …are right here..right now.
    In our own little country of not more than 27 million population…..we can see a devil…dressed in style…talk so refine…keep playing filthy ….dirty politics…who is a doctor….kills more than he cures.
    Millions are dying like flies in Africa..where are the good powerful governments? They will keep giving the excuses…these people cannot be helped.
    It takes entertainers from the movies and music worlds…to make life better for them….in their own small ways.
    In this… US government have no shame..to be the biggest devil on earth…yet can be saintly…if they choose to. For that…rumors have it..US looks to Malaysia with loving kindness. Are we not lucky…to see a devil can change to be a saint…but our 83 years old devil…will never change….as the day he changes..his family will be in trouble.

    Like

  3. monsterball
    Jul 05, 2008 @ 23:33:26

    On a personal side..I want to tell Doc…noted his message at Justin’s blog.
    I am ready.
    Just name the date and time.

    Like

  4. steven
    Jul 05, 2008 @ 23:48:15

    How can government “subsidies” us with our nation resources ? only umnoputra can come out with snow is black rhetoric full of contradiction,
    blantant insult of all Malaysians’ intelligence.

    Like

  5. ThawStylerCool
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 00:07:30

    Tony Hawk’s American Wasteland!
    ,,,save- !
    :
    http://thawmods.3dn.ru

    Like

  6. jeffsher63
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 00:19:41

    The Dems (and certain Republicans) are trying to come up with schemes (i.e. going after the speculators) to get the spotlight off of them for their FAILED energy policies. In fact, many of them WANT higher prices, so that energy use decreases.

    What they don’t think of is that oil drives the US economy, and when the economy is in the doldrums, there are less taxes being taken in, which gives them less of our money to spend.

    Congress being off on recess is a GOOD thing; they can’t screw things up when they are not in session.

    Like

  7. jeff
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 02:33:24

    World oil price does not solely depend on USA usage only, hopefully congress intent of cutting down comsumption of oil within USA had some positive impacts on present “global warming” state.

    Like

  8. monsterball
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 05:06:16

    I have a strange feeling…the world really do not need to depend on oil for vehicles anymore. I don’t mean…what we keep seeing..those batteries operated short distance cars only.
    Some may not know…LCD tv was invented by Telefunken….in the early 70s…what we are seeing now. If released…Japan would go bankcrupt…thus yearly ‘compensations’ were paid to Telefunken….so said many US business friends of mine.
    I was there…seeing the TV displayed in a Summer Electronic Convention.
    I think….if all countries pool together and depend on water or battery operated vehicles…..produce them in mass production…having battery operated…recharging stations..conveniently for all users….petroleum companies will close shop’
    Right now…gas are used by taxis….and it is not popular..due to public not having seen such converter or service stations…compulsory to all gas stations.
    If that is done….with proper publicity work by the government….much more cars will run on gas..than petrol.
    What I am trying to say is…suspecting countries like USA…Germany….England…..naming a few…can make life difficult or easy for human beings….but due to wanting MONEY as one true God……anything goes!!
    This world is full of shit!!

    Like

  9. chauncey gardener
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 07:22:28

    Since the beginning of the year, 6 months ago, the benchmark oil price has gone up by 40% (from US$100 to $140 per barrrel).

    Has demand gone up by 40% ? Has supply gone down by 40% ?

    As far as I know, OPEC says it is still pumping out the oil at the same rate. And the world’s population has not grown 40% in the last 6 months, ie. demand does not seem to have grown by 40%.

    Are market players suddenly realising that we will run out of oil sooner than later ? Or is this a classic case of Big Oil cornering the market in a last hurrah before the next Big Thing in alternative fuel ? There are new sources to be exploited in North America such as in Alaska, North Dakota and the Canadian Shales. It is leglislation that is preventing these from being tapped.

    Based on fundamentals, the pricing of oil is surely out of whack.

    Like

  10. monsterball
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 09:09:18

    Doc..this is the best period..to stop talking Malaysian political affairs…and get to meet each other.
    Notice corruptions and mismanagements….no more important?
    It is….who is poking whose backside…really matters.
    Anwar have to deliver. So far ..after Lingam case ….everything SUCKS!!

    Like

  11. The Armchair Economist
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 09:35:25

    I agree with chauncey’s argument above.. the fundamentals of oil have NOT changed very much over the past 6 months. The only argument is speculation.

    While I’m a firm adherent to the free market economy, I don’t put it beyond wall street to profiteer at anyone’s expense to make a buck.. to that extent, while I think there is a place for speculation, the magnitude of it has gotten out of whack.

    Out of all of the proposals, I think increasing the margin requirement makes the most sense (and i admit, this will increase the overall cost of hedging) but its a quick way to reign it in.

    Like

  12. Justin Choo
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 09:36:57

    Now we are at it again. Expert technical analyses. The more twist and turn reasons for and against “speculations” and the more round-about and merry-go-round explanation leads me nowhere. What I know is that I am retired without pension, and prices keep going up, and I am getting older everyday!! This is the reality.

    Like

  13. Justin Choo
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 10:32:08

    Dr Hsu,

    Just managed to get into RPK Malaysiatoday thru info from a forum. His latest piece is news. Have you read it yet?
    http://malaysia-today.net/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=9555&Itemid=84

    Come to think of it, I think the Quran will solve it all if both parties dare to swear on it. We now have two chickens. They will quote the quran to clear their name. But swearing on it……………?

    Like

  14. monsterball
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 12:44:54

    This is the first time..I am challenging Anwar to deliver …and not keep promising this or that.
    We have it…up to our neck..and Najib seems so confident on Sunday papers.
    Anwar must proof Najib know Atlantuya… and is a liar…right now.
    My messages are under moderations in his blog.

    Like

  15. Justin Choo
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 15:12:53

    Monsterball,

    Saw your latest post #99. Bet you will never get any reply. Politicians’ best defence (PROVEN)…maintain elegant silence, the steam will disappear ….in due course!!

    Good luck, monsterball!!

    Like

  16. monsterball
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 16:48:23

    Justin…I know…he will never reply.
    My intention is to lead visitors read my comment..and think for themselves.
    In that way….I have contributed… without fear nor favour.

    Like

  17. Justin Choo
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 18:31:25

    Dr Hsu,

    Here it is!!! Kota Gelanggi aka Klang Kiu, the lost city in Johor. The kingdom of Lo-Yue.

    You must read thru. It’s quite long and strangely with attachments of emails by one Chua Ai Lin to Singaporeheritage@yahoogroup.com. Very suspicious why suddenly no news.

    Perhaps the clue may be in this statement made by the “founder” Raimy Che-Ross:“It’s not about who discovers a potential lost city. If proven right, it will radically change how we view the history
    of Malaysia and South-East Asia.”
    http://pachome2.pacific.net.sg/~schizoid/para/2005_star_johor_lost%20city.pdf

    Also wikipedia:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kota_Gelanggi

    On April 28th 2006, the Malaysian National News Service (Bernama) reported that the “Lost City does not exist”. Khalid Syed Ali, the Curator of Archaeology in the Department’s Research and Development Division, said a team of government appointed researchers carried out a study over a month in July last year [2005] but found no trace of the “Lost City”.

    However, Khalid later added that ‘the Heritage Department (Jabatan Warisan) does not categorically deny that it exists, only that research carried out until now [over the month of July] has not shown any proof that can verify the existence of the ancient city of Linggiu [sic]’ (Azahari Ibrahim, ‘Kota Purba Linggiu: Antara Realiti dan Ilusi’, Sejarah Malaysia, July-August 2006, p.37). When pressed for details, he revealed that Che-Ross was not involved in the museum’s search team for the lost city.

    Now I remember, having read the above statement that kept me curious over the sudden “shut down”!

    Like

  18. Dr Hsu
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 22:23:21

    monsterball, i am happy to meet up maybe with a few more like you, Justin (if he happens to be here) , a True Malaysian, etc.

    But next 2 weeks i will be very busy due to certain personal matters.

    As for Anwar, I agree with u that he has to prove and substantiate the statements he made. Show proof otherwise the whole country is in a confused and paralysed mode. Bad for economy and bad for investments

    Justin, thanks for the leads on the Johore Story.

    Like

  19. songsong
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 23:16:21

    Those demonic speculators should be blamed. The exchange can actually control those excessive speculation, but don’t want to. Just increase the paid up margin to 50% or 60% of the contract value for buyers of future contracts, and see the effect. Sure, market will be quietened.
    But, exchange made money on trading activities, more active, the better. Exchange don’t want a quiet market. Hence, we all suffer.

    Like

  20. monsterball
    Jul 06, 2008 @ 23:52:12

    Doc…12th July is my birthday!’
    I never celebrate my birthday ..except by myself…privately….mostly at the temple…..talking to my self and joking with monks.
    I am so fed up with so many birthday parties to celebrate..each year.. with 5 children..8 grands…..and few more …from close friends…that I told them…to do what they want..but never to celebrate my birthday. Let it pass on..as an ordinary day. i told my frends.to leave me out on parties too.
    So what I do for my children and grand birthdays..are basically…an “an
    pow” from Dad or grandfather….and if they put out a party…I go to their house..if I feel like it.
    You see..in my more than 30 years of businesses..so many parties..so many people..that I seldom have a chance to be alone by myself….be myself.
    So these 10 years or more..I am doing things..the way I like it….as children are all grown up..and are parents themselves.
    My youngest daughter of 16 years old…….Form 4….I told her to visit me during weekends….when she is really free. Previously..it was almost every weekend..for last 9 years and half of holidays time. She really love to come home on weekends….as she is treated like a princess..by my maids. Her mother used to complaint …that she put on few pounds…whenever in my house. Now so vain…eat less..and want to look slim!
    That’s the common passing age of a girl.
    But right now….I am advising her to think what she wants to be.. and read more…instead of the famous …house and hours on the computer ……talking to friends. She still do not know..what she wants to be…after schooling life….but that’s good….she is thinking..serious stuffs.
    So you see…Doc..the moment a man is a father…his responsibilities towards the child is non stop…till the day….he/she is married off.
    Few of my young workers..worked few years…got married and first thing I advise them..is not to live in a carpet room….or with a cat….when they have a a baby.
    I have seen few Muslims babies…suffering from asthma…and I think..the carpet and cat are the main reasons.
    Two have been directed by me to go to Subang Medical Centre..costing me…a fortune..to clean up the lungs….increased their salaries…make them pay back….in two years!
    So…how about meeting my on my birthday?

    Like

  21. jeff
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 02:06:48

    Some of the price hike are due to speculator playing around future market, not really because of the existence of future market , hope it is clear to those government that want to put blame on future exchange. Many of them are super rich individual and well funded institution like hedge fund or mutual fund.

    Like

  22. Dr Hsu
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 11:30:52

    Monsterball, I will meet you on 12th July your birthday.

    A True Malaysian, I hope to meet you, too. Can u make it on that day?

    To prevent unwanted people tailing us, I will email to you for the time and place to meet.

    Birthday is iimportant, I used to tell my children, because this is the day the mother suffered to give birth to the child (which is the one celebrating the birthday), and this is also the day the father would start his heavy responsibility of bringing up the child. So in celebrating birthdays, we must think of our parents… and that way, birthdays will be worth celebrating.

    Like

  23. monsterball
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 11:42:52

    Yes Doc…glad to meet ALL your commentators…and even silent readers ..that you may know.
    I only hope…it is a venue…near USJ2…but never mind…tell me the place in advance……and by hook or by crook…I will be there.
    I told you..I do not celebrate my birthday…..but use that as an excuse ….hopefully..to meet you……and yes…I never forget my Mom and Dad….and my grand parents too.
    Everyday…I pay respect to them…at my Buddhist praying alter.
    That’s the way of life for me.
    If none can make it….lets meet…okay?
    But the more….the merrier.

    Like

  24. Dr Hsu
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 13:55:46

    Okay. I am just calling the True Malaysian, Gary. Justin i believe is in Penang. But if he is around KL on the 12th , He is welcome to join. Romerz , too, if you are in KL on that weekend, we can also meet.

    For those commentators who would like to join us,please email me.

    Please let me know the meeting place . I am not too familiar with Subang, but I can find the place. I have send an email to the email address you used to you.

    Like

  25. monsterball
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 18:20:19

    At Subang Shopping Complex….next to Summit Hotel
    ….the Secret Recipe Coffee House…..smoking area. This means siting around… the corridor.
    You name the time…..and I will reserve an area…..if we know how many are coming. Otherwise…the usual table for 4-6 is where I will be seated and waiting.
    They serve nice snacks…excellent curry puffs…..cakes….and variety of hot or cold drinks.
    Yes…lets hope all can come….all… most welcome.

    Like

  26. Justin Choo
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 18:20:39

    Hope you all have a good time. I will send Monsterball his birthday cake on 12 July thru my blog…Promise!!

    Like

  27. monsterball
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 18:33:25

    Justin…Many thanks…..but nothing is better..if you can surprise me…..by seeing you face to face.
    If you have problem in getting a place to stay…just yell…….it will be solved.
    All you need is a nice bus ride….to and fro.

    Like

  28. monsterball
    Jul 07, 2008 @ 18:35:37

    Doc….kittykat49 ..kept saying…..wanting to meet me. Sometimes ….he drop in..to your blog.
    Hope he reads this message…and can..join us.

    Like

  29. romerz
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 00:09:34

    Dr Hsu,

    Would really love to join you guys but sorry no can do. Maybe another gathering when the time is more convenient.

    Also Happy Birthday in advance to monsterball.

    Like

  30. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 02:02:53

    Thank you romerz. If by chance…your scheduled is changed and you are available…please do come.
    Besides the regulars….I really love to meet all those monsters like me…frog….sumseng…and pohwatchdog.
    It then….will be a party for wonderland characters.all alive……..hahahahahahaha
    But if all are busy…..understand fully!!
    I and Doc.will report to you….what went on.

    Like

  31. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 02:49:55

    When I was young…and being a believer of “Way of Life” upbringing….I was crazy for all sorts of fortune tellers. In a way…I was very fortunate…to have met.. a Buddhist Nun….telling fortunes at a Raja Laut cheap apartment…….introduced by a female friend.
    I paid for the apartment rent….until the day….she died.
    We knew each other for more than 30 years. She was like a second mother to me….and one tiny ball of her bone is at my praying alter….along with my love ones…all gone.
    She said I have 5 children……when I have 4 at the age of above 45…it is impossible….because… I had a successful vasectomy….that is..parts removed..near the ball..preventing me from having children. I did that….at age 45.
    I went for reconstructions …by the famous plastic surgeon..Dr. Wong at Subang Medical Centre.
    He said…I was very lucky…as new miro surgery equipment ..costing millions…just arrived!
    I insisted China type…no sleep…awake while surgery was on. He said…OK…out came two huge huge needles! He poked one at my spine….nearly fainted. Tahan for the second one…..no more feelings..then few small needles.. poked here and there….my whole bottom was ‘dead”!!
    He was talking to me….while operating. It took almost three hours! I asked why so long. He said he was searching around my balls.. for another cord to join…digging here and there.
    I told him…can one joined…..works? He said …yes. Then I asked him to close shop.
    The chances was 50/50.
    Come sperm tests….Dr.Wong said …impossible!! I asked ..why?….He said not enough sperm count……but it is normal.
    He then gave me 1% chance….after arguing with him.
    I said…from his mouth…came the 1%…means got hope. That’s all I ask.
    Went to India privately with my ..then wife…prayed at all Buddha’s holy sites…and there is one thing..all should learn..regardless which religion..you have faith in.
    When your prayers are for love…with no selfish personal benefits…but proven benefit to others…..such prayers are usually heard by the ‘special one’..you believe in..and most of the time…answered and fulfilled.
    Few months later…my “wife” …tested .. pregnant!! Being her first…..at very young age…I insisted….she stayed at bed room…to be served by maids….until baby is 4 months. I rented lots ad lots of Chinese movies…and we both watched….movies… day and night….until…stomach was big enough.
    The only place she went..was visiting her Doctor…that will deliver the baby at Subang Med.
    Now that baby girl is 16 years old!
    You tell me….my daughter… not a miracle baby?

    Like

  32. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 02:56:14

    One giant monster sperm…from monsterball…fought successfully…killing millions of guard..preventing him….the monster sperm…to fertilize the egg!

    Like

  33. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 03:20:11

    Doc…Are you emailing me?
    Cannot work! I still have problem in getting my mails.
    You can contact me..through my office number..o3-56332004…9am..to 12 noon….I will be there.
    My fussy clerk….may ask you
    “what’s all about”.Just leave your contact number…and I will phone you back.
    Then I can leave you my private HP number….okay?

    Like

  34. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 06:28:47

    Doc..If you have a fax machine…mine is 03-56332401

    Like

  35. Dr Hsu
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 10:44:54

    monsterball, can i meet you at 8pm on 12th July at the place you have mentioned?

    So far, only you and me. Any of the regulars are welcome to come and join us…..

    Is there a Secret recipe in Summit shopping comple? I shall find it.

    Like

  36. Justin Choo
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 12:04:01

    Dr Hsu,
    Is this supposed to be a secret rendevous? Or are you trying to misled would-be gate crashers?

    Monsterball,
    Wah! You are slowly revealing all your secrets, including your phone and fax numbers!! I suppose this is just the tip of the huge iceberg! This is better than the Taiwanese tv serial I am hooked nitely at 12 mid nite “The Spirit of Love” (Yi Nang Wang). More! More! More! Monsterball!!

    Like

  37. Justin Choo
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 12:06:16

    Monsterball,

    Another thing; running thru the time of your postings, it looks like you never sleep!! You are really one big monster ball!!

    Like

  38. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 12:21:33

    Of all the days..fax is down..right now. Should be ok tomorrow.
    I do sleep a total of at least 6 hours per day…but at few intervals.
    When I feel tired….I need half hour total quiet rest.
    After that…I am ok…can work faster and sharper than most young ones…for few hours.
    What makes me sick…is when few bad news creped in .out if nothing,..like the fax machine and my copier is not giving clean copies.
    So I leave the office….ad let the clerks …go solve these simple problems.
    My office number and fax are no secrets.
    Indirectly..who am I is no secret at all.
    I am a nobody..but a man with principles in life…and that’s not an easy way to live.
    Thank God…so far so good.

    Like

  39. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 12:28:37

    Yes Doc…8pm is OK.
    I will be there..earlier..smoking a cigar with a cup of coffee..waiting for you.
    Don’t worry about others.
    They now got the place and time…all are welcome.
    I actually have few bloggers I want to invite and surprise you…but thought it is best…we leave it… ONLY to your blog visitors….if any wish yo come.
    Further more…we have never met…and nice to spend quality time with you ..Doc.
    You may bring your whole family …..but hope they can stand smoking for awhile.
    See you 12th…..8pm.

    Like

  40. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 12:33:54

    It is situated at ground floor..next to Starbuck.
    Just walk through main entrance..you will see Starbuck…then move your eye to the left..and walla….Secret Recipe!!
    If you park your car inside complex….take a lift to
    “G”…search for STARBUCK.

    Like

  41. Dr Hsu
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 13:35:29

    OK, monsterball, I will be there sharp. Wearing a “all black” cap since i am an ardent fan of All balcks rugby.

    C U and will leave it then to wish you happy birthday.

    Left of Starbuck, it should be San Francisco Coffee formerly , am I right?

    I know the place,no problem….

    Like

  42. Dr Hsu
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 14:06:28

    Monsterball, actually please invite the other bloggers as well, since this is a meetings of friends, the more the merrier.

    Anyone who is willing to agree to disagree can be invited. I leave it to you.

    It is good to meet other bloggers to get their views, since my knowledge and experince is quite shallow. I will be able to learn a lot from all these people.

    All of readers, you all are welcome to come.

    Like

  43. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 16:28:25

    My mistake! Look right from Starbuck.
    Yes…left from Starbuck was San Fransisco coffee house….now changed to another coffee house….one year ago.
    OK…I look out for all black…..Malaysia look-a-like…Johnny Cash.
    I love wearing all black too!
    Just received one one blogger…not free on 12th…will be at Sarawak on that day.
    Lets see…two more…but I guess these are very active political bloggers….may not have spare time.
    Lets see what happen.

    Like

  44. Justin Choo
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 18:09:08

    Monsterball,
    Dr Hsu means “All Black” NZ Rugby Team. Of course, colour is black with a silver fern.

    Like

  45. monsterball
    Jul 08, 2008 @ 19:19:43

    Actually…he is saying …wearing a black cap of a rugby club.
    Anyway..thanks for the info.
    I know..next to nothing about Rugby…except…one old timer…rugby player…Johnson Pang….simply love rugby himself.
    And I heard..that famous Rugby player.. Tajuddin have the biggest long “john”…in those days. You see….they are stark naked..changing at lockers room.
    I simply cannot be like that…too shy….and mine was long ..for my height and size…but as I grew fatter..”john” seems to shrink inside……hahahahahaha

    Like

  46. monsterball
    Jul 09, 2008 @ 02:09:45

    Got it wrong!
    Johnson Pang was a Public Bank man. Can joke and nice to be with. Live in Klang.
    The rugby payer…..is…also Pang..but forgot the full name. He worked in the govt. old labour office building.

    Like

  47. jeff
    Jul 10, 2008 @ 04:32:45

    Happy Birthday in advance to MONSTERBALL!!!! long live to 100 years old.

    Like

  48. monsterball
    Jul 10, 2008 @ 13:13:27

    Thanks Jeff!
    100 years you say?
    No…few more years enough….as I want to go without being a troublesome person to my love ones nor society…and…as long as I can stay healthy and well.
    Once system…no go….better go fast……hahahahahahaha

    Like

  49. songchin
    Jul 10, 2008 @ 13:16:26

    If dont blame speculators, then blame who? Just ask speculators to pay full amount (or 90%) of oil contract money once they go for a buy in future market will surely do the trick, but guess NYMEX will NEVER do that.

    Like

  50. monsterball
    Jul 10, 2008 @ 15:56:50

    I am not a stock speculator…but I think songchin is blaming oil prices are up and up..due to speculators from the public sector.
    On this..I think he is wrong….as I know many speculate…do not always make money…be it any stock or commodity.

    Like

  51. monsterball
    Jul 10, 2008 @ 16:05:48

    Songchin….It is the secret arms of certain government… with their selected person or persons…..armed with trillions of US $….to buy …buy and buy…making sure prices should go up and up.
    On this….Malaysia is helpless…because we are a corrupted country.
    I think USA is blaming China and India?
    Well…we have seen Mahathir blaming everybody……for something he did…..a dirty low down…….political art…he learned from US government.
    I hope I am right.

    Like

  52. Dr Hsu
    Jul 10, 2008 @ 16:26:02

    Monsterball, A True Malaysian will be with us that night, as he has kindly accepted my invitation.

    Like

  53. monsterball
    Jul 11, 2008 @ 00:28:07

    Yes I know and it is great news!
    I try to get Rocky..but no reply.
    Frankly….three of us ..may have so much to talk and exchange ideas. Time will fly.

    Like

  54. chauncey gardener
    Jul 11, 2008 @ 07:30:55

    This excerpt is from a message sent but the CEOs of the major US Airlines recently :-

    Twenty years ago, 21 percent of oil contracts were purchased by speculators who trade oil on paper with no intention of ever taking delivery. Today, oil speculators purchase 66 percent of all oil futures contracts, and that reflects just the transactions that are known. Speculators buy up large amounts of oil and then sell it to each other again and again. A barrel of oil may trade 20-plus times before it is delivered and used; the price goes up with each trade and consumers pick up the final tab. Some market experts estimate that current prices reflect as much as $30 to $60 per barrel in unnecessary speculative costs.

    Like

  55. Scott Thong
    Jul 11, 2008 @ 17:08:31

    I also heard via a BBC report that many of the speculators are retirement funds, insurance funds etc.

    Any profit they make is therefore on behalf of the citizenry themselves…

    Like

  56. songchin
    Jul 11, 2008 @ 17:25:47

    If US govt = one big speculator?? Speculators encouraged by those in authority, US govt or NYMEX officers etc, CNN (to spread bullish news, true or otherwise) etc, sure wil make price up, up, up!
    Some said US govt try to tax the world indirectly to pay for war expenses in Iraq & Afghan.. then blame China & India, U know lah , this US govt??

    Like

  57. jeff
    Jul 12, 2008 @ 13:39:46

    Oil price will go rising forever as long as the collusion between S.A royal family and Bush’s republican party continue, what is the best method to jack up speculative sentiment and future oil price? nothing other than waging “WAR” in oil producing country.

    Like

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