Short term gain and long term loss

Short term gain and long term loss.

This is precisely what is happening. With this takeover of the Perak government, BN will lose big in the next general election… Not only in Perak, but elsewhere, too. People will remember. Just like 308, people remembered  and in Peninsular Malasyia, BN actually lost the popular votes.

So, ironically, the opposition should not be feeling down. It should concentrate on governing the states under its admintstration and show people that they are capable of doing a good job.  Then, the next GE  will see them win big in Malaysia…

As Ong kian meng has said in Malaysiakini today, BN’s takeover is good for the opposition. He has made a very good analysis. For those who are not Malaysiakini subscribers, I will paraphrase some of his comments here, mainly his 5 reasons why this is so:

Firstly, it has made getting back the non-Malay vote for BN all but impossible, not just in Perak but in other parts of the country as well. It was obvious that the non-Malays in Perak voted overwhelming for the opposition in March 2008.

Secondly, this episode has tipped the balance of Malay support towards Pakatan. Fears that Anwar may be giving in too much to the non-Malays will undoubtedly be replaced by anger over the extent to which BN will sink to hold on to the reins of power.

Thirdly, this has given additional ammunition for Pakatan to undermine Najib’s administration right from the start

Fourthly, by forming the new Perak state government, Najib has inherited a new set of problems for himself and his incoming administration. He will have to deal with problems associated with the selection of excos, the lack of non-Malays in the state government, the political infighting that is heightened when state resources are at stake and the usual problems associated with running a state government.

Fifthly, by turning the tables on Anwar, Najib has effectively stopped him from speaking out further about enticing BN crossovers, at least for now. If Anwar is smart, he would use this time to concentrate instead on building up his own party (so that better candidates are selected the next time) and Pakatan’s internal cohesion as well as playing a more effective role as the leader of the opposition.

Earlier articles on this unholy takeover
Politics is about perception

Right of association belongs to the people

Go back to the people, Perak !

30 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. peng
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 17:05:41

    Dr.Hsu, you are a wise man. That’s what I gather from reading your posts. Gerakan don’t deserve a member like you. You can do more for the rakyat elsewhere.

    As a Perakian, I am sad not because the opposition lost the state. It is HOW the battle is won.

    I am insulted that the BN government thinks that I am so stupid to buy all the crap they propagated.

    You are right, the rakyat lose small now, will win big later.

    Like

  2. Sani
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 19:11:38

    Dr

    If this Perak Coup would have been done before the age of internet, BN would have just get away with it.

    This act Perak fiasco is like the saying, “Dead chicken yanking up the cover” (Say Gai Chang Fan Coil).

    Like

  3. Rhan
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 19:14:25

    I concur with this article and I think Najib is unwise to make such a move. Unless BN changed than the rakyat have nothing much to complain, could BN do it?

    My respect toward Anwar Ibrahim is a total reverse since the day he start his Katak tactics before 916. His action will only do harm to PR in the long term but savior does drop from sky once a while and to my surprise, the savior is Najib! I think all of them from the Wawasan team are brainless idiot.

    Like

  4. Meng
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 19:16:47

    We have to look deeper into as to why there is infighting in DAP, and factions of the cousins. Is it power or authority that they want to have as the sole authority to make decision?. As head of DAP in the state certainly one must show his colours but infighting leading to having factions has its weak and strong points.

    As head of a faction would one listen to the advise of the other faction…hard to say but what about those caught in between..they are neither here not there?

    Newly acquired power and if not careful one would be swollen headed and problems arises in the group that he leads and also from opposing factions.

    Perak DAP head is also seem by some to be arrogant though some may not agree but check with the ground roots of the other parties in Pakatan?

    The force take over is good for Pakatan but infighting, creation of factions, poor selection of candidates would destroy themselves.

    Political intelligence on the BN ground work in quiet periods (non election)would be an advantage.

    Like

  5. klm
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 21:09:43

    To put into context on how to handle the Perak situation. I like to use some quotation from Mao Tze Tung work

    “PROBLEMS OF STRATEGY IN CHINA’S REVOLUTIONARY WAR”

    I think PR can use some of his wisdom.

    1. Strategic Retreat

    A strategic retreat is a planned strategic step taken by an inferior force for the purpose of conserving its strength and biding its time to defeat the enemy, when it finds itself confronted with a superior force whose offensive it is unable to smash quickly. But military adventurists stubbornly oppose such a step and advocate “engaging the enemy outside the gates”.
    =========================

    All this demonstration and fighting with the police do not help. It may be nice to let go the frustration. It just give the other side the excuse to declare an emergency and put them in jail. Good publicity but get PR nothing.

    2. Strategic Offensive

    To defeat the offensive of an enemy who enjoys absolute superiority we rely on the situation created during the stage of our strategic retreat, a situation which is favourable to ourselves, unfavourable to the enemy and different from that at the beginning of his offensive.

    There is a hugh ground ground swell of anger directed at BN. Use the strategic retreat to built on this.

    3. Concentration of tropps

    The concentration of troops seems easy but is quite hard in practice. Everybody knows that the best way is to use a large force to defeat a small one, and yet many people fail to do so and on the contrary often divide their forces up. The reason is that such military leaders
    have no head for strategy and are confused by complicated circumstances; hence, they are at the mercy of these circumstances, lose their initiative and have recourse to passive response.

    PR need to build a large well organised force of candidates for the next election. Not the current rag tag army of ex-postmaster and ex-photographer. It need well oiled machinery to work the election. Together with the ground swell of support. Victory is at hand.

    I think you will find this good reading after Perak.

    Like

  6. Monk
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 22:46:41

    The coup d’etat carried out on the 11th day of the Chinese New Year abruptly ruined the celebration mood of the predominantly Chinese community in Perak is probably pure coincidence but the fact remains that a Chinese leader was the spoiler that brought a democratically elected state government down, aggravated the perception against UMNO_BN even worse.

    It only shows the “like-father-like-son” trait on the desperation to grab power and image come March elections.

    Like tigers never losing the stripes, even at the next GE, given a loss of mandate at the federal level, the power will not be easily handed over to Pakatan on a silver platter.

    All that does not begin well (Perak coup) will not end well. The Perak undemocratic grab is a sample taste and should indicate the ending part.

    As long as MCA and other BN component parasites continue to hang onto the sarong of UMNO, it will lend “legitimacy” to its bullying tactics. If only all components have the balls to leave now…but we all know the eunuchs are hanging on to the testicles of their political masters.

    The tortuous road to federal government Putrajaya will be figuratively a treacherous long and winding path, unlike smooth super highways.

    The success will be achieved provided the people’s power stay is consistent and persistent. Never mind the minority of sick frogs and traitors. Let divine laws take care of them.

    This year looks more like a “bull” year rather than an “Ox” with tyrannical power “bull-dozing” into the Perak state administration.

    I believe the bull will be slaughtered in the end provided the people should no longer believe the bull-shit of the BN anymore.

    monk
    .

    Like

  7. Young Voter
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 23:18:00

    Dear Dr Hsu,

    I fully agreed with you that BN will lose big in the next general election.

    Younger voters especially those age below 35 and the educated not longer support UMNO / BN.

    We should turn our ANGER into a POSITIVE FORCE. Each of us should set a personal goal of encourage 10 of their friends, colleague, relatives, neighbours, etc to register as the voters and ready to vote out the BN government.

    Like

  8. Dr Hsu
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 23:21:17

    young voter, go to my latest post and sign the petition and get all your peers to sign..

    I have trust in the youths and the younger generations. They are the country’s hope .

    Like

  9. Ken
    Feb 06, 2009 @ 23:40:39

    What is Gerakan’s stand on this illegal takeover in Perak? Why so quiet? Do they have any ideals left?

    Like

  10. cilipadi
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 00:13:29

    Interesting. I did a search on wikipedia on Najib Tun Razak. The description,

    A deeply unpopular politician among Malaysians, Najib has been labeled by his critics and the Malaysian Opposition as one of Malaysia’s most dishonest and dirtiest politician.

    He was first married to Tengku Puteri Zainah Tengku Eskandar; but is currently married to Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor.

    In many of the controversies about him, Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi identified Deputy Prime Minister Dato’ Sri Mohd Najib Razak on 6th April, 2008 as his probable successor in line with the ruling party’s tradition of political succession. Because of his implied involvement in the controversial Altantuya case, the court trial has gone through numerous irregularities and delays . Even former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir predicted that Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi will never allow his deputy Datuk Seri Najib Razak to take over as Prime Minister. He said that although Abdullah promises that Najib would succeed him by 2010, allegations would be hurled against the deputy prime minister before then to show up his inability to take over.

    EXCELLENT CREDENTIAL,…..Wow

    Like

  11. bbc
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 03:15:11

    dr, whats your party stand?

    the spineless Koh seems to say its ok.

    good luck, dr. you are a good man but I hope you take the same route as Zaid.

    Like

  12. tonyboneka
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 04:48:24

    Najib is already mad. Now I hope he will take over Prime Minister as soon as possible. His term will be less than 5 years.

    Like

  13. wassup
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 12:20:01

    Come the next election there will be no close call in Perak result. BN will be wipe out regardless whether they pave a new tar road or not for Perakians.

    Like

  14. Benny
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 12:56:16

    Here is the Hee Yit Foong home address:

    47 Jalan Tawas Baru 19,
    Taman Ehsan,
    30010 Ipoh,
    Perak.

    We hope all of us write to her to appeal her to withdrew her support to BN. If she received hundreds thousand of letter, her heart may melt!

    Like

  15. Dr Hsu
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 13:56:17

    I can only deduce from what was uttered in past meetings and in past statements by Gerakan leaders, Gerakan’s stand is that it will not condone “hopping’. In fact , most Gerakan grassroots will not view kindly those with “katak” culture.

    Like

  16. CYC
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 15:00:13

    Dr Hsu, you talking rubbish. What does that sentence mean? Not condone the act but recognize the legitimacy of the new BN state government ? Or am I right to say while you don’t think a particular doctor’s qualification is genuine but support his right to practice legally ? WTF way of rationalising an elite fallacy thinking process.

    Man on the street are the better bet for change not the elites. At least they are more direct and sincere, they don’t play with words. Cheers !

    Like

  17. DR Hsu
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 16:13:53

    CYC,

    i do not represnt Gerakan. ANd as far as I know, there is no official stand on this issue, not in our constitution and not in our ideology…

    So when above commentators asked me about Gerakan’s stand, I can only answered from my deduction from what the leaders said in the past.

    The grassroots, you can rest assured, most of them are against this, since if you ask the ordianry memenrs, most of them will say that this is wrong.

    But we are not the one holding the power to steer the direction of our party. If I have my way, the party is long out of BN.
    So i am not talking rubbish, but rather answering the queries ffrom commentators based on what I deduced from the past.

    And when I answered in the above comment that ” can only deduce Gerakan’s stand” it means that that is what I deduced, and that is not my stand ……and please understand the meaning of ‘deduce’

    The best known example I can deduce is from the incident of the 2 LIMs: Lim Boo Chang and Lim Chien Aun when the duo crossed-over to MCA from Gerakan . Then, the top guns all condemned the crossing over. SO that is why I answered above.

    So, please do not use the strong word of “rubbish’ and please read through the comment i made again above.

    I have told the whole world that it is not right. I even signed the petition and urge people to sign.

    But I do not represent Gerakan, just like you or even Najib does not represent Malaysia..

    Fortunately, even the top leaders cannot say that Gerakan is them because Gerakan belongs to tens of thousands of memebrs, many of them viewed this as not right.

    But under the constitution, what can we do at the moment, since we are not the one holding the power? But the members can always wait till the next party election to show their displeasure, just like Perak people can wait till the next GE to show their displeasure…

    The members can also choose the easy way out of quitting, just like Malaysians can choose the easy way out to migrate, but why should we? We can stay and wait for another day to fight for a better Malasyia, for a better party.

    So, please do not simply rubbish people, CYC,

    Like

  18. CYC
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 17:37:58

    Dr Hsu,

    I know you are not happy with my choice of word. But, i stand by my opinion and not apologetic about it. It may be true that there no official stand on the coup as far as Gerakan is concern. now, may ask when did Gerakan ever has its official stand on the numerous critical issues the nation faced in the past . I winder what it actually exist for if a political party forever with no official stand on major issues confronting the whole nation? i also wonder what is the use of its constitution or ideologies when it constantly defied its majorities view (60% as acknowledged) ?

    They can shout about their just, fair and equality slogan till the cow come home and use whatever terminology to justify their individual stand (but not party stand) but what how could one deduce the party’s stand since there are so many?

    You can call me arrogant but i will apologize for my rudeness (if you deem it that way) but not my opinion.

    Thank you and may find more pleasant comment from others.

    Like

  19. klm
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 18:21:11

    I wish you would read RPK’s entry on “What more to say? ”

    I had said poor generalship contributed to the loss. RPK mentioned an recent incidence of PR Perak arrogance – (sound more like DAP ?) that basically sunk the ship.

    In Chairman Mao’s term “engaging the enemy outside the gates”.

    So, is it BN’s onslought or is it PR’s own arrogance and poor leadership that lose the PR govt?

    This is a lesson for PR if it want to be the next govt.

    Like

  20. klm
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 18:25:35

    God help those who help themselves. If RPK is right, PR leaders in Perak did not help themselves.

    Like

  21. Monk
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 21:36:27

    Malaysians are so “fortunate” for the past four decades, firstly we had a dictator, then followed by another, branded as the “worse” sleepy successor and progressing to a dirtiest and dishonest one.

    But amid the past and future one, something is crystal clear that the dominant powerful party (and coalition) was and is (past and present) the culprit responsible for the most “divisive” policies in the country. Malaysians had been cheated by cheap talk and rhetoric that BN was responsible for the unity and stability.

    But the people should not discard commonsense and the wisdom to see clearly that for the past decades, the “fish always rot” from the head. The open squabbles were always between and among the BN component parties.

    The time has arrived that Malaysians have seen it all and able to discern the lies of government propaganda and the elites. For those not convinced the hypocrisy and fallacy of BN, just compared the general election manifesto of the coalition of 2004 and 2008 with the latest political developments.

    Can anybody in a sane mindset be convinced that the coup of Perak is a move to unite all Malaysians?

    Can UMNO be considered a cradle of Malaysian democracy and harmony?

    Is the allocation of millions of ringgit to its cronies and buying the numbers game considered ethical and just?

    Some people justified that UMNO is teaching Pakatan a lesson and even praised the recent coup as a “brilliant” political strategy of UMNO.

    Two wrongs don’t make a right. Sept 16 is a moot point and never happened. UMNO beat to Pakatan’s intention. It’s a blessing to Pakatan.

    We are in Feb, and the year is young. Watch and watch for the remaining year period. It’ll be interesting as the divine law will lash out shortly.

    There will be no fun spilling the secrets of the heavenly admonishment. Ha, ha, just watch the fun……divine karma has its way of dispensing justice, unlike our rulers or the unjust manmade laws.

    monk

    Like

  22. cilipadi
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 21:39:40

    My stand is whatever weaknesses in PR should not be used as excuses to justify BN immoral take over.

    Like

  23. klm
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 22:10:48

    Morality do not matter. This is a western idea.

    If you want to fight a battle, then make sure you win.
    Nothing is worse than a general spouting morality and getting the soldiers killed. This is plain stupidity.
    This is even immoral.

    PK need to grow up.

    Like

  24. klm
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 22:12:40

    Dont forget, this fight in Perak was started by PR.
    Not winning this fight is immoral.

    Like

  25. CYC
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 23:47:34

    Kalau tidak kerana bintang, manakan bulan terbit terang.
    Kalau tidak kerana kawan, manakan ku datang ke mari.

    Ini dipetik dari nyanyian nenek moyang kita.

    kini biarlah saya tambah seperti berikut:

    Kalau tidak kerana Bn , manakan kita hidup tak bermaruah.
    kalau tidak kerana apit kiri kanan UMNO seperti Gerakan, MCA & MIC, manakan sistem demokrasi dirogol serta lanun politik bermaharajalela tanpa diadili.

    Keselesaan hidup kadangkala menkaburi penglihatan samalah seperti keilmuan kadangkala menjejas keberanian untuk mengutuhi kebenaran.

    Like

  26. cilipadi
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 23:53:16

    Dr. Hsu and all,

    A true Malaysian was right, all of you who have principle, must take the lead to resign enmass from Gerakan.

    Your love for Gerakan should not justify your stay in Gerakan.

    You guys are just wasting your efforts in reviving Gerakan. Gerakan is DEAD, to me, as outsider. A true Malaysian was right all along, don’t be emotional, but be rational.

    Like

  27. cilipadi
    Feb 07, 2009 @ 23:59:33

    How not to show that u guys are acting in concert with your Gerakan leaders in accommodating with the ‘new’ Perak gorvenment if you people still insist of being in love and do not want to resign?

    Like

  28. sosong
    Feb 08, 2009 @ 18:28:12

    Just can’t understand why HRH take so short time to decide on the issue, BN or snap election?

    Like

  29. ahoo
    Feb 09, 2009 @ 12:45:58

    Dear Dr Hsu,

    I thought that political sanity would have return to Perak after the weekend BUT it sure looks like the beginning of political crisis at hand !

    As a layman and with sincere interest in the welfare of democratic Malaysia, I think at the way things are being handled by BN, democracy died long ago in Malaysia. What we are witnessing today with BN is actually just a party of warlords with mere “sidekick” smallish party as partners. Imagine a small branch chairman of UMNO can challenge a President of their own coalition party such a Gerakan, MIC or evn MCA. So what partnership is seen here ? To me, it is more like a master and slave relationship or a milder one like an employer to employee kind of deal.

    Do what I tell you to and you will be rewarded at the end of day and DON”T challenge what we believed in as this is OUR land for you all are just migrants / settlers, sound familiar, right ? This kind of politicians will drive this nation towards civil unrest as noboby can be suppressed all their living days.

    Do influence good party comrades of all races in your party to make a stand whenever injustices arises out of undemocratic policies that divides. What we Malaysians need are more sincere and God fearing politicians to influence the cabinet in not only doing good but also be accountable for all your deeds. Can the current BN coalition parties see to this ? Not in the next generation as the political systems are just too corrupt to have any impact for change. The idea of entering politic to enrich oneself is still the core motive for many law makers. And as such, it need the people of courage with uncorrupted mindset to stand together to transform this beloved nation to its former glory again for our children sake.

    Can anyone confirms that the seat of Pangkor was won VERY marginally last March 08 ? Can this new socalled MB be for all races when even his own people are not with him in his own stronghold ? To all my rational Malay friends in Perak, please take note that I fully endorse any programs that will alleviate the sufferings of the common folks in villages and kampongs for all races. I will not endorsed UMNO’s policy or any political parties’ policies of having the pie for themselves and their cronies with leftover crumps for all others. For the trade marks of the ruling regime over the last 50 years is nothing great but a legacy of plundering, bullying and corruption. Where contracts can be awarded via close door negotiation and prices usually being inflated many many thimes over. And it ends up with building collapsing into lake, remember that, highways from Kuala Selangor to Perak sinking even before handling over, customs building leaking, Parliament building leaking, Court sewage system bursting and so on and on. If we were to penned all down, the many wrongs may travel ’round the globe’ and return without stopping.

    Can’t we the people who loved this nation do something about it before we head down south like Zimbabwe ? Are we as true Malaysians not ashame of ourselves that we allowed migrants from neighbouring countries to hijack our political systems for their own bebefits ? Can’t we pool our recources together with our true local bumis to stop this tide of divisive and destructive political game ?

    So Dr Hsu, please lead us the layman of politic to see a new dawn for new Malaysia where our future generation can enjoy the company of each other without any apprehension. All this MUST begins at home for each of us to teach our children to respect others and the school teachers who are racist must be charged in court of law. If our current regime cannot be seen or made no efforts to restore the educational institution to the days of pre 1976, where teaching was a noble profession, we must be prepared to change this govt. We need a Obama like figure for the new Malaysia, anyone out there ? Datuk Zaid Ibrahim, my upmost respect to your wisdom of leaving UMNO and can you make yourself available to lead a new Malaysia with more rational people who share your dreams ?

    Like

  30. cilipadi
    Feb 09, 2009 @ 12:57:54

    ahoo, very well said. Kudos to you.

    Many Malaysian has forgotten what moral is to a man like you and me.

    Can a suspected murderer be someone in high position?

    siapa makan cili, dia rasa pedas

    Like

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