Let us use Bukit Gantang voting trend and work out the chances of winning in the next election by BN mathematically, assuming that the trend continues as it is and that Bukit Gantang’s constituents represent the thinking of all malaysians.
In this by election:
57% of Malay votes
25% of Chinese votes and
40% of the Indian votes.
Let us hypothesize a seat with 75% Malay, 20% Chinese and 5% Indians votes.
57% of 75% = 42.75%
25% of 20% = 5%
40% of 5% = 2%
which gives a total of 49.75% which is a loss, since a win needs more than 50% of votes in a Kawasan.
This means that BN will have no chance to win in any seats with 75% or less of Malay voters.
It can only hope to win in seats that have more than 75% of Malays and as far as I can recall, this is less than half the total seats in West malaysia.
Which means that if the present trends continue, BN will lose big in West Malaysia.
And do not forget, a general election is very different from a by election. In by election, the awesome Bn machinery is focused on a single spots, or in this case, 3 spots, whereas in a GE , its resources will be stretched and thus chances are even seats with 75% to 80% of malay votes are not safe and can best be classified as borderline.
This is purely based on Mathematical calculation, but I hope this will serve as a warning to the componet parties, they will be wiped out..