Mathematical calculation of BN’s chances

Let us use Bukit Gantang voting trend and work out the chances of winning in the next election by BN mathematically, assuming that the trend continues as it is and that Bukit Gantang’s constituents represent the thinking of all malaysians.

In this by election:

BN won 

57% of Malay votes

25% of Chinese votes and

40% of the Indian votes.

 

Let us hypothesize a seat with 75% Malay, 20% Chinese and 5% Indians votes.

57% of 75%   =  42.75%

25%  of 20%  =  5%

40% of 5% =   2%

which gives a total of 49.75% which is a loss, since a win needs more than 50% of votes in a Kawasan.

This means that BN will have no chance to win in any seats with 75% or less of Malay voters.

It can only hope to win in seats that have more than 75% of Malays and as far as I can recall, this is less than half the total seats in West malaysia.

Which means that if the present trends continue, BN will lose big in West Malaysia.

And do not forget, a general election is very different from a by election. In by election, the awesome Bn machinery is focused on a single spots, or in this case, 3 spots, whereas in a GE , its resources will be stretched and thus chances are even seats with 75% to 80% of malay votes are not safe and can best be classified as borderline.

This is purely based on Mathematical calculation, but I hope this will serve as a warning to the componet parties, they will be wiped out..

40 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. Richard Loh
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 13:34:29

    ha, ha, ha

    Why warn them, let them lose for once and only they can wake up and really serve the rakyat and not for themselves.

    Like

  2. petestop
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 15:38:35

    Ooo…ooo… not Ministry of Cocoa, but new Ministry… of Unity and Performance….
    whatever that is.

    Like

  3. chinseng
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 16:02:29

    Dr. Hsu,

    I was once told by a senior politician that general election results are like the pendulum swing. It is a big swing toward opposition (PR) in 308.

    Why not ( and why not you ) wish that it will make a big swing back to BN by the nest GE??

    Why bother to calculation BN chances now because they still have 4 solid years to do the “unity and performance” HaHa! hahaha!

    chinseng

    Like

  4. Kenny
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 17:03:27

    A good theoretical calculation, Dr. Hsu but even seats with strong Malay majority are not safe for BN.

    In Kuala Terengganu, Malays comprise 88.1% but BN still lost in a by-election.

    In the Malay heartlands, PAS battles with BN on Islamic credentials and with all the corruption that BN is famous for, many Malays are convinced that PAS practice a truer form of Islam. So a Malays majority seat may go to PAS.

    It may seem odd, but mixed seats with strong non-Malay component used to be safe seats for BN. The EC recognized this and created lot’s of mixed seats.

    These seats were considered unwinnable for the opposition and it held true as long as people voted along racial lines.

    In the old day, Malays will not vote for a DAP candidate while Chinese will not vote for a PAS candidate. If both parties field candidates the opposition vote is split and BN romps home to victory. (PKR had yet to exist).

    There are no more safe seats for BN in the Peninsula unless we are talking about the toilet seat!

    Like

  5. Kenny
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 17:09:08

    As a matter of interest, this is the average Malay vote Umno got for the following general elections:

    1999: 49%
    2004: 60%
    2008: 55%

    Malay support for Umno usually hovers about 55% and never exceeds 60%. In 2004 euphoria over the retirement of Mahathir and ascension of Abdullah push it to 60%. In 1999, Malay support collapsed to 49% over the Anwar sacking and it was the non-Malays who saved BN.

    Like

  6. pohwatchdog
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 17:30:27

    Any GE result or by election dependon issues that raise by the parties that involve in it. It depend on the sentimen, perception, performance and suitablity of a candidate in that particular situation and place. What I can analyse is PR won in Bukit Gantang is based on the situation taht exist. The non-Malays are suave and smart to give a candidate a chance. If the representative cannot performance, then the people will give them a boot.

    What I gather is service, work and policies that can draw support from the masses. What BN or PR representatives need to work hard from day one after each and every election. What tactics and strategies that can win the mind and heart of the people. If the non Malays can give their vote to PAS, then it can give back to BN. It is what we called as pendulum swings. Study election history in any part of the world that practice democracy, the people will decide the one that deliver. A new team have emerge and the strategy to win the mind and heart had begun.

    What the people want is better quality of life, education opportunities, multi racial composition in civil service, efficient local government service, flood control, bread and butter issues, sense of belonging, health care, social security and a clean environment. The people want someone that can deliver. Work harder KTK to implement more unity programmes, mobilize more grassroot unity projects such as Rukun Tetangga, unity club in schools, involve NGO and youth organization in unity programmes, getting more East Malaysian to visit West Malaysia and encourage multi cultural activities in Malaysia

    BN will gain back the trust and confidence of the people through brainstorming, engaging of new media, involving NGO organization, youth organization, creating equal opportunities for all Malaysians and etc. The people will support One Malaysia, Performance Now, People First slogan if civil service move and work harder. It reflect back on the government of the day.

    Like

  7. Disgusted
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 17:50:16

    Powatchdog,

    Waah! Long thesis. Talk is cheap. Just wait. Theory and rhetoric won’t work. For 63 years, many talked like you. Some in the grave now and maybe still talking like you in the life thereafter.

    Still the country is going to the dogs. What you have said is nothing new, old song new tune.

    monk

    Like

  8. cilipadi
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 18:21:52

    monk,

    Malaysian dogs can wrtie thesis, long some more.

    They can be Ministers as well, I think.

    Like

  9. petestop
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 18:31:44

    Actually I’m quite surprised, would have thought that KTK got booted out together Badawi, since he is a Badawi loyalist.

    He must have better trading skills that we care to admit.

    BN always talk talk talk… claim development this and that… but the folks at Bukit Gantang still without land title and squatting on state land, after all these years under BN.

    Like

  10. petestop
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 18:33:26

    And UMNO’s message during the by-election is that you Chinese are Communist, don’t deserve anything from the state.

    And Nizar is a Communist stooge.

    As I recall, Gerakan shares same ideology as DAP (although Gerakan no longer practising).
    In that same vein Gerakan is also Communist.

    Like

  11. petestop
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 18:40:26

    Kok Tsu Koon,

    Here is a first TODO for you as Minister in charge of Unity and Performance:

    Please get UMNO to stop calling Chinese as Communist.

    Like

  12. klm
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 18:42:38

    I am not happy at all that KTK got appointed minister by back door listing. You Gerakan people can laugh.

    But I must admire Najib’s administrative skill. If he has to appoint a light weight from a light weight party. Then give him a light weight job.

    I wonder if minister in PM’s dept for unity means he is in charge of BTN, the propoganda arm? Maybe he can do something good to save his soul.

    Like

  13. petestop
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 19:02:37

    Here’s what KTK need to resolve, if he is really serious

    http://perakbangkit.blogspot.com/2009/04/hinanya-nizar-sanggup-gadai-tanah-untuk.html

    Basically UMNO and likewise BeEnd (since BeEnd is UMNO), is saying you Chinese are all money face, that only Melayu is clear heart and beriman.

    With this kind of rhetoric throughout all the by-elections so far, I can only say to BeEnd,
    “Keep Up the Good Work!!” because comes GE-13 it is really Be End.

    Incidentally, be careful going to these Pro-UMNO blogs as it is infected with trojan horse that links to an UMNO online site.

    Luckily I uses Google Chrome which traps this and warns me of it.

    Like

  14. annoyed
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 19:18:53

    Losers got appointed
    2 pays (Minister & Senator) are awarded
    Not bad to be a loser, after all. Better than being a winner.

    Winners not got appointed
    what is the use of having elections.
    Disappointed? No, I got other role to play, he said.

    KTK, CMF are laughing to the banks

    Like

  15. klm
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 19:40:45

    I saw an appointment i dont like. Nor Yakop as minister in charge of EPU. Man. This is like letting a kleptomaniac into a department store. A fox into a hen house. sheeesh!

    I was relieved tha JJ was not in. the Mr. 10%.

    Like

  16. Justin Choo
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 20:18:09

  17. pohwatchdog
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 20:53:29

    Is PR practice what BN is doing? How PR especially PAS got their support? How DAP got their support? And how PKR managed to survice? On emotional charge, disatisfaction and sentiment to influence the masses. What is theory practise by BN is used by PR today? As what we have known today, BN have brought political stabilty, racial harmony and economic prosperity to all. Are we not happy with the development today? Are we jealous with other sucess? Even LKY in Singapore face a lot of social problems. Our country too is facing numerous problems with aging society, unemployed youngster, mushrooming of cyber cafes, indiscipline, social problems and etc. We need to move on to overcome this numerous challenge ahead of us. What is wrong is someone that have the intelligent, capablities and inovative ideas to hold unity and performance management to make Malaysia a better place for all.

    We all need to be gentleman enough to accept defeat and climb back to work for a just and fair society. God bless Malaysian who work hard for all.

    Like

  18. Disgusted
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 21:05:43

    Cilipadi,

    Dr Old Horse said he campaign not for his son,
    If he did not, west rise the sun,
    Tribal convention, former PM’s son always move in,
    Permanent accommodation in an inn,
    This is Bolehland,
    Rule by dynasty hand,
    Poly-ticks you know,
    Don;t say no,
    Krishmuddin, Lajib and many more,
    It can be a bore,
    But it’s tribal tradition,
    Always a condition,
    Leaving a seed,
    They say is a need,
    So to power they pass
    Like a marathon baton they passed,
    They think they are owners of this nation,
    Without reservation,
    An unwritten jungle law,
    Yes, awake we saw,
    It’s time to change,
    And rearrange,
    We will together,
    Strength we gather,
    Kicking and booting, ticks and pollwatchdogs,
    Like rolling logs,
    Into the wilderness,
    And bring in all goodness,
    We must, we must,
    With lust,
    For this land,
    We call Bolehland.

    monk

    An ownership

    Like

  19. petestop
    Apr 09, 2009 @ 22:55:08

    BN brings racial harmony, my ass…

    Just a stroll through Bukit Gantang constituency and you can get a lot of racist messages enamating from non other than UMNO camp.

    The last I check, UMNO calls the shot in all BN affairs, and the rest just fall in line.

    Therefore, BN is the biggest racist party in Malaysia and after 50 years Merdeka, Malaysia still split along racial lines.

    All this thanks to BeEnd.

    Like

  20. klm
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 08:18:21

    Pohwatchdog. I pity you. I really do. If you a politician, you are so out of touch with the thinking and aspiration of the rakyat. I should also say that you are out of sync with Najib’s vision. You are a low level BN stuff that is stuck in time. You are the reason why BN failed. You failed to change. You are dinosaur. You sing the song of BN with without understanding anything.

    The biggest thing you can do for your self is stand for election. Put yourself to the test. See what the rakyat think.

    Like

  21. klm
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 09:00:33

    Koh Tsu Koon’s new job is to police the ministers as the one responsible for tracking of the KPIs. The idea is good. But can anyone imagine him being able to do this job. He is a wimp and a lightweight. So what performances are we talking about. He is put there precisely because of his character.

    I assume that he wont have the budget to hire Special Officers. So no high paying govt jobs for Gerakan hangers on.

    Like

  22. annoyed
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 10:18:21

    Sad, sad, sad is what we can tell Najib
    about his new Cabinet line-up
    My kitchen Cabinet looks better than Najib cabinet

    How can you elect people that are not elected in GE and party election in your Cabinet? We may not like Khairy, but the fact is that he has won party election and elected as Umno Youth Chief. Is this not should be the way, the spirit of democracy?

    Like

  23. LangChiaPek
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 10:46:38

    Dr Hsu,

    Great analysis !

    Good for UMNO to label non mamaks as the traitors to Barisan Najis.

    Very soon you will get a call from the new belakang mali punya Unity and Performance Minister to discuss over this topic.

    LangChiaPek

    Like

  24. Meng
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 10:51:50

    “”BN have brought political stabilty, racial harmony “” You talk through your Arse.

    Go and listen to the UMNO or Bn talk, how they condemn the nons and incite racial hatred towards the non malays esp the Chinese.

    Even the fair minded Malays don’t like it.

    Like

  25. LangChiaPek
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 10:52:26

    on second tho, even kena wipe out, still can get rear entry via SenatorShip …

    like how your party president did

    Like

  26. Gerakan Watcher
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 11:06:06

    He was close to Pak Lah before. but for the last few months, he has cultivated Najib…. Going inside to change from inside, an ideal he carried from 1982 till now… 27 years and still counting…

    Gerakan has lost its integrity with the acceptance of this position through the back door.

    Like

  27. klm
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 11:21:03

    Going inside to change from inside — this sounds like a virus. Hahaha!. Gerakan a virus.

    Description of a virus (wikipedia)

    A virus (from the Latin virus meaning toxin or poison) is a sub-microscopic infectious agent that is unable to grow or reproduce outside a host cell.

    Like

  28. klm
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 11:22:22

    In political term it means a mosquito party that cannot function on its own. It needs a host party i.e. UMNO.

    Like

  29. petestop
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 13:31:57

    klm, good analogy there😉

    Like

  30. pohwatchdog
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 21:24:56

    Give due respect to KTK. LGE is the same. Looking for signal from up there, sometime looking left and sometime looking right or even down. What sort of leader? Parasite? What we want is performance now? The fright stage is on. Worry that the people see through them. What CAT? Competence…accountable… transparency. Let the people be the judge. Time will tell us whether the new cabinet can perform. We need to be colour blind. Look how the campaign situation in Bukit Gantang. Are we practising democracy? Let hear the needs of the masses. Service must continue no matter PR or BN.

    Like

  31. klm
    Apr 10, 2009 @ 22:02:41

    Hey. Pohwatchdog. The masses had spoken in Bukit Gantang. No BN. No Gerakan. What more do you want?

    Like

  32. LangChiaPek
    Apr 11, 2009 @ 00:57:49

    Dr Hsu,

    Looks like your party president learned the queue from Semi Value and Mahathir Mohamad a/l Iskandar Kutty in twisting and turning …

    Actively denied what he said during March 2008 …

    Man with credibility and principle ? My foot !!!

    否认曾说不以上议员方式入阁
    许子根:出任部长是以国为重
    王德齐 | 4月10日 傍晚5点10分
    koh tsu koon gerakan pc 100409 01刚获委为上议员并出任首相署部长的许子根(右图)今午矢口否认,他在大选期间曾说过,不会以受委上议员的方式进入内阁的言论。

    他指出,他当时只是说宁愿选择以民选的方式,而非受委的方式出任中央部长。

    “我没有说我不要,我只是说比较喜欢民选,而不是受委的方式。”

    “在投票日前,反对党声称不需投选国阵候选人,因为就算他们落败,还是可以受委为上议员。这是指向我和谢宽泰,我们认为这是不公平。”

    承认向纳吉表达入阁意愿

    许子根也驳斥“走后门”的说法,但承认的确曾向新任首相纳吉表达入阁的意愿。

    “我们的确向他(纳吉)表明愿意服务,但是这是他的权力。对我来说,这是具有挑战,并且是一种贡献,但这不是为了自己。”

    国家面对挑战才毅然入阁

    koh tsu koon gerakan pc 100409 03此外,许子根指出,和去年大选相比,目前的情况已经有所不同,国家面对的挑战才是最重要的事务,因此不应非议他通过受委上议员入阁的决定。

    他强调,入阁不是为了本身的利益,而是以国为重,志在为人民做出贡献,因此大家应该看重他的服务表现。

    也是民政党主席的许子根,今午为该党智库举办的财经研讨会发表闭幕演词后,在新闻发布会上受询时如此表示。

    在野党“扒粪”阻止他服务

    他表示,在野党之所以会“扒粪”,批评他“走后门”入阁,是因为他们不希望他在部长职务上做出很好的成绩。

    “我劝告其他身在民联的政党应该专注在服务人民的表现,就让我们来一场正面的竞赛。”

    担任槟州首席部长18年的许子根是在去年308大选中选择“上京”,竞选巴都交湾以准备出任中央部长。不料,他却败给行动党候选人拉玛沙米。

    在事隔一年后,许子根昨日获得新任首相以委任上议员的方式纳入内阁,负责管理团结和部长表现事务。他今早也在国家皇宫宣誓就职。

    今早唔六部长谈表现指标

    许子根也透露,他已经在昨天开始筹备各部门的关键表现指标(KPI),他在今早总共会见6名部长,包括高等教育部长卡立诺丁,并准备在下周会见剩余的部长。

    他指出,其责任并非重整表现评估制度,而是与其他政府单位,包括大马行政现代化和管理机构(Mampu)配合来改善政府的表现。

    他说,他将与其他部长合作,共同草拟一份总体的关键表现指标,但是他会针对各个部门草拟不同的指标,有些是以数据来衡量,有些则以质量来衡量。各部门将有30天的时间来呈交初步的指标。

    他说,他们也将考量如何纳入公众的意见,其中包括进行民调,或是通过媒体收集意见。

    不过,他拒绝谈论政府届时将会采取什么行动,来对付表现不佳的部长,并表示目前尚言之过早。

    许子根也指出,大家都开玩笑说他是“学长”,不过他强调,纳吉才是“总学长”,每个部长也是“学长”,而他只是其中一人。

    受询及他是否会成为“不受欢迎的学长”时,他则认同不能一味要求受欢迎。但是,他表示,只要行事公正、坚定和友善,那么他的行动就会被接受。

    称废除内安令已有好进展

    另一方面,针对内阁增加华裔代表一事,许子根试图淡化此说,并称部长并非只是负责照顾单一种族的利益。

    他指出,纳吉之前已经表示,内阁成员反映了国阵所代表的多元社会,这是国阵一直以来所奉行的权力共享原则。

    “最重要的是,我们必须重新调整策略更加亲民,更有效获得人民的反应,以确保政府所执行的政策是符合所有人民的意愿。”

    询及民政党之前曾要求废除内安法令和释放所有内安法令扣留者,他在入阁后将如何跟进此事,许子根回应说,此事已经出现良好的进展。

    他表示,纳吉在上任不到两天内就宣布检讨这项法令和13名扣留者,因此应该以正面的角度来看待此事,而他们已经针对此事表态。
    承认向纳吉表达入阁意愿
    国家面对挑战才毅然入阁
    在野党“扒粪”阻止他服务

    http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/102121

    Like

  33. LangChiaPek
    Apr 11, 2009 @ 01:21:51

    Like

  34. klm
    Apr 11, 2009 @ 11:58:36

    I did not realise Koh Tsu Koon lost by such wide margin. Any decent honourable man would have resigned.

    Sigh! Decency and honour is not part of his trait. He is just another sleazy lying politician.

    A politician joke (lifted from somewhere else)
    —————————————————-

    While walking down the street one day, a Gerakan CM is tragically hit by a lorry and dies. His soul arrives in heaven and is met by St. Peter at the entrance.

    “Welcome to Heaven,” says St. Peter. “Before you settle in, it seems there is a problem. We seldom see a high official around these parts, you see, so we’re not sure what to do with you.”

    “No problem, just let me in.” says the Gerakan big wig.

    “Well, I’d like to but I have orders from higher up. What we’ll do is have you spend one day in Hell and one in Heaven. Then you can choose where to spend eternity.”

    “Really, I’ve made up my mind. I want to be in Heaven,” says the Gerakan CM.

    “I’m sorry but we have our rules.” And with that, St. Peter escorts the Gerakan bigwig to the lift and he goes down, down, down to Hell. The doors open and he finds himself in the middle of a green golf course. In the distance is a club and standing in front of it are all his friends and other politicians who had worked with him, everyone is very happy and in evening dress. They run to greet him, hug him, and reminisce about the good times they had while getting rich at expense of the people. They play a friendly game of golf and then dine on lobster and caviar. Also present is the Devil ( BN, too), who really is a very friendly guy who has a good time dancing and telling jokes.

    They are having such a good time that, before he realizes it, it is time to go. Everyone gives him a big hug and waves while the lift rises. The lift goes up, up, up and the door reopens on Heaven where St. Peter is waiting for him.

    “Now it’s time to visit Heaven.” So 24 hours pass with the Gerakan CM joining a group of contented souls moving from cloud to cloud, playing the harp and singing. They have a good time and, before he realizes it, the 24 hours have gone by and St. Peter returns.

    “Well then, you’ve spent a day in Hell and another in Heaven. Now choose your eternity.”

    He reflects for a minute, then the head of state answers: “Well, I would never have thought it, I mean Heaven has been delightful, but I think I would be better off in Hell.”

    So Saint Peter escorts him to the lift and he goes down, down, down to Hell. Now the doors of the lift open and he is in the middle of a barren land covered with waste and garbage. He sees all his friends, dressed in rags, picking up the trash and putting it in black bags. The Devil comes over to the Gerekan bigwig and lays an arm on his neck.

    “I don’t understand,” stammers the Gerakan CM. Yesterday I was here and there was a golf course and club and we ate lobster and caviar and danced and had a great time. Now all there is a wasteland full of garbage and my friends look miserable.

    The Devil looks at him, smiles and says, “Yesterday we were campaigning. Today you voted for us!”

    Like

  35. Disgusted
    Apr 11, 2009 @ 15:20:29

    Kim,

    Looks like Semi Valued has more balls than you know who, knocked down joke. Threatening that MIC should leave the Tribal coalition…latest news.

    monk

    Like

  36. pohwatchdog
    Apr 11, 2009 @ 17:58:56

    Who is the devil or angel? KLM , Look what your comades in PR trying to do. Quoting religious verse? Who are we to judge a man? Performance dictate the support. My support to the one that work for all. Let God decide.
    Are you be too bias and cannot accept criticism? It is part of human to accept what can come along. Maybe God give us a test and whether we passed it. It is not us to point out who can go to Heaven. Am I right? KTK work harder, performance and accept in good grace. Work for a fair and just society. Gerakan still have hope as long as you gerak. They are frightened with the gerak movement and might shake them out from their rain tree.

    What is your interpretation on your comrade campaigning in the by election using religious verse ?. Is it against our own faith. One plus one is the same. Only difference master. Only know how to approve. Lulus or PAS. I am sure KLM can understand what I mean.

    Sentiment and emotion rule the day.

    Like

  37. klm
    Apr 11, 2009 @ 21:03:28

    pohwatchdog.

    KT has not delivered anything substantial. If you refer to Penang, any monkey can run Penang in the boom time. Nah!. KTK dont have any performance to show.

    Sorry. I retract a bit. His appointment made Samy Vellu vomit blood. That is something.

    Like

  38. Disgusted
    Apr 11, 2009 @ 21:12:55

    Kim,

    You are damned right. Facts rule the day. Only those in self denial are like ostriches burying their thick skull under the sand.

    monk

    Like

  39. pohwatchdog
    Apr 12, 2009 @ 18:05:18

    KTK contribute to tourism industry. Are we proud that Georgetown is a heritage city? Do we have Queensbay Mall, Jelutong Highway, Second Bridge and etc in Penang?

    No doubt… it need constant support from all side to contribute into a vibrant and lively city? Can PR claimed without problems governed Penang today? Look at the flip flop and uncertain policies of PR? Can we claim the PR is the hero of the day only? Can PR have substance to bring back the shining crowm of Penang? We cannot deny the contribution that have brought by GERAKAN to Penang and the nation as a whole.

    Gerakan shall return one day with determination, better service, dedication and listen more to the masses. The people will decide who govern the country.

    Like

  40. LangChiaPek
    Apr 13, 2009 @ 21:29:53

    pohwatchdog,

    you just qualified yourself to KTK’s group of KPI drafting team

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