The trend continues

Another by election is now over. BN has again lost despite its massive by election machinery.

The trend of the last general election has not changed. If this trend continues, there would be a likely change of federal government for the first time in Malaysian history. But either way, the results would be close, and I do not foresee any side getting more than 2/3 of the seats . So a 2 party system would be taking shape, notwithstanding the uncertainties within PKR and PAS.

UMNO and MCA would still win some seats, and BN would still win the majority seats in East Malaysia. BUt for smaller parties like Gerakan , PPP and MIC, where most of their traditional seats are in mixed constituencies, their hope of getting seats will be very slim.

It is not wrong to say that the future of these parties are not in their hands but rather in the hands of the dominant partner. If the latter changes for good, then their chances of survival are higher. On the contrary , as I have often repeated, if changes are just cosmetics or slow in coming, then these parties will face annihilation comes the next round.

So far, there is nothing to cheer for , especially with the death of TBH and the so many unanswered questions. If this death is not properly investigated, then chances are this one person is going to bring the downfall of many parties.

36 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. mccann105
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 11:48:28

    with this continous momemntum..may the 2 party come into reality soon….the b national seemed to be making more n more mistakes . seemed too many players each shooting off their hip…gerakan m c a n minor partners are gettting nowhere…! too insignificant .

    Like

  2. klm
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 11:50:41

    Gerakan and Koh Tsu Koon are just mosquitoes. It is time to spray insecticides on them.

    Like

  3. klm
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 12:45:09

    I presume the Chinese areas in Pematang Pasir were Gerakan areas. If so it means a 100% rejection of Gerakan there. A very bad trend indeed.

    Like

  4. A true Malaysian
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 13:14:06

    To have an impact on the next GE, MCA, Gerakan & MIC need to quit BN. If not, they will fare badly and will be buried for good. Umno will blame these parties for not getting support of non-Malays, but at the same time, they (Umno) still ignorant that the Malay support on them are on declining trend, as what we see in Permatang Pauh by-election.

    This is the only way for MCA, Gerakan and MIC to be in the main stream politics, no other way. In fact, if they quit BN, Umno will wake up from its ignorance, and have no choice, but to go for solid change, not cosmetic one.

    Having said this, I don’t see they will do the necessary. They will still use their tools to the maximum to remain in power. Still, rakyat is not silly, or in Hokkien, kong kam as what Teng Chang Khim said in a ceramah, to continue voting for BN.

    A lot of Heads need to roll, Umno. You have not much choices.

    Like

  5. mycuntree
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 14:53:53

    Dear Dr Hsu,

    I concur with your assessment that, as it is, BN will be out of power come the next GE. It would be a tragedy if it did not. Why tragedy? The only way I can see it holding on is for it to do so the “unconventional” way. And I don’t mean the positively unconventional way. A good and recent example would be how it wrestled Perak state from the Opposition.

    As a Gerakan member yourself, you must be fully aware of how and why Malaysia cannot afford to have BN continue to manage it over, even the next election, again; if it is really for the people’s interest.

    I can only see another Myanmar in the making should BN continue to rule in the future.

    The current Opposition coalition is far from being a perfect replacement for BN. But the key thing is that this country requires a major shakeup in its political morass, and that must involve throwing out the present ruling coalition. Come to think of it, perhaps this country is in dire need of a revolution, to shake it out of its political and racial stupor.

    Like

  6. ahoo
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 15:03:59

    Wonder when will our big brother wakes up ? After being beaten so many times, hope that they are not immune to it. Well, they may even console themselves that most of the by-elections were opposition seats anyway and as such it doesn’t affect the status quo.

    In fact I was of the opinion that if there is a by-election in a bn seat or stronghold, maybe that would provide us a better view of whether they (BN) stil calls the shot. Hopefully, we can get to see one soon.

    Like

  7. Meng
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 15:08:55

    Is it too early to say a trend has been set. All the by election held were in areas where PR enjoys a sizeable support on the ground. Even before going into the election they were sure of a victory..with the amount of BN/umno baggages and the choice of candidates.

    The real test or indicator to prove the trend mentioned is on a byelection held in a umno/BN stronghold. It is here whether they have lost the support or the voters still cling on to their believe umno will provide a better livelihood … minus the corrutions. It is also here whether Pakatan can penetrate and neutralise the umno supporters???

    A win by Pakatan in umno stronghold would drive fear into BN/umno and this would prove the trend is in place and not otherwise.

    Like

  8. petestop
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 15:12:47

    Doc Hsu,

    We need more MPs with conscience and who speak their conscience instead of toeing party line (even when that party loses their founding principles)

    Even if you come out as independent candidate, we will support you !! Even if we cannot vote for you, we can still donate time and money to your cause.

    Currently, there are too many jokers and clowns in our parliament. Its time to give them the boot and move our country into the 21st century.

    Like

  9. Meng
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 15:37:03

    Some how or rather ahoo also spoke on the same line of thinking. 5 minutes apart. …

    Like

  10. Chabalang
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 16:02:17

    My key concern is what BN will do to stay in power (by hook or by crook?). It’s really scary to imagine or visualise what the BN (or rather UMNO) may orchestrate just to stay in power…

    To me, it’s plain simple that BN leaders know what are their problems BUT it does not benefit the key players to change…just look at the opposition/problems that OTK is currently facing.

    Like

  11. Dr Hsu
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 16:09:57

    I just had a discussion with a former DAP state chairman who had left the party. He came as a patient and after the consultation we had a short discussion on the political situation.

    Both of us agreed that MCA is going for a split, and probably a big split. If OTK is forced to relinguish his presidency, a group will split and join PKR. If CSL lost, another group will join PKR.

    Either way, BN will be very weakened, and the 15 seats that MCA is holding will be ‘colder than water’, as the colloquial saying goes.. MCA factions are known to pull each other legs in GE.

    BUt we also agreed that PR is also very shaky and the arrogance of certain PAS leaders does not augur well for the opposition. PKR also has toomany trojan horses.

    The rakyat will be between a devil and the deep blue sea.. But so far, people are going to give the deep blue sea a try since the devil that they know had not given them any hope of changing.

    We also agree that it would be tough for small parties like Gerakan and PPP, and even MIC is going to have problems surviving, but with some many Indian-majority parties, Indian votes are going to be very split…

    Like

  12. A true Malaysian
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 16:17:33

    Meng,

    I don’t see it’s too early that the trend has been set. I would say the stone is cast. Trend of losing support is there, irrespective of whether they are PR or BN strongholds. You can see the margin for the seats BN won are relatively lower, and many of them contributed by postal votes.

    Of course, if a by-election is to be held at so-called BN stronghold, then the trend is clearer.

    Like

  13. klm
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 16:26:15

    People. We personally need to be prepared for the lean years that are coming. Beside talking politics, we need to take care of ourselves and loved ones.

    If you remember the story of the Old Testament about Joseph and his intepretation go the Pharaoh’s dream. The next many years will be lean years for us. BN had been and is bleeding the country. If PR wins the next election there still will be many years of turmoils.

    Being enlightened people, we must be prepared for these years. Stock up on funds and keep them safe. Minimise your debts. Take action now.

    Like

  14. A true Malaysian
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 16:31:44

    Dr. Hsu,

    Rakyat eyes are clear. We know who are the trojan horses and those ultras. Come next GE, these people will not be in the list of candidates. Anwar, Lim Kit Siang, Lim Guan Eng and Nik Aziz are not silly not to see this.

    There are many ultras especially in PAS, but at the same time, we could see many liberals as well. These liberals will not let the ultras to have their whim and fancy. They are the reasons why Rakyat still continue supporting PAS candidates though we see the antics of the ultras.

    PKR, though many of the members are ex-Umno rejects, they are many members with multiracial mindsets there as well. They can neutralise those with Umno mindsets.

    Well, rakyat have not much choices, put it this way.

    Like

  15. Meng
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 16:37:41

    true malaysian

    There is also another trend Dr Hsu did not mention. The trend of buying frogs. Umno is going shopping … watch out .. many frogs available..

    Catching frogs difficult ..buying is easier, just pay the price.

    Like

  16. A true Malaysian
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 16:47:12

    Meng,

    You are right. If these frogs have no foresight and are bought over, that’s shall be the end of their political career come next GE.

    As I said, rakyat eyes are clear who are the frogs. Many muslim brothers and sisters are not in favour of policing. Put it this way, no one like being policed day-in, day-out.

    Like

  17. John
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 18:08:36

    I think its good for a group of good people to stand as independents if they cannot find a party that represent the true interest of citizens. In this way they can be non partisan to party causes and make influences for better performances for the ruling majority party. I would suggest people like Haris, you and other to think seriously about this and I am sure there will be support for alternative voices if they truely speak for the people.

    Like

  18. ahoo
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 18:10:59

    Meng,

    Sorry for stealing your thoughts ! Maybe, great men think alike. Anyway self glorification is a non starter. Let’s look forward to see a great battle between PKR & BN in a stronghold of BN. That would be the real battle and icing on the cake.

    Like

  19. A true Malaysian
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 18:11:49

    John,

    I sokong penuh. Please include RPK as well.

    Like

  20. romerz
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 18:12:24

    “People. We personally need to be prepared for the lean years that are coming.”

    klm, I share your sentiments.

    Malaysian economy is heavily dependent on the subsidies provided for by oil money and the oil is set to run out in 14 years.

    Not only that, I was reliably informed by someone in the industry that Malaysia will become a net importer of oil in 2 years.

    If you are interested as to how I came to the 14 years figure, I wrote about a few days ago in my blog.

    http://romerz.blogspot.com/2009/08/malaysias-oil-1426-years-left.html

    Like

  21. klm
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 19:59:27

    romerz.

    (1) I was told all of Malaysia oil and LNG output for next 10 years have been presold to China Japan etc. I am not sure what is the implications.

    (2) I was also told – source in Treasury- that Govt is depending on Petronas money to pay bills. When Petronas money dwindle, I just dont want to imagine the results.

    So back to my original comment on the lean years.

    Like

  22. Kenny Gan
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 21:44:05

    If MCA split, I don’t think the breakaway faction will join PKR. They can threaten to join but only to gain leverage. The ideology of MCA and PKR are just too different, the gap is actually wider than between DAP and PAS.

    What will happen is that the two factions will fight each other until one is eliminated. Some of the losers may join PKR or DAP but they will have to leave their MCA mentality behind.

    For MCA. MIC and Gerakan to leave BN now will de-stabilize the country. Umno will become ultra-racist and may stoke up ethnic tension. Not that these parties are likely to leave BN anyway as their leaders want to keep their plum positions.

    It’s better for MCA, MIC and Gerakan to stay with BN and contribute to the 2 party system when BN loses the next general election. We don’t want BN to break up although there will have to be some restructuring with parties in East Malaysia pulling out to join PR.

    Replacing BN with another 1 party system is not a desirable outcome as it will soon become as decadent and arrogant as BN if it has no fear of losing power.

    Like

  23. chanjoe
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 21:48:19

    BN may still be able to hold the fort unless PR leaders act tough on their turn coats and trojan horses. What DSAI should do is to sack Zukifli Nordin immediately to show us that he means business and start cleaning the house for PKR in anticipation for the GE13. Next to go should be Wee Choo keong who was given a life saving line to contest.

    So, BN will have still have some life to stay if DSAI and other PR leaders still dont have any guts to sack and clear their trojan horses.

    Like

  24. Meng
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 22:06:58

    Looks like the idea on a coalition of independent is mentioned. Woh good idea, non partisan … why not. They would be able to hantam left and right without any obligation to any party… fight for good governance…

    Well said John

    Like

  25. Amin
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 22:28:36

    The situations now and pre 308 are almost the same insofar as UMNO is concerned with the blatant display of arrogance and racism. In fact, in some instances, more severe- with very senior leaders uttering very disturbing words.

    Then again the racial blasts from Utusan, the Khir Toyol’s mansion and PKFZ scandals and the TBH death, make the case so much easier for the silent majority voters to vote for PR comes the next election.

    BN’s prospect to govern after the next GE is in grave jeopardy.

    Like

  26. A true Malaysian
    Aug 26, 2009 @ 23:34:54

    Kenny Gan,

    I myself is not in favour of split group from MCA, Gerakan or MIC to join Pakatan Rakyat, as many of them are opportunists (of course not Dr. Hsu and the likes).

    My contention that MCA, Gerakan or MIC to quit BN is to tell Umno that, enough is enough, and pressure Umno to change for real, not cosmetic one. But, like you, I don’t expect it to happen.

    People like Chua Jui Meng, and the former Klang MCA wanita looks genuine in having their mindsets changed to multiracial one. After all, they are former colleagues of DSAI. DSAI knows their characters better from there.

    But, irrespective of these parties quit BN, Umno is Umno. They won’t change, they are already so ultra. My view is that, pulling out of BN will not destabilize the country political landscape.

    Dr. Hsu himself is in favour of Gerakan quiting BN because of his love in Gerakan’s multiracial ideology. But, ideology is still ideology if it is not put into practice.

    Quiting BN and stay as 3rd force without joining PR. That is workable, but these people won’t chose to leave their comfort zone.

    Like

  27. cilipadi
    Aug 27, 2009 @ 13:43:06

    monk,

    One mountain cannot to contain 2 tigers. This is what MCA is all about.

    In MCA history, No.1 & No. 2 are all not in good term. Ling LS was the luckiest No.2 because No.1 was in jail for CBT.

    This is what I learned since I landed in Malaysia. MCA does not need No. 2 post. What for?

    MCA is a gone case, as far as I am concerned.

    No. 1 makan cili, No. 2 rasa pedas

    Like

  28. Meng
    Aug 27, 2009 @ 14:28:11

    Having a independent candidate in an election is never easy. The candidate must be known throughout the constituency and the works he has had carried out are worthy of praise. His name be published periodically in the media and at regular intervals seen to be fighting for a good cause.

    His name will spread and has a platform to hang on otherwise it is no good.

    Like

  29. klm
    Aug 27, 2009 @ 14:57:05

    I heard there may be another by-election coming in Selangor. Another act of god. Let’s watch this trend.

    Like

  30. robertchai
    Aug 27, 2009 @ 18:20:11

    Is it time BN need to rethink their strategy? The voters are very savvy and easily convince. BN fault is their choice of candidate. A man of principle ,integrity, clean and trustworthy candidate is very important in the eye of the voters. BN leaders need to look throughly for a suitable candidate that can muster support.

    It is as good as time to revise their strategy in every corner to win back the next GE

    Like

  31. cilipadi
    Aug 27, 2009 @ 19:35:06

    monk,

    Look like someone has changed his thinking. Good sign. But he is still dreaming, hahahaha.

    robert makan cili, chai rasa pedas

    Like

  32. Meng
    Aug 27, 2009 @ 19:56:16

    The time is not right for BN to rethink their strategy. Their present strategy is good and solid with issues that PR cannot breach.

    They also have the best ability in choosing the right candidate… through good homework.

    Why change..has the question being answered???

    Like

  33. moo la la
    Aug 27, 2009 @ 21:51:20

    Najib announced a new minister of KPI reporting to KTK minister of KPI and Unity. If this is not a vote of no confidence on KTK, I dont know what is.

    This new appointment meant that KTK had been disappointing and got nothing fixed in the last 6 months unless you count making ABC soup as one.

    If he has any pride in himself, he should resign now.

    He has brought shame to Gerakan with his non performance.

    Like

  34. Meng
    Aug 28, 2009 @ 01:11:00

    Umno is very quiet on the issue ..caning of Kartika, exceptional quiet. ?? Why, are they in fear…with the caning, will umno loose the wanita support in the next GE.

    PAS and umno fighting to show who is more islamic..PAS has mentioned the caning must be executed…Najib asked Kartika to appeal???

    Whose opinion is more attractive to the malays???l

    Or their (umno) wives are drinkers and fear their wives would be next to be caned??? just joking

    sheeesh we are not allowed to pass comments.

    Like

  35. mccann105
    Aug 28, 2009 @ 01:24:33

    the gerakan president is not just as innocent as we see beneath him he has more tricks up his sleeves….one very traits i noticed is his skin is as thick as my leather shoe…with an another add on , it seemed he is not performaning to par…perhaps keeping him there is a lifeline for gerakan to looked relevant..perhpas dr hus, as an insider u have info ?

    Like

  36. CYC
    Aug 28, 2009 @ 10:45:35

    moo la la,

    Apart from what u said, it is another typical UMNO modus operandi to phase out non Malay from GLC once his/her task of reviving the ailing organization is completed. Trace back history of PROTON and PERODUA, u will see clearly how they roped in non Malay to helm their marketing dept and then got booted out by awarding a Datukship and some other sweet deal and replaced with a Malay. i hate to sound racist but it is a fact. Any one from MCA or Gerakan would like to challenge this observation.

    Just to add one more point, KTK should be reporting to Idris Jala as far as managing KPI is concern. Idris is the guru not KTK.

    Like

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