Will there be a tsunami 13??

Today, I am going tp post 2 diagrams, one from Merdeka Centre and one is from internet which I have modified.

untitled

(click diagram to enlarge)

This latest survey by Merdeka centre shows that 50% of voters are more concerned with economic issues, especially rising cost of living.

In KL, anyone with a family income of RM2000 will face difficulties in coping with the rise in the cost of living.

Only about 21% care about political issues such as political instability and racial statements. If you look carefully, only about 3% really cares for corruption.

This is similar to what happens normally in the West. The ordinary and average voter, called Joe-6-packs, are more concerned with his or her daily life, whether he has sufficient money to send his child to school, sufficient money to by his 6 packs (beers usually come in a pack of 6), and probably crime around his house, etc.

When someone comes along and promises Joe a change of his life for the better, cheaper beers and foodstuff and so on, he would tend to vote for this change.

Looking at what the PM has been doing, he is trying to create an atmosphere of change aimed at this group of Joes-6-packs. 

Whoever wants the votes of this group must promise something more  concrete than abstract, like better disposable income, cheaper things, no long queues in government departments that these people frequent, able to move around neighbourhood without worrying about crime, etc.

To this group of people, feeling good is very important. ANd feel good factors are being dispensed.

More money will be injected into the economy and I suspect the coming budget will be like an election budget with plenty of goodies.

I stay in SS2, and lately we can see that within the town centre, there are 2 police pondoks being set up (why the need to have 2 so near each other?). Whether these pondoks can bring down crime rate does not matter, the joes-6-packs are already feeling more secure.

ALl these will create a feel good environment, and do not be surprised that a snap election be called in th second half of next year, when the economy starts to pick up and enough feel good atmosphere being created.

So I would like to post a diagram which I obtained from the internet  and modified slightly, and pose this question to all of you out there, will tsunami 13 as depicted in the diagram happen if economy picks up and crime rate improves?

prediction

(Click to enlarge)

17 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. clearwater
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 12:30:34

    If the economy improves, jobs are plentiful, crime contained and basic daily living necessities are met, there will be no rocking of the boat, much less a tsunami in the next GE. Look at Bagan Pinang, the rural/working class voted for bread and butter, not political issues. Corruption, abuse of power, arrogance means little to the hungry and needy; feed them and you get their vote.

    Like

  2. klm
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 13:21:17

    Dr. Hsu. There is one fancy party type temporary pondok in section 17 as well.

    You are right. While the opposition is focusing on politics, Najib is quietly putting out the feel good factors. He may stumble at the beginning but as it get closer to the next election he will push out more. He had already said it recently as – it is important for the people to feel good than to worry about deficit account.

    The issue about corruption is that people dont mind if corruption create jobs. It is corruption that do not create job that is a concern. BN was very good for the this type until Badawi came on the scene. I think Najib is moving back to the first type.

    Like

  3. sammy
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 13:44:39

    Since you live in ss2, one day can go for curry mee (that sells ut by 9.30am) in the morning at the coffee shop at the end of Kayu Nasi kandar.

    Wonder what the pondok is for as I can see that food is delivered to there during puasa month from Kayu. Also the other pondok is for house wives to rest while waiting for the bus.

    Like

  4. frank
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 13:49:07

    The tsunami here Dr provides is looking like more of the beak of a falcon which targets at the house of worms, snakes and centipedes.

    Since corruption, abuse of powers and arrogance have probably become old issues and no issue to the Joe-public, as generally they have been numbed to it! PR allies should not only prove themselves the falcon which can beak out the worms and snakes and centipedes in the can, but also to get down to the ground to serve all the Joesixpacks effectively their routine needs!

    Do not harp too much on the perception war but the creation of feel good factors through their faithful ground work services to the apolitical hoi-pollois, whom they constituted big quantum of votes, and will be more a pragmatic strategy to counteract with the well known corrupted government!

    To spin on the perception war, PR somehow is underhanded by the coffer holder who can spend our hard earned monies to endeavor prop up their image —

    (Malaysian Insider), Friday:-

    ““Apart from Apco, the ministry and government agencies also appoint other local and international firms, for short and long term to provide communication services,” said KTK.

    “Because the expenses for this service depend on the implementation of the programmes and communication projects planned from time to time according to needs, the total cost cannot be determined for the time being.”

    The Malaysian Insider had reported in July that Apco was also tasked with promoting Najib’s image for his first 100 days in office and later to boost the administration’s standing worldwide.

    Najib is not the first prime minister, however, to use expensive foreign help to boost his image and that of his administration.

    Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi also used a foreign-based public relations firm to help project a positive image of himself as a progressive Muslim leader, and Malaysia as a modern Muslim nation.

    The Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad administration had used disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff.”

    So, back to you PR, the ball is at your leg!….

    Like

  5. KB
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 14:29:31

    The problem for the BN govt is that bringing down the cost of living for the ordinary wage earner is beyond them. Corruption increases the cost of living as everything is passed to the man in the street in the end.

    Crime is also getting worse – not much can be done about this either with the police putting priority on political oppression.

    Like

  6. foo
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 14:48:21

    Doc,
    A few sweets and our Ali, Ah Kow and Mutu are a happy lot. Majority of M’sians are still in the rural areas and only have basic education. Critical and long term thinking are dismally lacking in the general public. Bread and Butter issues still top priority. Corruption has become a malaysian way of life and it is too deep seated in our psyche. It would take a few generations and a great leader who is smart, honest,capable,dynamic and altruistic ,e.g. LKY in the little red dot down south, to create a corruption free environment.

    We can only pray and hope Tsunami 13 will happen. It is to BN’s advantage that the rakyat remains uninformed, apathetic and affix to B & B issues than about politics or corruption. It is easier to solve economic issues or rather they wait for world’s economy to improve by itselve. Rakyat with full stomaches rarely complain or vote out the ruling party. The NGOs, opposition parties and such can protest and demonstrate all they want about BN’s abuses ,injustices corruption and mismanagement but nothing beats money in the wallet and jobs to go to for the rakyat.

    It’s a tough call,whether PR can take over in GE13. I think if the economy improves BN will be stronger. If the economy remains sluggish then it’s still 50-50. It could be a change of government or super strong opposition with PR as state governemnts in all except Pahang, Johor, Sabah and Sarawak.

    On the fancy party temporary tents used as police beats , will they still be around when the crime rate comes down by 20% ?
    Or are they good only until BN wins the next GE?. Looks like a quick fix or “Handiplas” solution to crime prevention. Why not permenant police beats at crime hotspots. Why the cops like to walk or patrol in large groups of 5 or more? What are they afraid of? Can’t they patrol in pairs since they are armed? The police need to better manage their human resources. A waste of funds on Tourist police, FRU, polis hutan, police used as bodyguards (UTK) and traffic cops as outriders to the thousands of VIPs and V VIPs. Why can’t they decentralize with each township or housing estate with it’s fully functioning balai?.
    Cheers

    Like

  7. Richard Loh
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 14:50:47

    When the economy is on the downturn, its natural that people are more concern about it. When the economy is good, people have less worry and have more time to think about other things such as politics, educations, corruptions and performances of the government.

    Like

  8. frank
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 14:59:19

    One day, when i was waiting for my family to finish shopping outside one hypermarket at Farlim, I saw a five-member team police constables set up a make shift office under a big umbrella at the frontage car park of the hypermarket.

    While puffing away with my Winston near to them, a lady came approach the corporal and complained about her helmet was stolen, which she latched it to the motorbike she parked within the parking lots nearby. She was so annoyed because without the helmet, the son and her could not go back home with the bundle of foodstuffs she had bought.

    You know how the fierce looking Corporal answer, right in front of me?! —-“Halo Cik, takkan u mahu police sini jaga u punya helmet?” And he with the big belly just sat there like mountain!

    Is this the kind of feel good factor they intend to provide?! To me, it’s a hoax and a very cheap one!

    We the tax-payers are virtually paying good money for these cheap stuffs and ‘services’!

    If they can’t be a scare-crow for the thieves, can they be any deterrence to the robbers?! What are they good for, the vases in blue???!

    Like

  9. Meng
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 15:44:14

    The main focus is still on the economic aspect ..bread and butter issue, financially stable for a decent living. All would want to feel good and be satisfied with the wealth acquired.

    It is normal in human nature, when they have acquired this level of stability , their perception changes towards wanting a secured environment to protect their acquired wealth. Their attention are diverted towards those 19%..ie those in the middle of merdeka survey which are the social aspect of life. This is where good governance is important. Which ever party can provide and eliminate these social ills, they will come out the winner which inturn leads to political stability.

    When the economic,social and political stability have been achieved, corruption, abuse of power arrogance will be destroyed.

    Like

  10. Meng
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 16:03:36

    Frank

    It’s an indication that our blues are not tutored in human relation. The manner the policeman answered the woman is definetly uncalled for and giving rise to hatred against the police. It’s a show of authority, arrogance and badly brought up. This is where we loose out to the Singaporean police.

    When I was in Vivo city Singapore, a group of six young boys were behaving badly and rowdy.. nuisance to others. Two policeman approached them ” Excuse me, you are causing unnecessary problems to others, can I have your IC”

    There was no rude words..etc and all in a civilised manner. How not to respect Singapore police???

    Like

  11. A true Malaysian
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 17:36:07

    I am not sure how “merdeka” is this Merdeka Center conducted this survey as the last round of survey regarding popularity votes of PM seems questionable to me when one compares with the sentiments of readers we read in virtual world. But I do hope they are “merdeka” in carrying these survey though I am still have some reservations about this in the current set-up of this nation.

    Putting aside my reservations, 1% of correspondences concern about corruption is indeed very low in any standard, and if this is reflection of the actual sentiments, then tsunami 13 will not happen, and we will be back to square one. Then Malaysia will never achieve developed status as long as Umno is still in power. Umno will never changed unless this whole set of leaders, who were ‘trained’ or ‘moulded’ during TDM era is no more in Umno main stream politics.

    Pakatan Rakyat needs to strategise themselves to take care of this “bread and butter” issues, taking care by grassroots party members, and educate the public about the cancerous effects of corruption as a whole as to how this has great impact on “bread and butter” issues, by its national leaders, instead of just revealing corruption practices of those in power without explaining what are the effects.

    If no serious effort is taken to disseminate the correct information and corruption becomes part and parcel of our lives, then, Malaysia will sooner become another Indonesia or worse still, Zimbabwee.

    That is the reason why we need to continue to give moral supports to Pakatan Rakyat to win over fight over corruption. Whether the next tsunami 13 can happen or not will depend very much on this fight.

    Like

  12. kittykat46
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 17:46:31

    The economic difficulties faced by ordinary working people is exactly this government’s Achiles heel.
    At a time when most people are having to tighten their belts, and tighten again, the government is visibly wasting a heck of a lot of money. And I haven’t even started on the corruption bit.

    This Isn’t a government of the people, for the people, and Najib , the elitist, is the last person to lead the government to that level of connection with the common people.

    Like

  13. frank
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 17:49:29

    Meng,

    Agreed. I had the same encounter with the Sing police at the budget flight airport and saw the policemen and the policewomen there were so well disciplined and friendly in helping the foreigners. I just felt very safe with them around knowing they are the guardian angels.

    Not like at our Penang airport, the policemen are standing there like statues. Yet they are only interested to ‘help’ those errant motorists outside the arriving hall waiting for friends or next of kins to fetch them up! Such a distinctive difference!

    Our police here mostly VIP friendly and rakyat unfriendly. Only if they could change, the rakyat will give them more respects. Our PM also can save on our behalf the hundreds of millions to employ the so-called International spin doctors to propagate for good image and reputation isn’t it?

    Do you think that Apco Worldwide expert can help to undermine the many scandalous and corrupted issues occurred throughout the many years had past, with their spin mechanics?!

    Like

  14. klm
    Oct 23, 2009 @ 19:46:42

    Hahaha! If you been through a corporate re-engineering attempt you would have heard of the elephant and the butterfly story.

    Once upon a time, an elephant fell in love with a butterfly. Since they are not of the same kind, they cannot be together. So they went to see a wise owl (in corporate re-engineering he is called a consultant. In a political remake he will be an APCO consultant).

    So, the elephant and butterfly asked the wise owl. “Oh, wise owl, how can we be together.” The owl replied “Easy. Just turn yourself into a butterfly.” So, the elephant asked the wise owl. “oh wise owl, how do I that”. The wise owl replied ” That is execution. The strategy is mine but the execution is yours.”

    That is what consultant do. The strategy is theirs but the execution is Najib.

    Like

  15. hugo
    Oct 24, 2009 @ 23:59:07

    Late last year, a colleague of mine was injured from snatch theft crime right outside the SS2 Balai Polis main gate at 1pm on a weekday!
    Sorry, those pondoks are not making us feel any safer. Drug addicts will still have to cari makan. If you know the no of crimes that have occurred within 100m of the station, its abosolutely shocking! Crime is still rampant in SS1,2,3 areas and it is getting worst. You get robbers targeting visitors/guest who are ringing door bells waiting outside the gates nowadays! There are more private security guards engaged in these areas recently and its a cost the residents shouldn’t have to bear. Btw I have been a resident in SS1 for 39 years. I wont be voting the incumbent govt for sure unless there comes a time when the need for a private security guards is no longer there (probably will never happen!).

    Like

  16. KB
    Oct 25, 2009 @ 14:20:28

    The Merdeka survey looks like a piece of crap. 1% worried about corruption and 4% worried about crime. Is this the sentiment on the ground by any measure?

    1% worried about corruption is just not creditable in our society with good literacy rates and education level. Even in an African country with poor literacy I would expect the % to be more.

    If only 4% are worried about crime why are we seeing so many gated communities coming up?

    The Merdeka survey should be taken with a truck load of salt!

    Like

  17. Morning Dew
    Oct 26, 2009 @ 16:31:52

    Malaysian demography is not uniform. Bread and butter issues in the city and suburban areas are different from those in the rural areas. The rural folks in malaysia are quite a fortunate lot in that they are able to feed off the land quite easily. Like one blogger noted when he visited the kampung folks ; they may not have a lot of cash but they do eat very well. While the world economic system may collapse this people will not be very much affected. When I visited myanmar many years ago I also made such observation of the myanmar folks. While they hardly have any thriving economy to talk about many folks, particularly the rural areas, eat very well.

    Malaysia is aspiring to a high income nation but the question that sprang to mind was what used is such accolades when the vast majority of the rakyat could not afford decent housing or 3 square meals a day ? High income is a very bad measure of the health of the nation. The wide income gap particularly amongst the malays population is like a ticking time bomb.

    Like

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