Just 3 months ago, I wrote that BN is likely to lose the Federal government come next election, if the sentiments present then are carried forward to the next election, unless PR does something to shoot themselves in the foot.
PR did just that. The infighting- intra and inter component parties in PR – has been played up by the mainstream media, and people who have voted PR are starting to doubt whether PR could provide a stable government if they come into power.
Even RPK has voiced out and warned PR that people’s support should not be taken for granted. If people got fed up, and many are starting to have this fed up feeling, then PR would not only unable to win the next election, but would face the prospect of implosion..
Yesterday, Malaysiakini in an article quoted this:
Barisan Nasional would fare better than the last general election if the 13th general election is held today, according to Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian.
He said BN may also regain its two-thirds in the 222-seat lower house of Parliament, with rival block Pakatan Rakyat winning about 50 to 60 seats………….
He said Indians approval rating for BN had leapt from poor 35 to 45 percent during March last year to about 55 percent today.
Approval rating for the BN among Malays, said Ibrahim had also shot up from 53 percent on polling day in March 2008 to 57 percent now.
However, he said the Chinese community approval rating to BN had remained unchanged at 35 to 40 percent for the past 20 months.
While I agree that there is some swing of support back to BN, when I talked to my friends and some of my patients, and that BN’s fortune is on the rise again after they hit the lowest point after the power grab in Perak early this year, I think the situation is still very fluid, and much will depend on how PR’s people conduct themselves in the next 2 years. If they continue to shoot their own feet, or the feet of their friends, what is predicted by Merdeka Centre might just take place.
I personally feel that the battle will be decided by the new voters. Look at the following figure which was drawn by myself using data from the internet
There will be an increase of 2 million new voters eligible to votes come 13th GE.
How they vote will really decide who is going to occupy Putrajaya after the next election.
Whoever wins the hearts of this group will be certain of winning the popular votes..
By the way, at the Federal level, there will not be any new delineation of seats, since to do so would require 2/3 support from the MPs..