The battle for Putrajaya

Just 3 months ago, I wrote that BN is likely to lose the Federal government come next election, if the sentiments present then are carried forward to the next election, unless PR does something to shoot themselves in the foot.

PR did just that. The infighting- intra and inter component parties in PR – has been played up by the mainstream media, and people who have voted PR are starting to doubt whether PR could provide a stable government if they come into power.

Even RPK has voiced out and warned PR that people’s support should not be taken for granted. If people got fed up, and many are starting to have this fed up feeling, then PR would not only unable to win the next election, but would face the prospect of implosion..

Yesterday, Malaysiakini in an article quoted this:

Barisan Nasional would fare better than the last general election if the 13th general election is held today, according to Merdeka Centre director Ibrahim Suffian.

He said BN may also regain its two-thirds in the 222-seat lower house of Parliament, with rival block Pakatan Rakyat winning about 50 to 60 seats………….

He said Indians approval rating for BN had leapt from poor 35 to 45 percent during March last year to about 55 percent today.

Approval rating for the BN among Malays, said Ibrahim had also shot up from 53 percent on polling day in March 2008 to 57 percent now.

However, he said the Chinese community approval rating to BN had remained unchanged at 35 to 40 percent for the past 20 months.

While I agree that there is some swing of  support back to BN, when I talked to my friends and some of my patients,  and that BN’s fortune is on the rise again after they hit the lowest point after the power grab in Perak early this year, I think the situation is still very fluid, and much will depend on how PR’s people conduct themselves in the next 2 years. If they continue to shoot their own feet, or the feet of their friends, what is predicted by Merdeka Centre might just take place.

I personally feel that the battle will be decided by the new voters. Look at the following figure which was drawn by myself  using data from the internet

new voters 

There will be an increase of 2 million new voters eligible to votes come 13th GE.

How they vote will really decide who is going to occupy Putrajaya after the next election.

Whoever wins the hearts of this group will be certain of winning the popular votes..

By the way, at the Federal level, there will not be any new delineation of seats, since to do so would require 2/3 support from the MPs..

16 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. klm
    Nov 16, 2009 @ 19:05:11

    Happy days are here again. Another by-election in Kedah. Another UMNO seat. Now, we know who is going to Putra Jaya.

    Like

  2. pilocarpine
    Nov 16, 2009 @ 21:02:25

    double U-turn… difficult…

    Like

  3. disgusted
    Nov 16, 2009 @ 22:32:10

    I am doubtful of the survey. I know Ibrahim personally. Perhaps, there is a swing back from the Indians but the 80% of Chinese support is still there. Whatever, the bank of votes are still in Sabah and Sarawak. Hence, I am doubtful, Pakatan can rule Putrajaya unless another miracle happens.

    I don’t see Pakatan riding the waves to victory as yet. Najib will fight tooth and nail to defend. What’s more the BN has the support of EC and the next redelineation will definitely makes Pakatan winning Putrajaya more difficult.

    I hope I am all wrong.

    Like

  4. cilipadi
    Nov 16, 2009 @ 22:55:00

    Any survey, if done by a Malaysian body, are doubtful even if the findings are in favour of your favour.

    Cilipadi’s way, don’t ever read these surveys. Look at who is more MORALLY CLEAN.

    If Malaysians don’t look the Cilipadi’s way, blame yourselves them. Malaysian Boleh anyway.

    Sufian makan cili, Merdeka rasa pedas

    Like

  5. KB
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 11:36:08

    What is sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander. Can BN stop the stream of scandals, expose, corruption, police brutality, judicial abuse, MACC shenanigans and racism up to the next election?

    Will more time see PKFZ thieves (the big ones, not the ikan bilis) punished or MACC killers hauled to court?

    Will the years leading to the 13th G.E. see real substance behind 1Malaysia or just an empty slogan?

    Time is double edged sword. What is the chance of BN making real reforms compared to PR strengthening the coalition? The former is almost nil while the latter is a possibility.

    In the end, it comes down to who is the lesser devil to the electorate. BN or PR?

    Like

  6. Lai Kee Kong
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 18:02:40

    PR will have to do better than a hodge podge political parties getting together for an election. GE12 was an eyes wide shut election, whoever is against the BN gets the vote. A commited coalition with clear goals will be expected come GE13. Unless each partner makes the sacrifice needed, this house of cards will fall by itself. The pushing and shoving is obly beginning. Power really do corrupts.

    Like

  7. CYC
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 19:07:08

    Yes, the youth will be center of the battle come GE13. It is crystal clear unless the political parties think tank has another justified argument.

    BN may feel good with the recent Bagan Pinang by election result and some new opinion poll results which pointed to their favours. However, I sill think their worst enemy is the worsening economy of the nation even though most economic analysts are so encouraged by some positive indices and statistic which all showing sign of recovery. Don’t forget that though a recovery may be arriving soon but are we able to climb back to the level before the fall took place judging on the various negative signs on vital factors such as corruption, bad governance, soaring crime rate, too much of government led expansion policies, deteriorating education standard etc. All these will drag down investment, and economy will suffer in the long run.

    PM may paint a rosy picture to fish for votes. This is nothing new in Malaysia. For those who have the opportunity to read through some Draf Rancangan Tempatan which outline the future planning of Town council, you will discover that even a district like Kuala Selangor is almost similar to Switzerland in year 2020. In a nutshell, we all will live in a country with superb infrastructure and amenities. Its heaven actually.

    PR will not transform to be an angel even it win GE13. Be prepare to accept a not so competent or rather shaky/rocky govt similar to the present PR state govt in Selangor or Penang. But at least they is some changes which may not make u rich and happy but it creates hope. At the same time we also can hope for changes to take place in BN itself then.

    Putrajaya awaits those who stand together with all the rakyats.

    Like

  8. disgusted
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 20:56:40

    Ha, ha Cilipadi, good to hear from you….the golden silence.

    Yes, morality surpasses pragmatism and expediency in everything including politics. No escape….like biting into a cilipadi, the pedas feel.

    You are right.

    Like

  9. disgusted
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 21:01:41

    oh Cilipdai,

    2009 will close with a big bang! No point disclosing it now, lose the excitement…time will tell.

    Like

  10. cilipadi
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 22:14:33

    The Bala is back to kick the “Ball”. That could be the Bing Bang.

    I am sure Bala likes cilipadi, not sure about the “Ball”.

    Bala eat cili, Ball feels hot

    Like

  11. Atila
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 23:04:47

    Dr. Hsu,

    no matter who rules Putrajaya, we rakyat must be watch cat/dog, theres no complacency in this era of politics.

    dont worry too much ok.

    Like

  12. Atila
    Nov 17, 2009 @ 23:19:10

    Dr. Hsu

    most importantly, as rakyat we do not want the new world order to dictate us via local coaliation of this country. tq.

    Like

  13. clearwater
    Nov 18, 2009 @ 09:21:34

    Going by numbers, potential young voters of nearly 6 million in GE13 can make or break a government. However, a number of caveats remain with regard to this group
    ..how many will register as voters
    ..where will they register to vote
    ..will they even vote come GE13 (sorry for those who are then overseas)
    ..will they vote intelligently and independent of their elders political beliefs

    The young are largely politically apathetic and not a cohesive voting bloc. The culture of political or social activism is not ingrained in our youth. Their priorities are elsewhere and often, when you see Malaysia’s sad state of affairs, you can understand the reasons why. I think they may not play that significant a role, all things considered, in GE13 unless there is a sea change in their current outlook.

    Like

  14. VOTER OBSERVER
    Nov 24, 2009 @ 08:59:28

    Yes, GE 12 th election PR wins big but since then they have not done better than BN. PR still acting as opposition in their own backyard. Still playing the same game grumbling, opposing and blaming rather than governing and planning. BN under NAJIB begining to learn their mistakes whereas PR are still daydreaming.

    Like

  15. cilipadi
    Nov 24, 2009 @ 14:41:32

    Who is who is dreaming, I, an outsider, know best.

    Not all mistake can be cleansed N, ……… we all know except someone here,

    siapa makan cili, day dreamer rasa pedas

    Like

  16. VOTER OBSERVER
    Nov 25, 2009 @ 12:19:10

    When the cili is too hot, whatever is right is always wrong and whatever is wrong will always be wrong.

    Like

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