Is Gerakan losing the Batu Seat?

In October 2009, I wrote an article titled ” will there be an realignment of forces?” which was picked up in the breaking news in MalaysianInsider.

I started the article with the infighting of MCA and from there I warned about the component parties will be marginalised by UMNO.

Now that Batu BN chairmanship, traditionally Gerakan, has been taken away from Gerakan, i think it is time that I post part of that article here again.

For those who wish to read the whole article , pls click here.

“……………I see the chances of realignment of political forces much greater with this uncertainties in MCA.

MIC has already been marginalised by UMNO . In fact , UMNO has begun to bypass MIC and  go straight to the Indian masses through an off shoot of Hindraff, Makkal Sathi party.

A drowning man will grasp at straw, so to speak.    So there is nothing to prevent UMNO to bypass MCA and Gerakan and go direct to the non Malay voters, through NGOs like Hua ZHongs and other organisations.
If I am UMNO, I will even attempt to talk to DAP. If  DAP can cooperate with PAS, there is no reason not to cooperate with a more moderate and more democratic UMNO.

These component parties must be aware that they may be sacrificed at the last minute , maybe just before the next election is due.

If one month before the next election, UMNO tells MCA that  in view its weak position, BN is taking away some of the seats previously allocated to MCA, a weakened MCA would not be able to fight back and would have to accede to this demand like what PPP had gone through not too long ago.

Similarly, the same  thing can happen to Gerakan just before the next GE, , and what if UMNO just gives 2 or 3 seats to Gerakan instead of  the traditional 12 seats allocated ?

What can Gerakan do ?  It would be too late by then to opt out of BN.  People would view it as opportunistic and it cannot hope to survive.

Discontent voices from UMNO divisions are already being heard at the recent Janda Baik brain storming.. If survey continues to show that component parties cannot help UMNo gain votes, why should UMNO stick to these parties?

It is ironic that component parties became weak because of its association with UMNO, and now this association is being reconsidered because component parties are weak…”

I did warn the top leaders about this happening and urged them that it was still not too late to move out before Gerakan gets stripped of its seats.. But as usual, my voice has fallen on deaf ears, and now that Batu BN chairmanship is taken away, what will be next , I wonder?

What happened to this party which has so much to offer in having one of the best ideologies of advocating a “fair and equitable society” and adopting a nonracial appraoch to issues?

37 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. Kongkor
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 17:35:36

    Blame it on Koh Tsu Koon, then get the hell out of Gerakan, Doc.

    Like

  2. CYC
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 17:39:25

    It will hasten the “tah pow” process of Gerakan. Bungkus like the RM1.00 per pack nasi lemak.

    KTK prefer to be fired rather than resign, so be it.

    Forget about the party ideologies when it is only meant for display without physical compliance.

    Next in line will be MCA, so it is immaterial who become the president later. After all it is only serves as a display item.

    Like

  3. klm
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 18:09:52

    It is good that Gerakan loses the Batu seat. It will show how impotent KTK and Gerakan is. Nothing like a stink bomb blowing up in front of Gerakan’s leadership to wake them up from their narcosis.

    Lim Keng Yaik is right. KTK is useless.

    Like

  4. petestop
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 19:38:55

    I think it is still not too late.

    There is still healthy respect amongst the rakyat for Gerakan’s struggle. It is one of the more acceptable component party in BN, even before 308.

    I would believe most people voted against Gerakan because of UMNO, and UMNO have but proven that they could’nt care less about Gerakan. They willing to work with PAS even just to stay in power, like in Selangor.

    PAS have proven that they are more middle-grounded by comparison, especially with their strong cooperation with DAP in Perak, in the face of fierce attack from UMNO, judiciary, government institution and whatnots.

    So, it is time for Gerakan to examine their own conscience and sensibility. You can see for yourself, who holds the middle ground and who is the extremist.

    Like

  5. Meng
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 21:40:13

    MCA and Gerakan can also play the same game. If they are being marginalised, they can also go back to the ppl and tell them to vote the opposition. …Provided they have balls!!! The NGOs can be made to look like traitors selling the Chinese interest.!!!

    One month before the GE, Gerakan and MCA can play havoc???? So lets hope more seats be taken away by umno…

    Like

  6. Li Li Fa
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 21:48:48

    To leave BN or not to leave, that is the question, which Gerakan has to decide and decide fast.
    Otherwise time will then decide whether this ‘advocator of a fair and just society’ will be side-lined or kicked out eventually.

    Some say , in politics, there are no true friends nor permanent enemies. Can principles withstand a torturous political journey, often engulfed in storms of power struggle and tsunamis of change?

    Where will Gerakan go when it leaves BN? Will they join forces with the middle ground and not be blown into extremism?

    A time of consolidation, sincere rationalization , wishful thinking and perhaps peeping into the crystal ball awaits us.

    Like

  7. A true Malaysian
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 22:19:32

    Stiil talking about Gelakan? I thought it is DEAD?

    Amno is doing Malaysia a favour for burying Gelakan alive, if Gelakan is still not DEAD.

    Come on, a corpse is a corpse. It is better to be buried in Batu.

    Like

  8. Ken
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 23:05:11

    “What happened to this party which has so much to offer in having one of the best ideologies of advocating a “fair and equitable society” and adopting a nonracial approach to issues?”

    Not any more, Dr. Hsu. Not any more. The Gerakan you refer to is long gone and only a pale shadow of its old self exist now.

    Like

  9. Ken
    Mar 04, 2010 @ 23:14:05

    “Only in today’s Sin Chew Daily, the Gerakan youth leader Lim Si Ping said that this is the best time for Gerakan to pull out of Barisan Nasional and that it is only by leaving Barisan that Gerakan can restore its dignity.” – LimKitSiang’s blog.

    Is this true, Dr. Hsu? Has Gerakan found its marbles?

    http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2010/03/04/najib-cannot-find-real-comfort-in-pkr

    Like

  10. Anak Malaysia
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 09:58:54

    Koh Tsu Koon = Self Interest = Back Door MP = Useless

    Koh Tsu Koon + Lim Shi Ping = Bring Gerakan to Holand

    Forget about the party ideologies when it is only meant for display without physical compliance.

    Like

  11. klm
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 11:26:03

    Ken. I think this is a gambit to take down Koh Tsu Koon. Lim Keng Yaik had fired the opening shot. I suspect there will be more.

    Like

  12. CYC
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 12:22:15

    Lim Si Pin speaks out of frustration that his seat is gone and he losses his platform to become a “greater man”, not because he sincerely believe struggle within BN is bad choice.

    Petestop, highly qualified people always think there are the smartest and don’t hope they will rationalize the issue in hand. They would rather embark on a self justifying route to convince others that the dead ideologies still marketable even though 4/5 of its members can’t reconcile their ideologies with real actions. Perhaps KTK is the only person who has full grasp of their ideologies and act in consistent with it using his own PhD justification.

    Vote for social democrats.

    Like

  13. Ken
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 12:30:07

    klm, if this is a gambit to take down Koh Tsu Koon it is a strange one. The idea may snowball and be unstoppable. Why would the old goat want KTK down anyway? His son is not ready yet.

    Like

  14. CL
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 12:57:32

    Dear Doc,

    Gerakan weak because of UMNO & UMNO don’t NEED a weak partner…

    Ha ha ha….there is tears in my eyes…

    No, i m not laughing at you doc but this is exactly what amused me that why you still have faith in Gerakan ?? This is proof of current Gerakan driver’s leadership capability & capacity…

    I’m here only bcos i enjoy your insight & reasoning…never about Gerakan…& you have WASTE a lot of breath on this “ikan masin”…

    Start to LEAD doc…& do lead with fairness, passion & wisdom …you may be the next PIC of Kementerian Kesihatan (I really wish this could happen, you definitely have my blessing)…

    Thank you.

    CL

    Like

  15. klm
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 14:59:09

    Ken. The finance of Gerakan is still in LKY’s hand. He wont life forever. His son being not ready is no relevant. Control must still remain in the family. Now is a good time to take down KTK, before the next election.

    Like

  16. Meng
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 15:35:53

    “”If DAP can cooperate with PAS, there is no reason not to cooperate with a more moderate and more democratic UMNO.””

    I do not think this is possible!! When PAS talk to umno there were CS in DAP and Keadilan. If DAP talks to umno, what will PAS and Keadilan think. Thery will loose faith in DAP..may destroy PR????

    Like

  17. a gerakan observer
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 16:07:40

    KTK was slated to fight in Batu, and chances are he would lose.

    SO now UMNO may have a candidate for Batu, KTK would be saved and can continue as Senator and minister.

    As for LSP , he can always go back to Bruas, his father’s strong hold where the loss was minimal the last election.

    I think doc would be proven right that Gerakan would be given less seats in the next GE than before. It is a tame cat, so why worry about Gerakan? Just take their seats and give to some others like Perkasa.

    PaK Lah was decent and the last fight was quite clean. The next fight would see money and all sorts of things being used.

    God bless this land.

    Like

  18. petestop
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 16:12:51

    CL, you summarise it the best

    “Gerakan weak because of UMNO & UMNO don’t NEED a weak partner…”

    It is basically a LOSE-LOSE situation for Gerakan and I wonder why they still can’t see it.

    Need to LOSE-LOSE again in next election to realise ?

    They can always go out and be the 3rd force like SAPP, at least with dignity intact.

    Like

  19. klm
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 16:42:44

    As long as KTK is there in Gerakan, it is easy to deal with it. Juts make him a minister, give him a big luxurious office, an official car with driver and police escort. Make him feel big. He will kiss your bottom.

    Like

  20. ahoo
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 16:48:16

    It is never too late to be what you could have been, Dr Hsu. Maybe you could identify a great leader within your party if you still believe that it can be save.

    Imperfect action is better than perfect inaction ! Just do it now with your group of common comrades to push the leadership to acknowledge that it is now or it will be too late. There is no perfect timing in life. Nothing will be done at all if a man waited until he could do it so well that no one could find fault with it. (Cardinal Newman).

    It is such a pain to see a once great party in doldrums just because of incapable leaders who are told to compromise and be directionless.

    Like

  21. Ken
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 20:14:27

    I fully expect Umno to slash the seat allocation for MCA, MIC and Gerakan in the next election. The reason will be that they have lost influence so Umno must reach out directly to the minorities.

    In any case most of these lapdog parties win in Malay majority areas. After GE12, Lim Keng Yaik was heard complaining that Umno did not give Gerakan enough Malay majority seats to contest.

    Will there be any safe seat for Gerakan? I don’t think so. The next G.E. may see Gerakan wiped out and become Gelakan.

    Will there be anything for LKY to hand over to his son? Time will tell.

    Like

  22. ong
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 20:55:19

    “DAP cooperate with a more moderate and more democratic UMNO”? Surely you jest, Dr. Hsu! When you say “more” moderate and “more” democratic, you are implying that UMNO is already moderate and democratic. I am surprised that you, of all people believe that UMNO is already moderate and democratic.

    On the question of DAP cooperating with UMNO, my opinion is that perhaps there may be hope of this happening after Lim Kit Siang and Karpal Singh are dead and gone, not before.

    PAS has agreed to put on hold their Islamic State agenda. Has UMNO agreed to put on hold their Ketuanan Melayu agenda? On the contrary they are pursuing it with ever increasing aggression. And I am not making such claim based on hearsay, rumours or internet stories but on direct personal experience the last 30 odd years. I worked many years as a government servant and had seen and experienced the effects of the Ketuanan Melayu agenda. After I resigned, my business and profession still requires me to deal with government departments and until today the effects of the Ketuanan Melayu agenda is still a part of my business and professional life. And I assure you they are not pleasant experiences.

    UMNO and Najib go around hawking their 1MALAYSIA scam. At the same time we see how fast Ibrahim Ali’s PERKASA was born and issued with a ‘MyCard’ (recognition) and a ‘diplomatic passport’ (immunity). I am sure you know how useful is the immunity that comes with a diplomatic passport. Is there anyone out there who believe that PERKASA is not an UMNO creation? Is this a sign of a democratic and moderate UMNO?

    When you mentioned “realignment of political forces” in respect of Gerakan, my understanding is that Gerakan should leave BN and join the PR coalition. If I am correct in this understanding then my opinion is that given the present political maturity of voters, Gerakan can only be a liability to the PR coalition. Looking at the present Gerakan leadership I don’t see anyone outstanding, but I can see plenty of undesirable baggage being carried. Only one solution for those still wishing to serve through political involvement. Quit and join one of the PR member parties.

    Like

  23. Dr Hsu
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 22:28:49

    ong
    there are at least 3 factions in UMNO now, if you care to observe.

    The No. 2 is indeed gaining , and perkasa is the creation of the old horse (with all the more right wing fellows) behind.

    Najib’s position is not so secure and he may have to play to the gallery in order not to be overthrown.. More forces are at play now, even MI, a creation of Pak Lah and his SIL, is now more vocal and seen to be advocating a more moderate stand. The outcome of the struggle in this party has a very big effect on Malaysia. All indications are, some Malays votes are returning because of the right wing politics.

    When I say realignment, I mean that the more moderateforces, advocating middle ground and multiracial politics , wouls slowly band together, while the more extreme right wingers of UMNO, PAS and PKR will team up together. A lot depends on how the east Malysians play their cards.

    Like

  24. disgusted
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 22:30:49

    Gerakan members and leaders maybe groaning and moaning about KSK but the drama award goes to MCA now with the latest twist and turn, dragging the image to tatters which will not recover to save its skin at the next general elections.

    MCA members and leaders seem to prefer action of overthrowing their leaders compared to Gerakan.

    I don’t know, I might be wrong, but Gerakan leaders unhappy but no action. Can anybody enlighten me?

    Like

  25. Ken
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 22:34:18

    After 12th G.E. Umno faced a dilemma – to ratchet up their racism to increase their Malay vote share or win back the non-Malay vote.

    By making use of Perkasa to deliver racial poison to the Malays (publishing permit already approved) and 1Malaysia campaign to fool Chinese and Indians, Umno is trying to have its cake and eat it too.

    Will non-Malays be fooled by Najib’s empty 1Malaysia while the racism is outsourced to Perkasa? Let’s not be fooled by Umno’s audacity to have their cake and eat it too.

    Like

  26. Dr Hsu
    Mar 05, 2010 @ 22:44:36

    monk, the main reason why Gerakan people cannot organise a nationwide revolt is mainly lack of resources. Unlike the Money Collecting Agency, in Gerakan, every acivtivity at division level are all funded by own pockets. Money collecting agency on the other hand , is like another UMNO, with projects and kickbacks and so on, so all the warloards have plenty to spend. The DVD players have so much in resources, that he can fund people to go round the country collecting signatures. SImilarly iwth the Brutuses.

    That is the main difference. If I were to organise a national wide signature campaign, where am I going to get the funding except ffrom my own pockets . Gerakan members , apart from those holding government positions or receiving government pensions, are all volunteers , like DAP members. They have their own jobs and their own lives to care about. Whereas for UMNO and MCA , party is livelihood.

    ANother reason is lack of ambitions. People join Gerakan because of the ideology and if you dont join it for kangdao, you would not have that much of jest to cast everything aside and concentrate on politicking. It is of course a different things for the elected representatives like DUns and MPs, but Gerkan has so few of them, and all these are all men that would not rock the boat (so called presidents’ men) otherwise they would not be selected in the first place.

    SO lack of resources, and lack of ambitions are what made rebellions in this party a tame affairs. UNlike Huan, who has the unlimited resources of the Sarawak Boss behind him.

    That lies the main difference. ANd even most journalists know about that, if you care to talk to them.

    So what a person can do in Gerakan is to write emails to members trying to change their mindsets, hoping that by next party election, enough have been generated to effect a change. SOme use blogs, yours truthly is an example, but since the attacks on me the last few times , I have already not using the blog so effectively and so often to push my heretic views through , and mainly now through emails.. I have in my list about 200 emails, and whenever i send emails, I can only hope that those who receive it will forward it, for a cascading effects.

    Like

  27. Party Member
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 09:21:47

    Sdr: I think you should determine the person who has agreed to “give up” the Batu BN chairmanship to UMNO. I just want to say that this “Sdr T” is our party’s defector. He betters quit our party as soon as possible. Who is Sdr T? The defector leader of Party Gerakan.

    Like

  28. Party Member
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 09:36:19

    Frankly to say, KTK is under control by the Defector.
    The defector has done many jobs which are without notice of KTK.

    Like

  29. Enna
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 10:16:16

    This is an excerp from a link from Malaysia kini which I agree with:

    If Marina Mahathir had truly wanted to show up the lack of press freedom … [w]hy did she not attack the blatant use of government machinery, such as KDN, and the blatant connivance of civil servants such as KDN, the police, and the Attorney-General, in stifling the voices of reason and giving free rein to the voices of hate and bigotry?

    [Instead] She’s moved the spotlight away from Umno and the government and from the gathering forces of Ketuanan Melayu and left The Star trapped in its glare, even though the paper and Guna [Star managing editor (business) P Gunasegaram] personally have been victimised by the Ketuanan Melayu mob of Perkasa — which has her father’s backing — and by KDN officials so quick to issue a show-cause letter.

    http://www.malaysiakini.com/v6/link.php?http%3A%2F%2Fhartalmsm.wordpress.com%2F2010%2F03%2F06%2Fmarina-enough-hypocrisy-already%2F

    Like

  30. cilipadi
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 10:17:19

    Poor Gerakan? or
    Gerakan poor?

    Not elected by voters, can be minister, poor?

    Sure?

    Poor Gerakan makan cili, Gerakan rich rasa pedas

    Like

  31. Jong
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 10:55:36

    Does Koh Tsu Koon care? He cares about his pocket first. He is afterall one of the highest paid backdoor ‘minister’ – rejected by the rakyat yet lucky to get a job in PM’s dept. Dare he complain? What do you expect him to do? He has to put food on the table too, remember?

    Like

  32. Dr Hsu
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 15:26:14

    Party Member

    I have no idea who you are talking about?WHo is this T fellow, and why is he a defector?

    Like

  33. Lai Kee Kong
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 19:38:08

    If Gerakan has no seat to contest in the next election, then we will have to look for seats outside the Coalition. After all what is the rationale of a political party – representation NOT shouting at the roadside. If we have no representation, we do not deserve to exist.

    Like

  34. disgusted
    Mar 06, 2010 @ 22:41:37

    Txs Dr. Makes sense but I cannot believe all Gerakan members whom some are businessmen cannot do the noble effort by funding to groom better leaders or to tilt the incumbent leadership.

    Maybe those well to do are already in the pocket of KTK?

    Like

  35. petestop
    Mar 07, 2010 @ 04:45:08

    http://www.klik4malaysia.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=638:gerakan-grassroots-in-quandary-over-batu&catid=25:latest-news&Itemid=189&lang=en

    This says it all, why Gerakan leadership failed and why Penangite booted Gerakan out.

    Gerakan leadership lacks backbone and is puppet to be directed by UMNO.

    Taking on the backdoor ministry is another BIG mistake that current leadership has done, so much so that he even more apparent owing it to UMNO now and cannot say anything even when Gerakan loses the Batu seat.

    Do you think Penangites will ever trust the running of the state to such backdoor opportunist ?

    Like

  36. james
    Mar 07, 2010 @ 14:42:22

    it is so obvious that lim keng yaik and his son, lim si pin is crying out now like a cry baby.
    His son seat in Batu is in jeorpady.

    Like

  37. racist
    Mar 07, 2010 @ 23:51:40

    MCA and Gerakan is helping DAP to become stronger in PR , so they can act like UMMO in BN.

    Like

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