In October 2009, I wrote an article titled ” will there be an realignment of forces?” which was picked up in the breaking news in MalaysianInsider.
I started the article with the infighting of MCA and from there I warned about the component parties will be marginalised by UMNO.
Now that Batu BN chairmanship, traditionally Gerakan, has been taken away from Gerakan, i think it is time that I post part of that article here again.
For those who wish to read the whole article , pls click here.
“……………I see the chances of realignment of political forces much greater with this uncertainties in MCA.
MIC has already been marginalised by UMNO . In fact , UMNO has begun to bypass MIC and go straight to the Indian masses through an off shoot of Hindraff, Makkal Sathi party.
A drowning man will grasp at straw, so to speak. So there is nothing to prevent UMNO to bypass MCA and Gerakan and go direct to the non Malay voters, through NGOs like Hua ZHongs and other organisations.
If I am UMNO, I will even attempt to talk to DAP. If DAP can cooperate with PAS, there is no reason not to cooperate with a more moderate and more democratic UMNO.
These component parties must be aware that they may be sacrificed at the last minute , maybe just before the next election is due.
If one month before the next election, UMNO tells MCA that in view its weak position, BN is taking away some of the seats previously allocated to MCA, a weakened MCA would not be able to fight back and would have to accede to this demand like what PPP had gone through not too long ago.
Similarly, the same thing can happen to Gerakan just before the next GE, , and what if UMNO just gives 2 or 3 seats to Gerakan instead of the traditional 12 seats allocated ?
What can Gerakan do ? It would be too late by then to opt out of BN. People would view it as opportunistic and it cannot hope to survive.
Discontent voices from UMNO divisions are already being heard at the recent Janda Baik brain storming.. If survey continues to show that component parties cannot help UMNo gain votes, why should UMNO stick to these parties?
It is ironic that component parties became weak because of its association with UMNO, and now this association is being reconsidered because component parties are weak…”
I did warn the top leaders about this happening and urged them that it was still not too late to move out before Gerakan gets stripped of its seats.. But as usual, my voice has fallen on deaf ears, and now that Batu BN chairmanship is taken away, what will be next , I wonder?
What happened to this party which has so much to offer in having one of the best ideologies of advocating a “fair and equitable society” and adopting a nonracial appraoch to issues?