Political scientist Dr Ong Kian Ming, a personal friend, wrote an interesting article in Malaysiakini ‘Hulu Selangor is Pakatan to lose”. (read here).
The article concluded that, pending unforseen circumstances, Pakatan is likely to win. For the sake of those who do not subscribe to Malaysiakini, I will post the whole article below in the comment section.
Kian MIng’s estimate, based on polling station returns in 2008, is that BN won 55%, 35% and 51% of the Malay, Chinese and Indian votes respectively. He argued that Pakatan won because of split voting of some Malays (voting for Bn at state level and Pakatan national level), and this together with the sizeable nonMalay support resulted in Pakatan winning the seat in 308.
I agree with his analysis. This time around, I think BN has less than 20% of Chinese support, and maybe 60% of the Malays. So if Pakatan can win 50% of the indian votes, it will win the seats.
My calculation is based on simple mathematics:
Racial breakdown of Hulu Selangor voters:
Malay 53.9% of total voters
Indian 19% and others 0.4%
Thus, if Pakatan can win 80% of Chinese, 40% of Malay and 50% of Indians votes, the calculations will be :
80% out of the 26.7% of Chinese votes = 21.36% of Total
40% of the 53.9% of Malay votes = 21.56% of Total votes
50% of the 19% Indian votes = 9.5% of Total
Thus 21.36% + 21.56% + 9.5% = 51.92%.
If the turnout is 85%, the margin will be around 2000 votes.
Unless BN can win more than 60% of Malay votes or more than 50% of Indian votes, it will not be able to win. Chinese votes are gone, and Pakatan may even win more than 80% of the votes , thus making the margin even higher.
Of course, election is very fluid and anything can happen between now and polling day. This is my rough estimate using common sense and simple calculation.