The writing is already on the wall

A foreign journalist called up and chatted with me about the Sibu by election and its impact. He also asked about whether UMNo would move more to the right and be more extreme in view of the fact that they have lost the Chinese votes, and UMNO leaders may strategise  that they have to be more extreme to win back even more  Malay voters to compensate for the loss of Chinese votes.

I said it would be foolish if they do that since to be more extreme , they would  alienate the CHinese more, and by extension, even Indian voters may be put off.

I said that the prevailing perception is that certain leaders in UMNO have outsourced their extremism to Perkasa, and the more Perkasa and the Old Horse behind make inflammatory racist remarks, the more BN would lose Chinese votes.

I also told him that even if UMNO decides to go more extreme , they have reached the limits of the Malays votes that they can get.

Looking at past elections, even at best of time, UMNO gets only about 60% or slightly more than 60% of Malay votes. Recent racist tones made by certain UMNO leaders have swung back Malay votes from 50 plus percent to slight over more than 60%, as seen in Ulu Selangor by election, and in my opinion, that is about the most they can get, even if they make more extreme remarks

I said that now the only way forward for UMNo is to really reform, to do away with racist tones and treat everyone fair and equal, to tackle the problem of bad governance, to return independence to judiciary, to enforce laws  on all law-breaking citizens irrespective of their background ( and not be seen as practising double standardS), and be more liberal in religious tolerance, i think they can swing back some Non Malays votes.

But is UMNO willing to take such ‘bitter’ steps? As for Gerakan,and MCA, there are no other ways except to push UMNO for taking such changes, and if changes fail to come, they have to leave immediately and not cling to the coat tail hoping for crumbs to fall into their hands.

Otherwise, the writing is on the wall that there is likely to be a change of government come the next election.

On another point, there is no point trying to ‘bribe’ the by election voters by showering development projects on their heads. As citizens of this country and as tax payers, the voters have every right to development and to think that their votes can be swayed by using this tactic is archaic and naive.

This last minute attempt at vote buying is futile to the more educated urban voters, and this tactic in fact alienates even more the people staying in towns and suburban areas.

13 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. CYC
    May 20, 2010 @ 16:35:12

    The writing on the wall are :

    1. Najib is not a reformist, he is recycling Mahathirism.

    2. Najib is not a liberal, he is a liar

    3. Najib is not a strategist, he is a just another warlord

    4. Perkasa is extremist, but Najib is the REAL extremist.

    5. MCA & Gerakan are not political parties, they are Beggar Cum Corrupt Alumni.

    6. CSL, don’t hold the Chinese commnunity for ransom, we are better of without MCA as our representative in govt.

    7. KTK, your half past six intelligence and “elegant silence” is not manifestation of wisdom but an idiotic fallacy.

    8. Those who don’t know what the Chinese want can pack and retire, u r either retarded or only good enough to be shoe polisher

    9. Those who expect UMNO to reform will eventually be reformed by UMNO.

    10. More than half of our Malay brothers and sisters under 40s do not want UMNO to form the next govt.

    Like

  2. JDsg
    May 20, 2010 @ 17:07:21

    As citizens of this country and as tax payers, the voters have every right to development and to think that their votes can be swayed by using this tactic is archaic and naive.

    I agree with all of your analysis except for this. Call me cynical, but this tactic of doling out pork barrel projects to local districts works and works consistently. Citizens might have the right to having development money come into their district, but that doesn’t mean that it will actually happen. The savvy politician is the one who knows how to bring those projects home and exploits that success into positive public relations for him or herself and the party. Which is why, after the US stimulus package was approved, despite vociferous Republican denunciations and votes against the package, those same Republican politicians still tried to claim credit (hypocritically) for bringing home money to their constituencies.

    Like

  3. mykantree
    May 20, 2010 @ 17:42:17

    To a certain extend I do agree with JDsg that pork-barrel works. That has been part and parcel of political electioneering not just in Malaysia alone. It is also quite common in the US.

    But the whole political, economic, social and ethnic landscapes of Malaysia has seem significant changes and shifts, especially over the last 2 decades. Malaysia today is certainly not what it was in the 80s or 90s.

    Pork barrel politics efficacy is therefore that much reduced in light of those changes and shifts. More and more Malaysians now aspire to see and want more liberal politics, more honest politics, more responsible politics. Malaysians are becoming more politically aware and can no longer be hoodwinked or force-fed with politics of earlier decades.

    Malaysians has made political progress and will continue to make progress. The writing is indeed on the wall!

    Like

  4. pilocarpine
    May 20, 2010 @ 21:43:05

    Perkaser is an invention of BeeEnd.

    which is a good invention.
    if they need more Malays vote, they tuned up Perkaser’s volume.
    if they need Chinese votes, they’ll snuff out Perkaser.. which shouldn’t hv existeed.. from the start..

    Like

  5. Li Li Fa
    May 20, 2010 @ 22:03:54

    If the by-election in Sibu is anything to go by, it has awaken a lot of people in both East and West Malaysia. This is going to resonate into the coming State election and beyond.

    Malaysians have indeed written on the wall with political maturity and discernment.

    Preachers , soothsayers and gift-bearers can come and go but the people will decide.

    Like

  6. disgusted
    May 21, 2010 @ 00:55:48

    I have said before and a 100 times. UMNO will NOT reform and known for its policy: Keeping the cake and eating it the same time.

    No, PR taking over the federal level. Well, the adage saying, over its dead body. Not easy.

    Like

  7. romerz
    May 21, 2010 @ 03:41:09

    Dear Dr Hsu,

    Forgive me for being a bit emotional tonight but I think that you should take a look at this which mainstream Malaysia is not aware of (judging by the views they received).

    http://romerz.blogspot.com/2010/05/kisah-benar-malaysia-true-stories-of.html

    My tears flowed freely when I saw these videos knowing how I had wronged them in the past by supporting UMNO vis-a-vis Gerakan through fear and complacency.

    No more, please no more! Can we gang up on KTK and you yell at him for his stupidity of not seeing the bigger picture whilst I slap him around for his lack of courage?

    Even amongst the staunchest Gerakan supporters I know (who calls him friend) tell me that Gerakan is dead without a change of leadership!

    And these are people whom he calls from time-to-time to gauge the sentiments of Penang. Only trouble is that these people are not wont to tell him in his face that his party is dead except me hence I no longer receive such calls from him as I once used to!

    Head in the sand stuff from a bloody eunuch!

    Like

  8. klm
    May 21, 2010 @ 14:28:53

    And as usual KaTaK is useless. I do not understand Gerakan members. They just talk and do nothing.

    Like

  9. CYC
    May 21, 2010 @ 16:04:20

    Engage a competent and just consultant to do a survey on what is the perception of those Chinese under 40s towards MCA & Gerakan. The result will probably strong enough to render them close shop early. If u don’t agree, try and see lah! OMG, I forget that they would probably use ISA to stop the survey at all cost.

    Dr Hsu, care to initiate a poll in this blog? This makes your job easier. They will have nothing left to argue with u.

    They can’t read what is written on the wall. They only wake up when u splash shit in their face.

    Like

  10. disgusted
    May 21, 2010 @ 18:03:33

    Many many surveys had been done silently and quietly. Some results are “kinky,” distorted and inaccurate that spoke opposite of reality. Romez is correct, the video clips spoke more truth on individuals (by the hundred thousands on hardship and living from hand to mouth) than 1,000 surveys.

    When data is grouped together, it distort or dwarf real issues. Statistics is good on indicating trends but lousy in highlighting plights.

    That’s why I scoff at electoral analysis, using past data and predicting future ones. Peoples’ mindsets change faster than the speed of lightning. I don’t know. I am not an expert and don’t intend to be one but I do believe in using the higher human consciousness like the “evolved extra terrestrials UFO inhabitants to predict the future…damn accurate.

    And more earthquakes coming, my goldfishes jumped out of the fishbowl last night! These goldfishes are damn accurate and sensitive predicting earthquakes. How I wish they can talk to me…he, he….

    Like

  11. ong
    May 22, 2010 @ 11:37:56

    “As for Gerakan,and MCA, there are no other ways except to push UMNO for taking such changes”

    Only in movies can a 50kg push a 150kg, not in real life.

    “they have to leave immediately and not cling to the coat tail hoping for crumbs to fall into their hands”

    And all this time I have been having the impression that their main motivation for still clinging on to the coattail is to actually savour the crumbs, despite suffering the indignity of public derision by their own communities. Silly me!

    Like

  12. aca
    May 22, 2010 @ 18:12:31

    romerz,
    his backdoor ministership, though a bag carrying one, means everything to him. dont expect him to stand up whats right for the country. gerakan is now a mosquito party of no ideals. KTK knows the situation and is just hanging on to enjoy the trappings that come with the position.

    let KTK stay on and Gerakan will eventually got he way of another once respected party, PPP.

    Like

  13. Ken
    May 23, 2010 @ 21:59:40

    Dear Dr. Hsu,

    Umno’s baseline Malay support is 55%. It may go up or down depending on political circumstances. These are Umno’s Malay support in the following G.E.s

    1999 – 49% (Anwar’s sodomy I)
    2004 – 59.1% (Badawi the great Malaysian hope)
    2008 – 55% (back to baseline)

    Unlike Chinese and Indians, Malay swing is very limited because there are few fence sitters among the Malays. In 2008 Indian support for BN swing down by 35% and Chinese support by 30% compared to 2004.

    The 60% Malay support which Umno can get at by-elections is not sustainable as these are BUY-elections.

    If Umno can get 60% Malay support nationwide, it’s game over for PR. How other races vote will not matter. But if Umno support decline to 50% it’s game over for BN as other races will determine the winner.

    In 1999 there was a unique chance to vote out BN but non-Malays who were still voting on racial and religious fears swung to BN.

    Will Sodomy II give us another opportunity? Let’s wait and see.

    Like

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