The Big Riddle

The hot topic, rather the Big Riddle, now is when will be the next general election. Of course, the only person who will know is the prime minister, and  even though there are rumours that GE is near, I suspect even the PM has not decided for sure when to call for the next one.

There are rumours that it will be in March next year. Of course, those who say so may be right. But I personally think it is unlikely.

To call for an election is like  fighting a major war. To mount a major offensive, even American cannot do it in a stealthy manner. There will be signs , there will be logistic preparation, there will be wikileaks malaysia-leaks.

On top of that, many of the Duns and MPs are first timers in 308, and they need to be in office for 3 years  ( till next march or April depending on when they were sworn in) in order to qualify for the minimum pension, and this group as grass root leaders and mobilisers do exert certain influence on the top leadership.

Although BN  may feel that there are some signs of pendulum swinging back to them -mainly because of PR keep shooting their own feet),  I suspect privately they are not so sure. How  accurate are those commissioned private surveys? Let me tell u something. Before 308,the major party in  Penang  thought they would again win the right to govern, based on these so-called surveys, but in the end, they were routed and up-rooted .  The main reason being that they were seen to be subservient to the Big Brother, and that their  Four heavenly kings were fighting for the prized post of CM, even before the voters had cast their votes, That was a sign not only of arrogance but also of total disregard of camaraderie and brotherhood. That gave an impression that they only cared for positions. I had then written on this issue and I had even given my feedback on KL seats and told the top leadership that the seats in KL were ‘Black” but my views was totally ignored and the party went into the fight as if they have already won.. In the end, that was the worse ever defeat they suffered.

Back to signs of next GE. There were no logistic preparation from BN as yet, and  I think this time, they wont be so arrogant as before. and probably will use the Terang by-election as well as the Sarawak State election as a litmus paper to test the voters’ sentiments.If they cannot win big in Terang, or even lose the seat, and if in Sarawak, they cannot even win two third of the state seats, then election will not be called next year. It would probably be in 2012.

Another reason was the postponement of the party elections of some of the component parties. Some of these parties have postponed their party election by 18 months, meaning that the party election will only be held in 2013. If election is to be in March or even May next year, there is just no reason to postpone these party elections since most of these elections are due only end of next year.

Of course, as heads of the component parties, many of these leaders would be happy to follow UMNO style of postponing the party elections. For those who went in through  the senate, especially those who were appointed senatorship after present PM has assumed his premiership in April last year, it means that they will have another term of senatorship since their present term expires on 2012. For their own interest, why not follow UMNo style and call for party election postponement? Another term of senatorship, and probably another few years as ministers.

Of course, the official reason will be they have to concentrate on the preparation for the GE. But if party election is held in the true spirits of democracy, and even if there are contests, there is no reason why members cannot close ranks.  The important thing is to close rank and not to witch-hunt after a contest .

Lincoln invited his political rivals into his cabinet to hold important posts after winning the presidency. Tang Tai Zong ( Lee Shi Min), after killing his brothers (his big brother Lee Jian Cheng was the anointed Crown Prince) in a coup in the Xuan Wu Men incident, he treated his brothers’ families well, and he appointed some of his brother’s capable advisers to important positions, based on merits and morality; Tang Taizong stressed a lot on merits and morality in his choice of ministers and advisers  . That was the basis of unity he enjoyed and his period of reign , the “Reign of Zhenguan”, was the most prosperous, least corrupted, and most crime free period of China.. He was regarded as one of the best, if not the best ,emperors of China.  ( I may write an article on how he ruled his country and how he managed his ministers).

Alas, here in our country, after a party election, the winner will practice ” Chop’ technique while palying tai chi at the same time. Chop chop chop, and all capable materials are chopped and thrown into the dustbins, and all these chopping done in the name of consolidation and in the name of unity. I just dont understand how to have unity when you chop chop chop those losing factions. The lucky opposing head may be appointed to a minor post, but be sure, none of his people would be appointed, so his wings are clipped and chopped.

So back to the main topic. I think the election will be in 2012, unless BN wins big in Sarawak, and the Terang election. Do you think this is possible?  I dont want to comment and  i will leave it to your judgment.  As the saying goes, the ball is round!!

 

 

11 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. Tak Tak
    Dec 29, 2010 @ 11:44:45

    Agree. BN will be nuked if GE is near. Why announce nuclear reactor knowing that everyone will oppose it?

    Like

  2. CYC
    Dec 29, 2010 @ 11:47:03

    Seems PAS is the only MATURED political party. No worry of split after party election, it certainly has character of a maturity.

    There may be few more mergers or awards of mega project before GE13. Afterall, this is how they fund their election campaign. Wait for the stock market to shoot up a bit first. Feel good factors is equally important to stock market as well as holding an election.

    Like

  3. Khlow
    Dec 30, 2010 @ 10:03:43

    You have your valid point on the prediction. As we all know, politic is just full of uncertainty. If we were to look into the current economic situation where prices were keep shooting up, certainly holding an election to BN is merely an equation of suicide pack. Perhaps, we may just wait and see as to when can the BN government successfully protray the illusion of good economic statistic in order to pumpet themselves for calling of GE.

    Like

  4. clearwater
    Dec 30, 2010 @ 11:42:58

    Your analysis on the next GE mirrors mine. BN will pick the date depending on favorable events and circumstances, and it won’t be March 2011. Most likely 2012. BN may retain Sarawak overall in the coming state election but urban areas may see a rout of its smaller component parties.

    Like

  5. klm
    Dec 31, 2010 @ 10:19:11

    SunTze said winning the next election depends on the calculation of these factors:

    Internal Factors
    ==========
    Quality of Commander
    1. BN and Pakatan have a coalition style of leadership. BN=1. Pakatan = 1
    2. Moral Law – righteousness to gain people’s support : BN=0. Pakatan =1
    3. Methods, organisation and discipline : BN =1, Pakatan =0

    External Factors
    ==========
    Changeable – voters sentiments. BN=0. Pakatan = 1
    Unchangeable (almost) – electoral seats. BN =1. Pakatan =0.

    To a large extent, according to SunTzu, the factors to win are internal factors. If there are no changes to the internal conditions of BN and Pakatan, could it results in a stalemate or hung parliament.

    Like

  6. Dr Hsu
    Dec 31, 2010 @ 12:03:40

    BN has the advantage of control of the main steam media news. Because of the Printing presses and publication act, newspapers editors, even if they are secretly pro opposition, dare not voice out since their rice bowls are at stake. The bosses of these papers practice a lot of self censorship, so much so they are like the sycophants in politics.

    I have stressed time and again that to have real democracy, newspapers muct be free of this Act, or rather the fear of not able to renew their licences. Afterall, newspapers editors and reporters are human too, they need work to survive.

    Although internet plays an important role, less people are reading blogs nowadays than before 308..and not everyone goes on to the net. Comparatively, there are still much more people reading the main stream papers than internet news.

    As Joseph Goebbels famously said, a lie big enough and told often enough would become “truth”. So is propaganda. So the external factor of voters sentiments are partly being shaped by this factor of spreading news, especially among the majority race and especially among the rural Indians.

    Like

  7. Li Li Fa
    Dec 31, 2010 @ 13:39:27

    Dr. Hsu,
    I agree with you that even our PM does not know when to call for the 13GE. The situation is as dangerous as driving a coach down from Cameron Highlands, and as drifty as the Moonsoon waves off the Mersing shores.

    Now that the BN has signalled the start of the race towards the 13GE, all parties including the opposition and the middle-path-walkers are gearing towards this objective. Perhaps, a festival of frogs will also be a fringe programme to the main show. Already, some sabotage of sorts have started in Selangor.

    The BN has currently too much on its plate to chew on and have not even tasted the entrees of Sarawak and Terang voters; so to call the GE now would cause indigestion, nausea, and possible throw-outs.

    Like gazing into the crystal ball which is also round, the GE is still floating among the stars.

    Like

  8. wisely
    Jan 01, 2011 @ 17:32:15

    Dr. Hsu,

    Great analysis but i will add a little. From my conversation with an aid to Zambry, he pointed out that GE 13 will likely be in 2012 mainly because UMNO have not started their training yet and it will normally takes a year to complete the training from branch level up and also bonus and civil servant salary will need to be paid and increased first – at least that the practise all this while.

    Like

  9. Phua Kai Lit
    Jan 03, 2011 @ 10:01:16

    Dear Dr Hsu

    I am awaiting more Wilileaks material pertaining to Malaysia.

    Meanwhile, the US govt is going after Bradley Manning and Julian Assange.
    http://www.commondreams.org

    Such abuse of state power is almost enough to make one become an
    (non-violent) anarchist!

    Like

  10. disgusted
    Jan 03, 2011 @ 17:28:10

    I guess most readers here have caught the drift. GE will NOT be that soon. My 2sen worth view is that Najlis is chicken-heart, always has been and a “kiasu”. He has not even make a grand tour, maybe not once but a couple of times to feel and test the pulse at ground level. March is not possible. There are a hundred and one factors. The SPR slave has to be ready to serve the dirty tricks too, and more efforts to sabotage the PR on the way. But one thing is uncertain, anymore by-elections to make the biggest record ever before high noon, the D-Day? Look at the heavens, the answer maybe there.

    Like

  11. CYC
    Jan 03, 2011 @ 17:43:01

    Another riddle appears before this riddle is solved. Have you ever heard a young chicken called Tan Keng Liang who controversially ignited the debate of the suitability/capability of a pregnant ADUN in dischaging her duties? This young man does not have enough mother’s love thus make him a human incapable of appreciating the meaning of nurturing a new life. I humbly request him to shut his mouth and quit his ambition of becoming an elected representative for he has exhibit his lack of character of a caring human.

    Like

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