Seeing the light now!

Met a good friend and PKR CC member last week during the festive season. He  is slated to fight in a constituency in KL. He is very confident of his chances , and he would probably be in the cabinet if PR wins the next GE since he has administrative experience.

He is very confident that his party would form the next govenrment even though I cautioned that BN still had the upper hand with its massive state machinery at its disposal.

I hope that PR leaders should not be too overconfident. Even if winning is in sight, they should be working hard. ANother thing is that seat allocation must be done early and once decided, all parties must adhere to it , otherwise there would be back stabbing and leg pulling, so often seen in the past among all the parties.

The number one question is when will be the election.

I have opined initally that i would be in the second half of this year, meaning anytime now. I have however, after Bersih, changed my view that it may only come next year, after the Bersih shock for the BN leaders.Bersih has changed the whole equation and BN is no longer confident of being the ‘sure-win’.

But PM may now be facing a strong internal force to force him out, and if I were him, I would call an election now, so that he can at least hope that if he wins ,he can have legitimacy to deny whoever is after his position within his party.He can also place some of his allies and supporters as candidates, and bargain with others to support him if those ‘others’ want to be candidates. Calling an election now would be the best way to clip the wings of those wanting him out.

Otherwise, if he waits, and economy will get worse, and his rating would slide further, and those who are trying to oust him would be in a much stronger position to force him out. He may not even last till end of the year.

Of course, calling an election now would be very risky as far as winning is concerned (GE13). He may actually lose the Federal seat and thus be the scapegoat for the whole party. But if he does not call one now, he  would probably have to say bye bye to Putrajaya due to internal dissent like the Sleepy Head, and someone else from his party would rise to be a seat warmer . That someone would then try to postpone calling an election as long as possible, to try to put forward his own theme ( his own rhetoric) and using this rhetoric to attract the Malay votes.

The SO-DO-Me case  is coming to an end. But win or lose, the preception is that BN is already a loser in this case. Even if they manage to put AI into jail, and thus he cannot contest the next GE, if would have a backlash effect, and PR is sure to ride on the sympathy votes to win. If he is let off, then the ‘frame’ theory would have gathered credence and it would again lead to many fence sitters to cross over.

The wife of the top leader is not helping him by showing up on National tv and gave a speech. It is against the indigenous culture and norm for a wife to take such lime light, and this would have given those who are trying to topple him added ammunition to push him out.

Whatever is happening,  the light of seeing a 2 party system is now showing up at the end of the tunnel. Just hope that PR leaders do not do anything rash or be over-confident and shoot themselves on their own feet.

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8 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. Richard Loh
    Sep 05, 2011 @ 16:55:18

    Agree, agree, agree..but there are always some bad apples in a basket. PR can do well provided they can discuss the seats and not wanting to be greedy for more seats among the individual party. Infighting is the worst enemy in politics itself.

    The light is there but who is in control of the switch, umno/bn is surely going to c4 the switch if PR can firmly hold on to it.

    Like

  2. streetfighter
    Sep 05, 2011 @ 22:01:23

    Very good analysis doc.I think PR has the upper hand provided the electoral process is thoroughly cleansed.Although just a bit dissapointed that Mat Sabu chose at this crucial moment giving his opinion regarding Bukit Kepong incident.This might jeapordise some percentage of malay votes swing to PR.I hope not so.Finally please allow me to digress from this topic…how’s your makan-makan in the open house during the festive season with that important friend from PKR,Dr Hsu?Hot?Great?As usual?I believe you enjoyed yourself as we also enjoy your articles.Cheers Dr Hsu!

    Like

  3. monsterball
    Sep 05, 2011 @ 22:20:55

    Doc..you have written it all ….with facts and wise advises.
    Pakatan looses….it will be their own overconfident attitudes.
    But Anwar’s case..will make Malaysians simply want change…especially if he is in jail.

    Like

  4. monsterball
    Sep 05, 2011 @ 22:45:27

    DAP took the role to exposed corruptions with no fear.
    PAS fights for true Muslims…playing race and religion politics with UMNO b.
    keDAILan give Muslims the alternatives…and Anwar is the most successful Opposition politician to take away Muslim supporters away fro UMNO b.
    Put them together..as Pakatan Rakyat party…it scares he hell of Najib….day and night.
    So far so good…..and Pakatan succeeded mostly by exposing.. being calm…not irritated at all…and let the monkies go NUTS.
    Lim Guan Eng have to be very careful not to feel overconfident and come out with arrogant statements.
    Sincerity and truthfulness..is the opposite side of the coin with corrupted actors..doing all the can to make LGE angry..
    One step at a time for years ….and they made it.
    Next few hundred steps…to PutraJaya.

    Like

  5. Li Li Fa
    Sep 06, 2011 @ 00:26:01

    Dr. Hsu, Your article is most timely.

    PR is finally at its last lapse of the marathon trying to win the Putrajaya trophy. Having won 2/3 majority and given the current political weightage on their side, it is not unusual that PR is a little overconfident. Perhaps, they should be more sober, consolidated, purposeful and gearing up to the finale.. Less they forget, the people are the casters of the votes in a democracy and they have the final say.

    Like you said, the Bersih Movement has also changed the political equation.
    The signs are on the wall, and the light at the end of the tunnel can be seen beckoning to a countdown to the finishing line..
    .
    BN, the old fox, at this juncture, will be most audacious, bold, and scheming, and will try all means to deny PR from claiming the prize. However, BN has its own internal squabbles and factions, which can also kick the ball into their own goal.

    The 2nd man with the old-horse connection wants to occupy the boss’s seat. So does the lady with the ring of fire, other young turks and the other old guards led by the Prince.

    The situation now is so intriguing and almost like the spy-vs-spy adventures.
    Meanwhile the PM still keeps his cards very close to his chest. I guess he will not be able to continue doing that for long. It will be to his advantage to announce the election date soon, The tide will work against BN more and this could be another tsunami in PR’s favour. .Will he spring a surprise? What about his reforms?

    If he doesn’t reform, will he be singing his swan song? Perhaps, in a duet with his famous songbird wife, singing Money, Money Money. This will be responded by people around the world singing Yellowsubmarine.

    Like

  6. Phua Kai Lit
    Sep 06, 2011 @ 07:47:15

    Dear Dr Hsu

    The next GE will be the most expensive and dirtiest ever
    in the history of Malaysia.

    But like the Filipino elections during the Marcos regime, the
    massive spending by the regime will boost the economy (temporarily) !

    Like

  7. Kenny
    Sep 06, 2011 @ 09:43:18

    I think the GE will be in November. The signs are all there.

    Like

  8. monsterball
    Sep 06, 2011 @ 10:48:37

    For 13th GE….UMNO b is caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
    They know Najib will lead them to loose it.
    Some want to get rid of him…hoping to satisfy many minorities voters to support UMNO b again.
    On the other hand…they cannot get rid of him..for by doing so…it is admitting so many evil deeds done…giving Oppositions a field day to prove all they have said are true…and as such…they may loose more votes than gaining more.
    Since we know all are so corrupted and everyone have something to hide…most are thinking big fishes are what we want and some pray and hope to be forgotten..but their evil deeds are so great and many…..they will have sleepless nights…if PR governs.
    Do not ignore UMNO b will unite..get more stronger and fight to the last….defending PutraJaya to be free and the only way left for Them is to crate tensions..more provocations….plan race and religion conflicts…making Malaysia upside down.inside out…to give them a reason to declare Emergency Rule for two years and start all over again.
    It is better to expect the worst…and I think PR is doing that……..by being calm and quiet and give them no chances to declare Emergency Rule……like 1969.
    That is the Devil and the deep blue sea UMNO b are facing..and Mahathir could not care less..for he is only interested to try and convince Malaysians what a great PM he was with his usual sickening one sided story…that all are wrong and he is never wrong.
    He will abandon Najib…if he has a chance to convince Malaysians how great he was.

    Like

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