With the GE coming soon, political scenerio is now very intriguing and fluid. Do not be surprised by anything now.
Over to the side of BN, apart from the dominant party, which has still very strong support in rural areas, many other component parties are in a shambles . Recently, we read about the news of manyof their ‘second echelon’ members quitting the second biggest component party. These people are not frogs; they did not quit to jump to another party. Rather, they are disillusioned with the leadership and the direction.
This feeling is in fact quite prevalent in some of the urban-based componet parties and while the more outspoken ones will quit officially, there are many more quiet ones becoming inactive, and just letting their membership lapse and fade away.
The question about this second biggest component party is no longer how many seats they can win, but rather will their DVD-scandalised president stand for election and if he wins by standing in a Malay majority seat, will he be appointed minister? There are rumours that he may not stand but will pull his weight to make sure his son stand in a safe seat. If that rumour is true and if BN wins, we may see a very young full minister and by virtual of being a full minister, he can be expected to ride a helicopter to the top of this party, with his father waiting at the top helipad, to welcome him to the dragon seat, so to speak.
In the dominant party, the question now is whether there will be a cabinet reshuffle; if so, be sure that the cowgate woman will be out of the cabinet, possibly as a trade off for some form of immunity. And if there is a cabinet reshuffle, many people think that the GE may only be called at the end of this year. But do not be surprised that it can be anytime now, even with a reshuffle, if opportunity arises to the advantage of the incumbent.
Over to the other side, the question is whether AI will go to jail. If the answer is affirmative , then the next question is who will be the PM in the event PR wins the next GE.
That person will have to be acceptable not only to all the three PR component parties, but also to the voters, especially the urbanites who form the strongest support base for PR. In the reality of politics of Malaysia at this moment, that person has to be a Malay.
Only 2 persons can fit that bill– the wife of AI, and KU Li. Which one will that be? Will it hinge on whether that person is willing to give way for AI to become PM later, if he wins in a higher court.
Can the situation in Thailand happen here, where a proxy contested, won and was made the head of government? Well, I will not discount any eventuality.
Anything can happen now, even the most unexpected!