In fatigue mood

When will be the General Election?

This question has been asked many times, and many hints were dropped but each times we only hear the sounds of the stairs but each time, the likely date came and passed without election being called.

This can only mean one thing. The person who holds the power to call the Election is not sure of a good win.

That person is of course the Prime Minister. He has to his disposal intelligence reports from the police, army, information department and his members on the ground. Though this sort of intelligence has its shortcoming, as in 2008 when no one (from  intelligence received) actually believed that opposition could win so many states, it is still one of the main influences that the Top has to take into consideration, since in the past, it has served as good indicators as to the mood of the electorates.

As I have said, the delay in calling the election can only mean one thing. PM is not sure of a good win. Without a good win, even if his team wins again, his own future is doomed. That must have weighed heavily in his considerations to let the many windows of opportunities slipped past.

The seats held by some of the component parties, such as mCA and Gerakan, are the main worries. Many members of both parties have become inactive and this has weakened considerably the election machinery of both parties, especially in the urban and semi urban seats.

That is why, instead of relying on these parties to win votes,  PM has adopted a presidential style of campaigning to reach out to the urban electorates. He would have succeeded in gaining more, if not for the scandals like NFC.

Even some of the issues that were considered part of Big Brother’s sacred duty to protect (members of UMNo like to talk about ‘struggle’), like education, were being liberated, albeit not systematically.

In order to appease the Chinese community, one Chinese independent school was approved to be built in Kuantan. Even though there were certain clauses in the approval letter that have given rise to some suspicions, it is still a big concession made to the Chinese educationists, a concession that would not be possible if not for the weak position of the Big Brother.

 AMidst all these, and the economy that is apparently doing well, and the hints by the Top Leader of the significance of 11,  many now believe that GE will be called in November, the last window period this year.

I believe party members of both sides are now really in fatigue mood. Just like the boy who cries wolf, after  many wolf calls, many on the ground would have felt so tired that they would not bother to go up the mountain to help the boy, so to speak.  Each time a window period appears, the ground members are mobilised, adrenalin flowed, only to have that window lapsed without anything happening, and adrenalin ebbing again and again. This spiking and ebbing of adrenalin would have made anyone tired and lose interest.

Coming back to the economy, is it really doing well? I suppose it is in better shape than many European countries. But many people on the ground , especially in the retail sector, complain that business is actually slow and times are tough. Many working people are complaining of diminishing disposable income, all these in relative to the perennial increase in food prices..

Hawker food is now in the region of RM 5.50 in coffee shop and RM 8 and above in the so-called Kopitiams and cafe. A simple hawker meal would have set a person back for at east RM10.

The political situation is fluid. BN may have a slight advantage being the incumbents, but PR has a real fighting chance to win.

Things could be even worse at end of the year or beginning of next, so November may likely be the last best date for BN to go into battle.

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19 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. complete_nutrition
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 10:46:42

    Dr Hsu, there is quite a number of ”Spelling Error”.
    I do hope you will correct it immediately. Cheers.

    Like

  2. Dr Hsu
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 10:49:29

    complete_nutrition
    Thanks.
    It is written in between seeing patients, and typing very fast on my sticky keyboard.. I have read through and made some corrections.

    Like

  3. Simple Sense
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 12:12:10

    Must there be a General Election?

    Like

  4. Dr Hsu
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 12:35:29

    simple sense
    Under the constitution, an election must be called every 5 years. This also makes sure that the government is accountable to the people.

    Like

  5. monsterball
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 13:37:08

    After May 13th 1969 riots….there was no GE and Malaysia was under Military rule for more than 2 years.
    Watch out a sting by Najib to put off 13th GE.
    He needs that….if he feels BN will take up the role as Opposition.
    Why do you think we have BERSIH 3 and 4 maybe coming?
    “MUST” is the key word from simple sense….and the robbers and thieves have a track record to break all rules.
    UMNO b is not behaving like ordinary politicians being elected by the People..
    They are behaving like Lords & Kings over and above all people…including the Rulers.
    It is so the moment Mahathir formed his UMNO b and he is the best in dirty politics …for 22 years…fooling Malaysians…stealing billions with no fear.
    Henceforth…UMNO b leaders and key members are corrupted to the core…
    We are dealing with rouges and thieves and must there be a GE?…not really so….if the crooks feels they will lose the GE.

    Like

  6. monsterball
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 13:52:23

    It is People Power that Najib and the UMNO b kingpins… fear most.
    To start a riot..by fanning racial hatreds …UMNO b will find that not difficult.
    To realized hundreds of innocent lives mat die for no reasons…have split UMNO b law makers.their Supreme Council members…more than 1000 split int three…the level headed good guys….the real bad guys.. and .the racist fanatics.
    Or taking the words from Mahathir ‘s mouth….it is a GE to support the Devils we know …or the Angels we also know…but not given a chance to govern the country yet.
    People Power is growing by leaps and bounds….and that makes Najib MUST declare 13th GE date…possibly in November….and face the music.
    He has no other choice.

    Like

  7. Phua Kai Lit
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 15:03:48

    “In order to appease the Chinese community, one Chinese independent school was approved to be built in Kuantan”.

    The residents of Kuantan are up in arms over the approval of the Lynas project.
    UMNO and MCA candidates will be wiped out in Kuantan and Raub (Bukit Koman) electoral districts.

    Like

  8. klm
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 16:23:03

    Is the economy really doing well?

    The economy is propped up by mega govt spending in construction projects. The numbers may be there. But the benefits have not filtered down to the small business and ordinary people. It is a white wash. It is like putting up a nice big poster to hide the slum. It is voodoo economics. It is Najibnomics.

    Like

  9. After1969child
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 17:16:30

    What happen if the incumbent government do not hold election by then, what then? They do hold the instrument of power and we always assume that the constitution is the highest law in the land and have authority over the real physical world.

    Just asking…

    Like

  10. Simple Sense
    Sep 06, 2012 @ 22:52:56

    S&P has a report out for likelihood of down grading Malaysia credit rating. S&P has been downgrading countries which failed to manage their balance sheet or it is going in the wrong direction. Using huge public spending to prop up GDP only works as bridge gap measure with healthy reserves. It has a price to pay.
    Malaysia economy is doing well today.
    Ajib Koh is a nice guy, trying to please everyone. Not sure who has the real power in terms of calling the GE dates.
    The old horse is getting more active and more nasty, this is a sign of things to come. A lot of stress in his words.
    The increase of violent incidents after Merdeka day is not occurrence by accident!
    BN can easily win the votes just by doing the right things, as it has control of all the public service agencies and the fund of the nation. Just do the right things does not seem that tough!
    The attacks on Pakatan ceremahs only reveal BN lack of confident, why? BN is the boss, the boss should do the boss thing.

    Like

  11. Wave33
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 06:56:29

    The one holding the joker card for calling for the date, is counting the days left to be in power. Dr.Hsu has mentioned before about the internal tussle of power and I agree that BN and UMNO have to win more seats than 2008 or else FLOM has to pack her birkins bags and leaves Putrajaya.

    Since it is inevitable, just hang on, as long as he can, so FLOM gets to continue her shopping until the very last day, when EC announce that shopping time is closed. This would be ‘hari ini dalam sejarah’ that EC is the one that calls the shots.

    But there is another possibility to remain in power, roll out the martial law and continue to be in power during the state of emergency.

    I think they thought of Operasi Lalang II, that it will not work. In March 2008, the Rakyat is ready to vote for a kayu for a seat, even a person on ISA detention gets a seat too. Apparently, we have voted for far too many frogs instead of kayu.

    Perhaps, there would be some sort of helicopter crash before any movement on the ground. I just do not know who would be in the helicopter this time.

    Accident do happen…

    Like

  12. Ellese
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 07:17:29

    This is a fair write and believe its grounded. Najib might as well accept the fact that 2/3 rd cannot be achieved and proceed with the election. No credible election analysis says pr can win so might as well he call now than later. The politicization of everything now is pulling us back from realizing our potentials.
    Najib must accept the fact that The Chinese majority will not support bn and bn should not spend for or extend further the racial segregation policy of our youngs into race based schools. The distrust is deep as evidence by many of their believe in false unsubstantiated propaganda like lynas, bn deficit budget making us bankcrupt, Water issues et all. However hard he tries to explain the truth or the facts thereof, they will still believe in the untruth. For example, they will always believe bn deficit budget will bankcrupt the nation but pr similar deficit budget will not and in fact good for the nation. Similarly the S&P report which requires the introduction of gst and abolishment of subsidies to avoid downgrades. They believe bn will get malaysia downgraded but the truth is pr also will get it downgraded because they too don’t support gst and abolishment of subsidies. These are illogical and irrational positions that they believe in. So they are beyond redemption and thus najib should stop further specific assistance to them. Najib should do things benefitting the whole like the etps mrt or other public infra works and not in things which divide us further like the racial segregation education policy which no one appreciate. it makes him look stupid.

    Like

  13. aiz
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 07:21:32

    I used to have hawker meal with ‘bintang lima’ taste at ‘kaki lima’ price but not anymore now. I think soon hawker food would be with ‘kaki lima’ taste at ‘bintang lima’ price.

    Like

  14. Phua Kai Lit
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 08:00:28

    “But there is another possibility to remain in power, roll out the martial law and continue to be in power during the state of emergency”.

    This is the 21st century. The international community is less willing to accept
    illegitimate seizures of power via coups (e.g. West Africa) or illegitimate prolongations of power by Third World regimes that have lost their legitimacy
    e.g. Burma).

    Like

  15. Simple Sense
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 09:04:06

    Yes, information technologies has changed since 1969 , information now spreads like lightnings and also in real time video via real public channels, not controlled media( western or eastern countries). Therefore,there is tremendous risk for those trying to pull another chaos and grab power. People also are capable to think for themselves, thanks to the efforts in mass education. More people can read, access information for themselves,think independently. Only elements left is motivation and invested interests,these never change.
    The West only show interests and actively interfere only when the outcome benefits their interests in terms of resources or politically. So are Russia and China, all the same kind with different colors. Democracy struggle also evolves, look at how fast things had closure with Tunisia, then it took longer for Egypt, still longer for Libya which finally done with NATO air power and American superior intelligence. Look at Syria now, the struggle prolongs much longer and more innocent people die! If the countrymen of a nation do not love their country,then foreign elements are ready anytime to help themselves to it. This never change since human history.
    General Election is part of puzzle of democracy. Every democratic country has general election and winning side get the right to serve the country. Look at Taiwan, Korea, Japan, Indonesia, Thailand, Phillipines, their democracies have all evolved to a respectable maturity and these countries also become economically very competitve in the last 10 to 15 years given nothing is in perfect state, and never will be, even for USA and UK.
    I only pray Malaysia follows the same evolution path.
    What happened to wawasan 2020! Nobody talks about it, even the old horse also never talk about it anymore.
    As Malaysian, this is our only home. This is where our hearts belong!

    Like

  16. Wave33
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 10:58:03

    Phua Kai Lit quote:
    “This is the 21st century. The international community is less willing to accept
    illegitimate seizures of power via coups (e.g. West Africa) or illegitimate prolongations of power by Third World regimes that have lost their legitimacy
    e.g. Burma).”

    I have to agree with you, but with UMNO mentality, it is likely to happen. Even Operasi Lalang previously is not acceptable for nowadays standard.

    With those things said by EC, Perkasa, Home Minister and UMNO elite members at large, you can judge on what kind of mentality that they have.

    MALAYSIA BOLEH!

    Like

  17. aiz
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 12:18:03

    Wave33, My take is “we” malays, chinese, indians and all others must be allowed/tolerated to co-exist peacefully in this country, if not “operasi pupus” and “accident may happen” mentality would always make us see the rain fallin’ down on sunny days.

    Like

  18. CYC
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 14:42:03

    Diminishing disposable income is real. GDP growth has no meaning if bread and butter affordability continue to be a burden. GTP can cook up any figures there like as statistic by itself got no meaning unless translate and be felt of its effect by the general public. I choose not to continue with rotten govt who condone open corruption and raping the law to its advantage. Worse of all, there are indications the cronies are busy robbing state owned assets through whichever ways possible just in case BN lose the coming GE. Even MCA is trying hard to organise another grand dinner through TARC alumni for Jibby to announce some sweetener i.e upgrading TARC into university college. Furthermore there is good possibilty MCA also trying hard to jointly develop the remaining 50 acres of land belongs to TARC with some developer citing a silly reason of TARC did not managed to evict the illegal squatters. All these craps are unfolding and how could u tolerate further.

    Like

  19. monsterball
    Sep 07, 2012 @ 18:47:30

    According to Ellese…….UMNO b is all truthful…but the lies spread by PR supporters..are so powerful…bad luck for Najib..
    13th GE …voters are such idiots..will vote for change.. for the worst.

    Like

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