Touch and Go

GE is coming. It is now immaterial when PM dissolves Parliament. It has to be held by June 28 at the latest, and now it is almost April.

So far, most observers would agree that this is one battle that is not easy to judge the outcome. The whole situation is so fluid, that this is the first time in the history of Malaysia that there is a real chance for the incumbents to fall. But as incumbents, they still hold the upper hands, and as I have mentioned before, the gradient of the uphill battle is now less steep, but it is still an uphill battle.

One fact is very clear and most people would agree:  Most urban people are eager to vote for change.  But among the rural and semirural areas, things are not as rosy for the opposition.

While the opposition may gain some seats in Johore, Sarawak and Sabah, they need to create a tsunami there in order to win GE 13.

Many months ago, I have told a foreign observer that one of the cards that PM will play is that he will tell people that  his position is not strong, and if he doesnt win convincingly, he will be toppled by his own people in his party, even if BN wins. By playing this card, he can hope to  win back some of the  votes even among the ethnic Chinese voters, especially those older ones in smaller towns and rural areas, who would prefer him than his deputy.

This is exactly what he is doing now. He is now saying that without a convincing win, he may lose his job. This may create fear among some of the oldr voters since to many people, the perception is that his replacement would be worse than this PM. SO his play is to tell this group that if you vote for opposition, and opposition is unlikely to win, then you would have a worse PM than him.

While this may help swing votes for PM, based on his own personal merits, I think we need to convince people that having come so far, we need to consolidate the 2 party system by voting in the other side for once.

At this stage, it is in my humble opinion that the opposition pact must try to win as much support from the majority race as possible. In my observation and calculation , and of course I could be wrong, many of the Malay votes have indeed gone back to BN.  Without winning a sizeable portion of the Malay votes, political reality would make it difficult for PR to govern, even if they win the GE.  A sizeable portion means at least 40% of Malay support. Theoretically, PR can win by winning over 80% of nonMalay vots and just over 30% of Malay votes; but that kind of government would not be healthy.

 

 

 

 

10 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. CYC
    Mar 30, 2013 @ 21:35:23

    Dr, don’t discount the impact of Solidarity Anak Muda Malaysia (SAMM) had on the rural folks especially Felda settlers. They have doing a fine job in disseminating unbiased information to correct the mindset of the Malay rural folks.
    The uncertain factor here is Indian voters and how well PR will perform in East Malaysia.

    Like

  2. Ming
    Mar 30, 2013 @ 22:21:47

    The PM is regularly being briefed by the intelligence apparatus under his control on the ground situations in each constituency, and the conclusion as to the most possible outcome if the GE is being held in the short term. My reading is that the total tally from the intelligence briefs is not favorable to BN, thus Najib is too worried to declare the dissolution of Parliament.
    He would have dissolved Parliament a long time ago if the briefs were favorable to BN.
    By stretching the parliamentary term to the very limit is a very desperate act hoping that a miracle may happen to change the equation just before the very end.

    Like

  3. Thor
    Apr 01, 2013 @ 02:46:54

    Sometimes when examining too many details before deciding can lead to decision paralysis. So I decided to try the technique described by Malcolm Gladwell in his book “Blink”. While keeping up with the news/commentary flow I try to listen to what my subconscious thought or inner voice tells me while taking care that my personal bias and emotion are kept out as far as possible. And what I got back is that the Opposition will suffer a slight setback, which is to say they will not do as impressively as they did in the last election.

    I’m sticking my neck out by saying this, so let’s wait for the final results and we’ll see whether I get my head handed back to me on a platter!

    Like

  4. taikohtai
    Apr 01, 2013 @ 08:36:18

    Negeri Sembilan has already gone into caretaker mode and other states shall be following suit in a matter of just days. By not calling for the dissolution of Parliament, Najib is holding the country to ransom. Why is Najib doing a Sultan of Sulu? Is BN still the government of the people? Or is BN bent on chaos and insecurity by playing on the voters’ mind in order to divide and rule again?
    I totally agree with Doc’s assertion that Pakatan be given a chance this election. The patient is already down on his knees as BN has max out its credit. When one looks at the mirror in Malaysia, one sees Greece and Cyprus. And the mamak doctor in the house wants to prescribe more of the same medicine!
    Time for the voters to tell BN to take a dose of its own medicine instead. Mark my words, federal BN shall emulate their own colleagues in Pakatan controlled states and turn out to be just as inept as backbenchers.

    Like

  5. Simple Sense
    Apr 01, 2013 @ 14:36:09

    The three parties which will come out as winners at the expense of the rest are UMNO, PAS, DAP, not in any order as listed. MCA will be gone, Blue Eye Party is ahead of time for the Malays, will not win much as they wish. I can be wrong on this.
    If PAS can win over significant votes from the Malays,then Pakatan has a chance.
    We all know where DAP gets its support n votes.
    If BN wins 2/3 majority, it is all UMNO victory!
    GE13 is where Malaysia at its historical cross road. Left turn or Right turn, or go straight!
    In the end, whoever is the next government needs to fight corruption or Malaysia is done by corruption. Some of us can think of continuing living and working oversea! There is always alternatives and choices since ancient time, people migrant from one region to another….

    Like

  6. how to migrate?
    Apr 01, 2013 @ 15:32:45

    Simplesense,
    It’s always easier said than done – not everyone can migrate. I wish to do so, but at 60, what are my chances? So, we need to make our votes count and ABU so that our future generations have a better country to live in.

    Like

  7. Wave33
    Apr 01, 2013 @ 20:24:11

    The joker card is on Sabah & Sawarak, they have to deliver or else BN will win again. Hope that the Lahad Datu and Global Witness will create more rooms for Pakatan. Unfortunately, politician in Sabah & Sawarak only thinks about their own states, they not thinking of Malaysia as a whole, for the better upbringing of their future generation.

    As on Peninsular, UMNO is stronger from previous GE, those whom sabotage Abdullah Badawi by the calling of the ex-dictator whom refuse to drop dead, is back in huge numbers. Those UMNO members had regretted their sabotage plan that really created an unforeseen tsunami, even Pakatan were surprised by it.

    MCA is history, there is no need for me to elaborate further.

    Indians folks are the problem now, their are in for the highest bidder and the same goes to Sabahan & Sawarakian. Indians, Sabahan and Sarawakian are the swing votes for a cost, it only cost between RM50 to RM250. Who has the money? Politician in Sabah & Sarawak are big time buaya too. They could be given higher undeclared state revenue, all under our noses. Why the 16th September failed? Takde duitlah…

    Most urban folks has decided ages ago. I still get SMS from BN to answer a survey question every now and then of my vote preferences. I refuse to reply those SMSs.
    My answer is in the ballot. Make it quick, wasted too much time reading blogs. I am dead tired.

    BN chances of winning is high, as doc says “It is an UMNO victory” not MCA neither it is MIC but is it all those component parties of BN in Sabah & Sawarak that takes the credits. All those selfish politicians in Sabah & Sarawak.

    PM could make last two desperate moves, well this time, C4 is not needed, that would increase a lot of votes. Malaysian really loves Santa Claus, “I Luv PM”

    -One- Mention the word “T A L A Q”, it is long overdue.

    -Two- Sack DPM and replace with Khairy Jamaluddin (or I hate to mention this…, ex-dictator’s son?)

    As for action -One- the whole nation would be in jubilation both BN and Pakatan.

    As for action -Two- there are a lot of disappointments. Will UMNO members sabotage after knowing what kind of damage they have done in 2008? If they do, UMNO is gone forever, UMNO members have learn their lesson hard and know how it is like being sodomised by their own doing. UMNO has a greater good than some DPM whom is Malay first.

    It is a hard battle ahead and the dirtiest one with postal votes and phantom voters

    Who we gonna call? Ghostbusters!

    Like

  8. Phua Kai Lit
    Apr 02, 2013 @ 13:43:42

    The very future of Malaysia depends on the 3-way battle between
    the Political Dinosaur, the Husband and Wife big-spending team,
    and the Malaysian Comeback “Kid” !

    Like

  9. Li Li Fa
    Apr 02, 2013 @ 18:37:34

    Never in the history of this nation has its General Election be faught with hazardous ‘political claws and weapons. ‘ It is also most corrosive, eruptive, and ballistic, and seems to push all previous General Elections into the freeway of easy putting.

    Never has the nation seen an incumbent PM so hardworking running helter skelter desperately dishing out cash all over the nation.

    Never has the nation seen the opposition front so united working in unison towards a Parliamentary cause and rule which they so deserve after 55 years in the tainted hands of incumbents.

    The day will come for the nation to rejoice because the people will be making the right choice , very soon, for a fair, just and righteous government, thus ushering this feebled state from darkness into a bright new dawn.

    Like

  10. Phua Kai Lit
    Apr 04, 2013 @ 08:22:03

    Question for Mozambique:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-22008933

    Same question for Malaysia !

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: