Mathematically not a Chinese tsunami

Many people are disappointed with the results of GE13.

Even though PR has won 51% of the popular votes, it has only 89 seats against 133 seats of BN. This is of course because of the gerrymandering that gives rural seats much more say in determinig which party would prevail in a general election.

Immediately after the election results were known, I wrote on my facebook:

The results showed more of a urban rural divide. Lim Kit Siang’s margin showed that he won not only Chinese votes, but from other races as well. Tian Chua would not have won Batu,a mixed seats with Malay majority, without Malay support… 

To prove my point and that PM’s assertion about  a Chinese tsunami is wrong, we should resort to scientific method, and do this mathematically.

There are 13.3 millions voters for GE 13, out of which 29.68% or 3.94 millions are Chinese Malaysian voters.

Assuming the turnout of the Chinese voters are the same as the general population which is 80%, the number of Chinese casting votes would be 3.15 millions.

Assuming that 90% of the Chinese voted for PR (this is actually improbable), that would be 2.83 million votes.

But PR received more than 5.62 millions votes, which means that even if 90% of the Chinese voted for PR, they comprise of only 50% of the support that PR receives.

At a more realistic 80% Chinese support for Opposition, PR would get 2.5 million votes  from the Chinese ethnic group only.

The fact that it received more than 5.62 million total votes means that more than 3.1 millions votes are from non Chinese Malaysian.

The tsunami against BN is more an urban tsunami than putting the blame on  any particular ethnic group. This  is clearly reflected that in 2 of the  most urbanised states, Selangor and Penang, BN lost more ground than before.

If not for Sabah and Sarawak, and to a lesser extent Johor and the gerrymandering,  BN would have lost this GE13.

………also published in Malaysiakini and TheMalaysianInsider

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23 Comments (+add yours?)

  1. klm
    May 07, 2013 @ 11:43:05

    This is the whole problem with UMNO. They are so fixated on race. Everything is race. Malaysia will not move forward as long as these people run the country.

    Like

  2. Lim
    May 07, 2013 @ 12:09:56

    I would put it that the kampung people control the destiny of city people. This is not about race anymore. It is the citizen war.

    Like

  3. Phua Kai Lit
    May 07, 2013 @ 12:25:53

    It is a stolen election.
    My indelible ink came off within two days although I made no effort to get rid of it.

    Like

  4. Dr Hsu
    May 07, 2013 @ 12:27:52

    I was the scond to vote in Puay Chai School, and my ink came off in the afternoon after washing my hands with ordinary soap.

    Like

  5. hannrychanthhannry
    May 07, 2013 @ 13:39:01

    We should be more actively talk about the numbers and why Malaysian wanted change. Every educated Malaysian should share with all Malaysian in rural,kampung,urban and city to allow every citizen who is the racist and what is install for us moving forward. We need to prepare for the next election now with a new strategy.

    Like

  6. Dr Hsu
    May 07, 2013 @ 14:03:32

    BN has only 46.6% of votes. If Independents are added to opposition votes, then it has 53.4 % share.

    percentage

    Like

  7. NoyNoy
    May 07, 2013 @ 14:13:19

    I watched TV1 (which I rarely do) and ready some blogs and was totally heartbroken to hear/see the hatred thrown at the Malaysians Chinese – exactly as Utusan did “what more do the Chinese want? Najib gave them so much! Ungrateful! We boikot them, halau them, etc”
    Not one said: Maybe the ones who voted Opposition wants to change Govt – because of whatever (except racial chauvinism).
    I better save more $$ to send my kids away 😦

    Like

  8. HY
    May 07, 2013 @ 14:35:21

    hsu, i still dun get it, y we win so many state seats 230 versus bn 275 but parliament seat we lost as much? and y the parliament votes seem much higher compare to dun?

    Like

  9. grkumar
    May 07, 2013 @ 14:54:00

    Whilst technically you are correct you must look at the historical context in which the government’s statement was made. It is supported by foreign observers and analysts as well as by domestic observers and analysts of the voting patterns and the outcomes of this GE13.

    Your analysis and the government’s statements must be looked at in context. The Chinese as a group did desert the government with even the MCA die hards deserting their candidates when it became a distinct possibility in the minds of many of them that the government was about to fall.

    Al Jazeera, the BBC, Bloomberg and the Australian ABC all pointed to a 1% or less difference between the parties. Al Jazeera has always been a pro Anwar pro opposition media channel. It is at the very beating heart of all of the springs which Anwar has admitted to being a part of with Ambiga Sreenivasan.

    The ABC’s Jim Middleton a personal friend of Anwar Ibrahim has been accused of distorting the situation with his creative interpretation of the ground realities in Malaysia. But that’s all history now with the truth being registered and expressed at the ballot box. Anwar as ridiculed on the ABC national TV breakfast show making those ridiculous claims of phantom voters and fraud.

    Bob Carr has dismissed all of Anwar’s allegations. it is clear from any of the renowned commentators and political observers that the Chinese did vote as a race block. The results show it when looked at it context. many believed another “Singaporeanization” of the region was under way. They gambled and lost.

    The winner is Waytha Murthi who is now ably assisted y those Indian business groups and Malays and certainly by others as well. The luck of the Chinese has been due to the largesse of the Barisan government. All of them deserted the government and it will not be forgotten.

    But at the end of the day your analysis has some truth to it. but not totally so.

    Like

  10. Dr Hsu
    May 07, 2013 @ 15:10:14

    The biggest winner is Dr M.
    In one stroke, his son is now the MB of a state and within striking distance of the crown.

    Najib’s dismal performance would be used to push him out and thus hasten the rise of his son, with the help of the right wingers who will now be all powerful..

    Like

  11. Dr Hsu
    May 07, 2013 @ 15:40:37

    HY

    Can the difference be because Wilayah has no state seats? Wilayah has more than 1 million voters.

    Like

  12. grkumarGopal Raj Kumar
    May 07, 2013 @ 16:17:57

    The truth to the Chinese putsch was uncovered some time back. And it has sadly come to pass as fact:
    http://takemon.wordpress.com/2009/12/30/what-the-chinese-in-malaysia-really-want/

    Like

  13. CYC
    May 07, 2013 @ 17:34:53

    Dr Hsu, i agreed with your analysis. Sure, the Chinese support for PR is greater than Malay in terms of percentage. But if u look at it geographically (take the example of Selangor) PR won almost all the seats from Selayang onwards down south all the way till Sepang while Bn took the seats from Hulu Selangor till Kuala Selangor. It clearly shows that PR won the more urbanized area while BN won th rural areas. The same scenario happened in other states such as in all other states including Kelantan and Trengganu where PR won all capital city seats though with majority Malay voters.

    They blame it on Chinese tsunami because it is the easiest way for Dr M to kick Najib out by fanning racial sentiment. By doing so, Najib will be portrayed as someone who kowtow to Chinese for dishing out too much elections goodies to the Chinese and neglect the Malays. I predict Najib will warm the PM even shorter than Badawi.

    Like

  14. Samson
    May 07, 2013 @ 17:57:17

    As usual, they need something to fan racial sentiments. So saying chinese preferring opposition is an excuse to not support any chinese community projects in future?

    Like

  15. Dr Hsu
    May 07, 2013 @ 18:05:34

    Samson
    Everything is linked to politics. When politicians say something there is always a motive behind. PM knows knives will be out for him so he has to be seen to be more right winged.

    On the other hand Old Horse, in order to help His son to move up, he needs to gain support n at the same time brush aside all obstacles. The dismal performance will be used as a tool to push n out.

    When two elephants fight, pelandok will be the bogeyman.

    Like

  16. Patrick SA Chai
    May 07, 2013 @ 18:25:49

    Laying blame is the culture of Malaysia politics.

    Najib, blame the Chinese for his own failure.
    CSL, punish the community he claims to represent by not allowing any representation to prove his point.
    Anwar, blame fraudulent election for not getting his dreamed PM post
    Ali Rustam will not ever forget the community that betrayed him
    Shafie Apdal blame the social media
    It is never their fault or wrong doing

    Last minute do good does not instantly change people mindset.
    People mind are make up from the past 4 years or earlier service record.
    Who can forget BN loads of scandals.
    Who like dosage of venomous message in our daily paper, every day, we pay for daily news not political propoganda.
    The more poison one spew, the higher chance of backfire.

    PR supporters are as low as BN cybertroopers, sending false news to instigate such as old image of power outage at election centre, buses at some US airport next to a image of foreign workers clearance in KLIA another show some orang asli queing to vote but the message “hantam Bangla”
    A message by a certain Richter Chew (DAP), 80% of 12.2mil eligible voters, trying to say there is 1 mil phantom voter.

    Please do not insult our inteligence, please remember the story of the boy who cried wolf

    The people can vote you in and the people can also vote you out.

    Like

  17. Trackback: Dr Hsu Debunks Utusan’s ‘Apa Lagi Cina Mahu?’ Incitement Piece | LEADING MALAYSIAN NEOCON
  18. Nick
    May 08, 2013 @ 10:54:37

    Well written article Dr. Hsu, as usual. Agree with your analysis. Your final conclusion: “If not for Sabah and Sarawak, and to a lesser extent Johor and the gerrymandering, BN would have lost this GE13.”. Yes, it is a “urban-internet” tsunami. I voted in Rasah and the queue in Saluran 2 was so long. There were 8 saluran vs only a few in 2008. My wife and i queued for 1.5 hrs. Its true, lots of my friends and families are disappointed but when the dust have settled, there are huge positives from this GE13 outcome. Many of us breathed a huge sigh of relief for the “princess of Lembah pantai”, she won inspite of the odds against her. Her supporters came out in full force, well done! Stay positive everyone and the fight for a better Malaysia for everyone goes on. God Bless Malaysia!

    Like

  19. Dr Hsu
    May 08, 2013 @ 11:11:57

    NIck
    The next few years we should give our support to Bersih. This term, by law, there is going to be a constituency delineation, and we should all work to make sure that the discrepancies between urban and rural seats be reduced.

    They need 2/3 to pass any new delination exercise. Perhpas, Penang ans Selangor, by virtue of having 2/3 majority, should show the way to have proportional represnetation.

    Like

  20. Simple Sense
    May 08, 2013 @ 11:26:43

    I am sure about problem solving in politics, in the business world, to solve a problem, identifying the roost cause is a prerequisite, we often ended up solving the same problems multiple times because we never find the root cause. My doctor friend told me it is the same principle in medicine.
    Does blaming the shift in Malaysian Chinese votes and DAP being manipulative make up the root cause of BN apparent poor performance in GE13!
    If BN is incapable to find the root cause, it will never solve this problem!

    Like

  21. Saw Lim Yeow
    May 08, 2013 @ 11:58:32

    BN is not bothered about the real reason, they want a reason to arouse the rural Malays to hate the urban Chinese.The MCA advertising campaign failed badly( one source said it was a PR sabotage in the advertising agency , hahaha, that came out with the most unbelievable campaign) . They actaully made more people believe in HUDUD.Also I think the campaign made people really vote for PAS.The people want a clean, and just country.
    PM continues where Perkasa and Riduan Tee stopped.The Chinese are ungrateful etc…..

    Like

  22. Kenny
    May 08, 2013 @ 12:33:11

    Without the hanky-panky in the postal votes (in which BN won by 98%), the delible ink, the use of foreigners to vote and fraud in the counting process what will the result be? The number of dubious seats won by BN exceed their margin victory. Anwar may be right that he was cheated of victory. Forget the gerrymandering, we have to work with it but Pakatan could have won despite the gerrymandering.

    The next 5 years must see utmost effort to reform the Election Commission. With such a scandalous EC, BN could conceivably rule forever. Although the number of seats won by PR should indicate a 2 party system we will not have a 2 party system as along as BN has no fear of losing aided by a corrupt EC. How can there be a 2 party system when the ruling regime treats the opposition not as part of the democratic system but as pests and trouble makers to be oppressed and slapped with frivolous charges?

    The problem with proportional representation is that it usually lead to weak governments. There is nothing inherently wrong with ‘first past the post’ system if gerrymandering can be controlled. With BN’s loss of 2/3 majority this can now be controlled. But the opposition’s problem is not the gerrymandering which they have learned to work with but the blatant cheating.

    Like

  23. StevenT
    May 08, 2013 @ 15:34:58

    BN did face the full force of Chinese voters, and expectedly they survived. The turnout for the Chinese community is close to 90%, some place exceeding that amount. An aggregate of 90% chinese voters voted for PR.

    What was unexpected was the Indian swing. BN expected to get at least 60%; but infact Pakatan got >70%. The indian turnout was high as well; probably closer to the 80% range (bearing final figures).

    As for the Malay electorate, the turnout marginally increase by 2-3%. The buik of new voters who did not show up to vote, about 1.3 million are probably from this segment.

    For the popular vote to PR, almost 50% comes from Chinese and probably another 20-25% from the Indian community (Need final figures to confirm). The Malay support actually dropped; that has got to be studied and improve.

    Selangor – This is why it’s so shocking to BN. Seats like Sepang, etc, BN lost their stronghold narrowly ~300 votes. This is clearly due to the Indian community voting for Pakatan. Turnout in Selangor should average ~89%.

    Malaysia – If not for the massive Chinese turnout, BN would have gotten back Selangor and 2/3rd. Let’s not full ourselves. Facts do not lie. There is much work to be done.

    http://thekstreet.blogspot.com/2013/05/forward.html

    Like

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