Only time will tell

Many people are understandably upset. Many more are feeling despondent. Many are worried. Many are even depressed.  Of course there are some who are rejoicing, especially if you are the one getting promoted out of the blue.

I  have a sense of déjà vu. I have seen these happen before. Not once, but many times.

In October 1987, when operating Lalang was launched, and many newspapers were suspected, we all felt what we are feeling right now.

In 1988, when the then Lord President was sacked by a tribunal, the same feeling arose.

Then in 1998, during the height of the financial crisis, when our currency was sinking lower and lower, and the sudden sacking of Anwar as deputy prime minister hit like a bombshell, we again experienced this feeling of despondency and uncertainty.

Lest some of my readers may be too young at that time, let me inform you that all these occurred during Dr M’s administration. But Malaysians ‘mudah lupa’ ; after each episode, Dr M went from strength to strength, leading BN to win by more than two third of seats after each of these events.

i remember in the mid 90’s , especially around the year 1995, he was enjoying strong support of Malaysians, despite the fact that what he had done in the 80s has irreparably weakened various institution of our country. The mechanism of check and balance, so tediously laid down by our earlier leaders , was tossed to the wind. He was hailed as a great leader, and in private conversation I have with many of my businessmen friends, they told me variously that ‘ clear water has no fish’,’ the end results justify the means’ etc etc. By then the people not only forgot the harm he has done in the 80s, but they adored him as a great dictator who was able to provide stability and put money in everyone’s pockets by means of charting a steady growth rate.

Malaysians mudah lupa, yes!

Now we Malaysians are facing yet another sandiwara similarly to earlier ones. The student has learned well and using the same strong hand tactic, he is doing exactly a ‘Dr M’. He must be secretly hoping that since we Malaysians have this ‘ mudah lupa’ traits, if he can buy time, and give stability and good growth rate to the country, people will forget and forgive.  After all, most of the people are like the Joe-6-pack of America, as long as there is enough to spend for himself and his family,  other things are secondary.

One thing in his favor is the power of incumbency. As no.1, with all mechanism of check and balance weakened, and his enormous power to dispense both positions and favors, people with aspiration to climb ladders will succumb to enticement and give him full support. So will those with skeletons in the closet- there must be tons of them.

So he must be hoping that after a couple of years, people will forget.

The main difference between the situation now and the earlier crisis is that the people are much better informed nowadays, with Internet and online media taking over the role of watch dog. Furthermore, the people  are badly affected by bread and butter issues, no thanks to the inflation brought about by the untimely imposition of GST, exacerbated by  the plunging commodities’ prices and the sinking value of the ringgit.

Will Malaysians still mudah lupa?

Only time will tell.

 

this article is published in Malaymailonline.

 

 

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Empire strikes back

Gain Patail replaced as attorney general shocker. This is the headline of a Malaysiakini article just published.

He is apparently being replaced  due to health reasons, even though he was quoted to say that he was not aware of it.( malaymailonline posted an article ‘ Gani says in the dark over sudden termination’ ).

I don’t know what he means by ‘ in the dark’. In the dark of being replaced or in the dark of his’ poor health’?  Anyway this is not important as either way, he is out. In politics, poor health means ‘Chap Bao Fok’ , a Cantonese phrase for packing off.

Yesterday, I mentioned whether we will have a new no 1 depends on the four Tan Sris. Now one of them is out because he is ‘sick’. Do the rest want to be ‘ sick’ too? If they don’t want to be ‘sick’, follow lah certain ‘lifestyle’.

There is a Chinese phrase of killing a chick to warn the monkeys. The chicken is ‘sick’, so if the monkeys want to be healthy, we all know what lifestyle they should adopt!

Apparently No. 2 is also being replaced. No. 1 has suddenly turned tough, no more Mr. Nice Guy. This is as I predicted in my article yesterday where I mentioned that a wounded tiger is most dangerous when cornered, and he would muster his remaining strength to fight back.

This would probably lead to some being chopped from cabinet or even party, and maybe a splinter group will come out. Do not underestimate the effect of chopping no. 2 from office and making AG sick retire due to ‘sickness’ . This will silence all dissenting voices and make members/officials both in the party and the government toe the line. Whether No. 2 can fight back will largely depend on how much grassroots support he can muster and how strong is Old Horse’s hidden hand of cards.

It will be interesting to watch whether this will lead to a realignment of  political forces, with PAS teaming up with Big brother, and splinter group heading to Pakatan.

Even as early as in 2008, when I was still in Gerakan, I have predicted that Malaysia will see a realignment of forces after the 2013 GE. Maybe I may be right after all.

 

 

 

Crossing the Rubicon

No. 2, and PM in waiting, has crossed the Rubicon  and at the same time thrown down the gauntlet.

In opening a division meeting, he was quoted to say:

“1. If not The Edge, then which source can be trusted for 1MDB reports?

2. I told Ah Jib Kor to quit 1MDB but he didn’t listen,

3. Ah Jib Kor must answer WSJ’s allegations on fund transfers.”

Malaysian politics is like wayang kulit. You don’t go on a frontal attack unless you have marshaled sufficient forces. If you don’t have enough bullets, it would be better to lie low and sit on the fence. You only start to attack when you are 99% sure of your chances. DrSubra did a good job in the other party , and now is the undeniable No. 1 in that party.

We all know that the old horse is now behind no. 2, as they share a common interest to see Ah Jib go.

The interesting thing to note now is what will the 4 Tan Sris in the special task force do? Look at the flag and see which side the wind is blowing is probably a good survival skill, and if they go with the wind, then we will probably have a new No. 1 in no time!

The writing is on the wall, and the wind is getting stronger and stronger. Karma will probably cause ‘What goes round comes around!

………………………………

On the other hand, do not underestimate the wounded tiger! A tiger is at its most dangerous when wounded and cornered. If he can muster his remaining strength and counter attack, expect another ‘ operasi rumput’.

When two elephants tigers fight, the people in between will suffer. You probably realize by now your net worth has gone down so much in a short period, no thanks to the negative perception that is partly responsible for the slide in our ringgit! We as the rakyat can only wish to have this end quickly so that the country can move on again from this impasse. Sigh!

jumping the gun

I deplore the suspension of the Edge papers by the Home Ministry.

According to Malaysian insider, a letter from the ministry stated that the publications’ coverage of 1MDB was “prejudicial or likely to be prejudicial to public order, security or likely to alarm public opinion or is likely to be prejudicial to public and national interest”.

if the Edge papers have committed acts that are against the law, those in charge of the papers should be hauled up and charged according to our law, in open court.

If there is no concrete evidence to charge them, then how can the authority says their coverage was prejudicial to public order?

Especially when the investigation into the scandal has not been completed?

Isn’t this act a case of jumping the gun? Or is this meant to silence the critics?