Stagnation, Brexit and The EU

When people perceive that their living standard is not improving, their earning is not rising, their careers are stagnating, that their children’s lives would be worse than theirs, that a decent roof over their heads is beyond reach, they will start to harbour resentment.

These resentments will be directed against governments, against immigrants ( some, instead of trying to adapt to the new country they settle in, try to impose their cultures and beliefs over the existing one in the new land), against establishments.  Thus you have Brexit in the UK and voices in othe EU nations asking for similar referendum.

In the case of European Union, the fact that there are 28 decision makers each trying to fight for their own interests and agenda, it is difficult to form any real initiatives or consensus for economic advancement. As a result,  the whole EU has stagnated for many years.

The EU has simply grown too big to be effective. On top of that, failures of countries like Greece and to a lesser extent Spain require channeling resources and wealth to support them from failing.

The original EEC 6 was much smaller and much more effective. Even after Britain and a few others had joined in the early 70s, it was still feasible. But when it grows to a membership of 28, it becomes too big and cumbersome and stagnation is inevitable.  Imagine a company with 28 equal share holders each trying to have his/her say, this company is not going to go anywhere.

I think the UK may face some problems in the short terms, but once the pain is over, it will be much better for it to grow again.

It is not unlike that a patient who requires radical surgery and who may suffer in the short term, but will become healthier once the short term effect of radical surgery is over!

Advertisements

More problems if B-revote

Brenter>Brexit 1>Bregret 1> Brevote 1>Bremain 1>Bregret 2>Brevote 2>Brexit 2 > Bregret 3>Brevote 3….and so on and so on, if they allow a second vote.

It will set a precedence that even the losing side in a GE can ask for a revote.

It doesn’t matter which side you are supporting, a revote will create more problems and splits…

A feasible way maybe for the Parliament to enact a law that Brexit needs two third majority vote and backdate the law.

But then Britain will become the laughing stock of the world and join the rank of some third world nations.

 

Following Brexit, what’s next?

What an irony!

Germany lost the World war but came back to dominate Europe through European Union.

UK won the war but lost its independence to decide on economic/immigration matters by joining the EU.

It is just a matter of time that UK will leave EU given the pride of the British people.

Instead of joining the EU then, they should have opted to have more cooperation among the British Commonwealth nations which includes Canada, Australia, NZ, India, Malaysia , Singapore and many many others. (56 nations in the commonwealth)..I can still remember in the early 1970s, many British Commonwealth leaders were urging Britain not to join the EU but rather had closer cooperation within this group of English speaking nations. Instead Britain decided to cut its historic ties to the Britisjh Commonwealth.

image.png

Now that UK has voted, the next question is will Scotland seek to secede from UK given its overwhelming support to stay in EU?

Will this also set the precedence of other EU nations holding similar referendum? Already in the Netherlands, voices are heard calling for a nation wide referendum to exit EU.

On a more personal scale, will this lead to the resignation of  the present PM?

 

(Editor’s note: Mr Cameron announced his resignation two hours after this article was posted. It will be untenable for him to cling on to this position as this has weakened him and would open the way for a leadership challenge.  It is decent and responsible for him to resign, as in the example of General De Gaulle who resigned as France’s president following a defeat in a referendum for decentralization in 1969. )

 

 

Devil versus the deep blue sea

BN’s victory in the two just concluded by elections was not unexpected. Despite the allegations and scandals that would have toppled most governments in the world,BN still won as Malaysian politics are played on a different dimension.

The most brilliant strategy by the ruling coalition since the 2013 GE is  playing PAS against DAP, thereby not  only breaking up the rudimentary two-party system, but also causing the opposition parties to backstab each other. Without Anwar at the  helm, PAS and DAP, the two ‘sworn-enemies-turned-friends-turned-sworn-enemies are back at each other’s throat again.  Amanah, the off shoot from PAS, was not an effective replacement for obtaining suburban and rural Malay votes.

The general perception is that UMNO and PAS  must have probably come to some undisclosed  agreement to work hand in hand, (or just help each other). The clearest evidence is the private member’s bill by PAS president which was expediated in Parliament. Isn’t it strange that the ruling party would expediate a bill put forward by a major opposition party? Well, this is the politics of the Land of the Wayang Kulit; expect lots of shadow plays. Who is the best in shadow play? You know better than me.

PAS’s role in the two by elections is to split opposition votes, something of a spoiler. The results showed just that. But even without PAS, Amanah would not have won anyway, as the total of votes for opposition fell short of the votes obtained by UMNO candidates. So actually PAS is just the fallback insurance. Even without it, BN would have won even in a one-against-one contest,

Why?

Many of those who have voted for the opposition in the last GE  were disappointed with the opposition parties, which have not lived up to expectations. The disarray, the power struggles, the backstabbing were not what the supporters have hoped for. The Kajang move, the PAS-DAP rows, the infightings in PKR, the DAP-PKR three cornered fights in Sarawak, all these give a perception that all  the  opposition parties care about is getting power for themselves. Not to mention some questionable deals in opposition held states which have been highlighted in media.

For the next GE, a lot of these supporters-turned-disillusioned-fence-sitters will probably abstain. Some Chinese votes are expected to go back to BN, too, because of disappointment with the opposition. Between the Devils and the deep blue sea, if  the deep blue sea is not any better, so why not go back to the Devils? At least the Devils are more familiar.

Many of those I have spoken to have indicated that they would probably take a overseas vacation during the next GE, and not cast any votes. These are the urban educated people, the so called intelligentsia. Contrast this with the last GE when many of these same people were asking their friends and children overseas to come back to vote against BN.

What this means is that BN will probably do better in the next GE, as in the case of the recently Sarawak election.

Following the momentum of the by election victories and from a renewed position of strength,PM will probably call the next GE soon, since at this stage, with one-against-one contests unlikely as in the last GE, BN should win back many seats due to expected three cornered fights in many areas. Opposition can only expected to win in hardcore anti-BN areas, but that will not be enough to topple BN.

The opposition parties should by now realize that the biggest hurdle on the road to Putajaya is themselves; they have scored too many own goals that even a scandal tainted  and weakened BN team can beat them easily.

In all probabilities, BN may even win more than two-third of federal seats, and it would be back to square one for everybody!